Ole Miss vs. Florida, Current Betting Odds:
- Florida -3.5 points
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Ole Miss vs. Florida Best Bet Prediction:
- Ole Miss +3.5 points
Trust the best quarterback in the country and bet on Ole Miss against the spread.
When Ole Miss Is on Offense
Ole Miss runs a pass-heavy offense similar to the version it ran under Lane Kiffin.
New offensive coordinator John David Baker joined Ole Miss from East Carolina but previously spent time on Kiffin's staff in Oxford.
Ole Miss likes to play fast and get the ball out quickly, and Trinidad Chambliss has mastered that style of play over the last two seasons.
According to Pro Football Focus, Chambliss has released the ball in under 2.5 seconds on 58% of his dropbacks, the nation's 14th-highest rate.
That makes it almost impossible to get pressure on Chambliss and puts a ton of pressure on the secondary to step up and make plays against short, quick throws.
As a result, Ole Miss has allowed pressure on just 22.8% of dropbacks, ranked 30th in the FBS, per Sports Info Solutions.
An impressive rate considering it has already faced two playoff contenders in LSU and Louisville.
The quick passing attack is likely to neutralize Florida's pass rush, which sacked Auburn's Byrum Brown 7 times last week.
Brown's inability to make quick decisions made Florida's pass-rush unit look more dangerous than it will against better quarterbacks.
Brown held the ball for at least 2.5 seconds on 78% of his dropbacks, facing pressure on 49% of those plays and taking all 7 sacks on those extended dropbacks.
Knowing that pressure will be harder to come by in this matchup, Florida should be concerned by its performance against clean dropbacks.
Take a look at Florida's numbers against FBS opponents when failing to generate pressure, according to Sports Info Solutions:
- 68% completion rate, ranked 70th
- 6.9 yards per attempt, ranked 48th
To be fair, the Gators have played two capable offenses (Auburn and Florida Atlantic), but Chambliss is the Heisman frontrunner for a reason and will likely carve up the Gators' secondary.
These numbers should make Ole Miss confident in its offense, even though star running back Kewan Lacy is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Without Lacy, Ole Miss might struggle to run the ball against a solid Florida defensive front.
The Gators have allowed just 1.3 yards before contact per attempt to running backs this year, ranked 35th.
Ole Miss isn't going to abandon the running game, however, partly because of the importance of RPOs in the offense.
Through three games, 29% of Ole Miss' offensive plays have been RPOs, the nation's 12th-highest rate, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Although Florida faced some RPOs last week against Auburn, Brown elected to hand the ball off on every play.
Chambliss is significantly more aggressive at keeping the ball on RPOs, throwing the ball out of RPOs at a 43% rate (FBS average: 28%).
Ole Miss RPOs will be a new test for Florida's defense in its first year under coordinator Brad White, who previously held the same job at Kentucky.
When Florida Is on Offense
Based on situational data from FourthAndShort, Florida has thrown the ball at a rate 2.3% below expected this season.
That run-heavy approach is consistent with coordinator Buster Faulkner‘s trends from his days at Georgia Tech, where he also ran the ball at above-expected rates in each of his three seasons with the Yellow Jackets.
What makes Faulker's rushing attack unique at the college level is how often he leans on heavier personnel.
Against FBS opponents, Florida has used 12 personnel on 56% of its handoffs, according to Sports Info Solutions.
This could give the Gators an edge against defenses built to defend spread offense that don't typically face more physical, heavy-personnel rushing attacks.
This potentially applies to Pete Golding‘s defense at Ole Miss, which rarely stacks the box and leans heavily on 3-3-5 and 2-4-5 formations.
So far this year, Golding has stacked the box against just 17% of rushing attempts (average is 45%).
However, Golding's defense has fared surprisingly well against 12 personnel despite his light-box approach.
Ole Miss has faced just 17 rush attempts against 12 personnel this season, with 12 of those carries coming from Charlotte.
In 2025, however, Ole Miss held Georgia to just 3.8 yards per carry out of 12 personnel on 26 attempts in two games, and limited Miami to just 38 yards on 10 carries in the playoffs.
Ole Miss did lose some key defenders in the offseason, but Will Echoles remains.
He is arguably the nation's most dominant interior defensive lineman and the most valuable piece of Golding's run defense.
When Florida does turn to the passing game, quarterback Aaron Philo tends to spend a lot of time in the pocket looking to attack downfield.
That strategy has led to some big plays for the Gators, but has also invited a ton of pressure thanks to an offensive line that was rebuilt through the transfer portal.
When Florida quarterbacks have held the ball for at least 2.5 seconds against FBS opponents, they have faced pressure on 54.5% of their dropbacks, ranked 106th according to Pro Football Focus.
That's concerning given the competition (Florida Atlantic and Auburn) and the fact that Ole Miss enters this game generating a 53% pressure rate on extended dropbacks (ranked 33rd), including 8 sacks through three games.
Don't expect Florida to shy away from those extended dropbacks, however, because Philo has a stable of weapons at wide receiver, and Florida will want to attack downfield.
In his two games against FBS opponents, Philo is 9 for 14 on throws 15 or more yards downfield.
Ole Miss' secondary may be vulnerable to the deep ball this season, so expect Philo to take some shots.
In 2025, Golding's defense ranked fifth in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (29.8%), according to Sports Info Solutions.
That rate sits at 56% so far this season, however, potentially raising some concern for a secondary that had to replace both starting safeties from last year's squad.
Final Thoughts on Ole Miss vs. Florida Best Bets
This line is fishy, but let's trust Chambliss and bet Ole Miss against the spread.
The argument for Florida is the fact that this is a classic letdown game for Ole Miss coming off an emotional win against Lane Kiffin and LSU.
Unquantifiable factors like that can certainly decide college football games, but I prefer to trust the numbers, and the stats tell us Ole Miss is the better team in nearly every phase of the game.