The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Philadelphia Eagles could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Philadelphia Eagles 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-Vic Fangio is still the defensive coordinator, and the Eagles have a talented defense. Philadelphia was seventh in yards allowed per play (4.9), 13th in yards allowed per game (314.2), fifth in pressure rate, eighth in points allowed per drive (1.79), and ninth in defensive points allowed per game (19.0) last year. After losing Jaelan Phillips to the Panthers in free agency, the club filled his vacancy with a draft-day trade for Jonathan Greenard. They also hope they cleaned up a messy spot at perimeter cornerback opposite Quinyon Mitchell by signing Riq Woolen in free agency.
-The Eagles bottomed out on offense last year with Kevin Patullo as the team’s offensive coordinator. They’ve moved on, and Sean Mannion will get his first crack at being an offensive coordinator. Patullo’s offense lacked creativity, and the Eagles ranked 28th in motion rate on offense. They were also below average in motion rate with Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator in 2024, but they were a far more potent offense with many of the same core pieces.
-Philadelphia was 32nd in penalty margin, 32nd in defensive penalty EPA, and 31st in net penalty EPA in 2025.
Reasons for the Under
-Injuries were not an issue for the Eagles last year. They were fifth in offensive health, 11th in defensive health, and second in total health in 2025. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and DeVonta Smith didn’t miss any games due to injury, and A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert each missed just one game due to injury. Brown has since been traded, but the rest of that core could face more injury issues in 2026.
-Philadelphia’s eight wins in one-score games ranked second last season. They also lost four times in one-score contests. Still, their .667 win percentage in one-score games was tied for seventh.
-The Eagles were comfortably first in red-zone touchdown percentage last year at 70.5%, besting Cincinnati’s 66.7% red-zone touchdown percentage in second and blowing the NFL average of 57.3% out of the water. Obviously, Philadelphia’s Brotherly Shove is a weapon at the goal line. Nevertheless, they ranked 13th in red-zone touchdown percentage (57.4%) in 2024 and fourth (61.5%) from 2022 to 2024. Not even the offensive line and Hurts’ dominance on tush-push plays can explain their NFL-best red-zone touchdown percentage last year.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
- Coaching strategic advice for teams, play-calling analysis & team tendencies
- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams