Texas vs. Tennessee, Current Betting Odds:
- Texas -4.5 points
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Texas vs. Tennessee Best Bet Prediction:
- Texas -4.5 points
If you're skeptical about Arch Manning on the road, that's fair, but trust the Longhorns' defense and rushing attack and play Texas against the spread.
When Texas Is on Offense
Texas runs a balanced offense under head coach and play-caller Steve Sarkisian, though it's more aggressive than most balanced schemes because he tends to attack downfield.
Outside the red zone, Texas threw the ball 15 or more yards downfield at the nation's 10th-highest rate last year.
Those downfield attempts didn't yield many big plays, though, as the Longhorns ranked 90th in explosive play rate, gaining 20 or more yards on just 6% of their offensive snaps.
Part of the issue was the receiving corps, so Sark added the portal's best offensive weapon, Cam Coleman.
However, Texas didn't change quarterbacks.
Arch Manning completed just 44% of his throws of 15 or more yards outside the red zone last year, and through three games in 2026, he has perfectly replicated that rate, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Against Ohio State, Manning was just 1 for 7 with an interception on throws 15 or more yards downfield.
Texas should also worry about its downfield passing attack because of Tennessee's pass rush.
Because Texas likes to throw downfield, Manning holds the ball longer than most quarterbacks.
Through three games, Manning has held the ball for at least 2.5 seconds on 63% of his dropbacks, the 12th-highest rate in the country, according to Pro Football Focus.
That could be problematic against Tennessee, which has generated pressure on 71% of dropbacks lasting at least 2.5 seconds, leading the nation.
The Vols haven't played the toughest schedule, but that number does include an 81% rate against Georgia Tech.
Manning's performance on extended dropbacks was an issue against Ohio State, as evidenced by these numbers when holding the ball for 2.5 seconds or longer:
- 52% completion rate
- 4.2 yards per attempt
- 1 interception, 2 sacks
So will Sark adjust and lean more on the quick passing attack?
It's possible, but he didn't show any signs of adjusting against the Buckeyes.
Against Ohio State, Manning took extended dropbacks at a 72% rate, even higher than his season average.
It may also be difficult for Sark to adjust because Texas' receivers are better downfield separators than YAC-creators on shorter throws.
On throws five or fewer yards downfield, Texas is averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt, ranked 60th, per Sports Info Solutions.
It might be worth trying, however.
Tennessee only returned one starter to the secondary and filled the other four jobs with transfers, so communication in the unit might still be an issue just four games into the season.
That said, the Vols' pass defense has been buttoned up enough to prevent major mistakes and has allowed 20 or more yards on just 2.1% of pass attempts, the nation's second-lowest rate.
If Texas struggles in the passing attack, it might be able to pivot to a more run-centric approach against the Vols.
Tennessee has shown some cracks against the run.
They have avoided this weakness causing problems primarily because the defense has yet to take the field while trailing.
However, opposing running backs are gaining 2.4 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 102nd, which could allow Texas to dominate this game on the ground.
Texas' offensive line struggled in the run game last year.
Longhorn running backs ranked 106th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact per attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions.
However, the early-season results indicate improvement on the line.
Against Ohio State, Texas running backs averaged 1.9 yards before contact per attempt, a rate they surpassed against just one power-conference opponent in 2025 (Texas A&M).
The Vol defense has also been vulnerable to giving up big plays on the ground this season, surrendering 10 or more yards on 18% of carries, ranked 128th.
The Longhorns' rushing attack has not been as explosive as expected 一 it ranks 74th in explosive rush rate 一 but the offseason additions of Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State) definitely upgraded the big-play potential in the backfield.
So even if Tennessee's pass rush gives Manning some trouble, it looks like Texas should be able to move the ball on the ground, which could allow Texas to control the game.
When Tennessee Is on Offense
Tennessee has run a balanced offense in recent years, ever since Josh Heupel took over play-calling after his more pass-heavy former coordinator, Alex Golesh (now at Auburn), left for South Florida.
So far this season, Heupel has become even more conservative, likely due to the inexperience of true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon.
Through three games, Tennessee's pass rate has been 4.5% below expected based on situational data from FourthAndShort.
The strategy has worked well due to Tennessee's dominance in the run game.
In their two games against FBS opponents, Tennessee running backs are averaging 3.9 yards before contact per attempt, the nation's leading rate per Sports Info Solutions.
But how much can we trust that production when the Vols have only faced Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State?
A year ago, Tennessee ranked 50th in opponent-adjusted rushing yards before contact, and an improvement of this magnitude was not expected from the offensive line.
The biggest clue that Tennessee's rushing dominance might be a mirage was Georgia Tech's performance against Colorado.
Deion Sanders‘ squad has become well known for its horrid offensive line play and lack of run game, and yet Colorado running backs picked up 194 yards on the ground while averaging 2.0 yards before contact per attempt against the Yellow Jackets.
That was the most yardage gained by Buffs running backs in a game under Sanders.
There's also reason to be concerned about Tennessee's rushing attack because running back DeSean Bishop appeared to suffer a hip injury last week and was limited for the rest of the game.
Bishop is expected to play, but if he's less than full strength, it would be cause for concern given his role as the workhorse in the backfield.
Texas' defense will also pose a significant challenge for the Vols due to its ability to crowd the line of scrimmage and limit open lanes.
The Longhorns ranked seventh in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed last season, and they limited Ohio State running backs to just 0.9 yards before contact per attempt in Week 2.
If Heupel is forced to turn to the passing game more often in this matchup, Brandon will face significant pressure to make quick decisions, and the offensive line will have to protect its freshman quarterback.
Heupel's version of the veer-and-shoot offense typically asks its quarterback to get rid of the ball quickly, and we haven't seen Brandon forced to execute against a quality defense yet.
Against Georgia Tech in Week 2, Brandon got the ball out in under 2.5 seconds on 52% of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus.
That was actually slightly higher than veteran Joey Aguilar‘s average rate in 2025 (49%).
That's a good sign that Brandon has picked up the offense quickly, but Texas' defense obviously poses a different challenge.
When Brandon gets the ball out quickly, he'll avoid pressure, but that doesn't mean it will be easy for Tennessee to move the ball.
On throws released in under 2.5 seconds, the Longhorn defense has allowed just 4.9 yards per attempt, ranked 17th.
That includes an impressive 5.2 yards per attempt allowed against Ohio State's explosive passing attack.
The bigger challenge for Tennessee's passing attack will come when Brandon can't get rid of the ball quickly.
When opposing quarterbacks hold the ball for at least 2.5 seconds, Texas has generated pressure at a 62% rate, ranked eighth in the country.
That trend doesn't bode well for Brandon based on these numbers from his one start against a power-conference opponent (Georgia Tech):
Time to Throw Comp% Yds/att Pressure Rate Under 2.5 sec 54% 6.2 0% 2.5 sec or more 38% 8.5 50%
On many of those extended dropbacks, Brandon will be trying to throw the ball downfield, and the jury is still out on how he'll perform as a downfield passer.
Outside the red zone, Tennessee has thrown the ball 15 or more yards downfield 22% of the time against FBS opponents, in line with its 2025 average.
However, Brandon has completed just 3 of 9 throws in that situation.
The sample size is not large enough to call it a concern, but it is certainly a major question mark as he goes up against what might be the best defense he'll face all season.
The Vols should also be mildly concerned about his lack of support at wide receiver.
Texas had some issues containing Jeremiah Smith, but nothing on the Vols roster comes close to that level of talent.
Tennessee's leading receiver is Mike Matthews, who, when removing screen passes, has a 12% drop rate over the last two seasons.
The fact that Matthews has commanded a 33% target share despite inconsistent production certainly raises questions about Heupel's trust in his depth at the position.
So if Tennessee's rushing game takes a step back in this matchup and Brandon isn't ready to carry the offense, this could be a long day for the Vols offense.
Final Thoughts on Texas vs. Tennessee Best Bets
The Longhorns defense is probably too much for Tennessee to handle with an inexperienced quarterback, so let's play Texas against the spread.
If we needed to trust Manning to keep pace in a shootout, I might side with the home team, but there are too many unanswered questions about Tennessee's inexperienced offense to trust them to put up a big number against a Longhorns defense that already proved itself against Ohio State.