Tracking NFL Betting Line Movements: Post-Preseason Week 2

We will be keeping track of line movements in the futures markets all season long and note any big movements on a weekly basis.

*All lines are based on Draftkings odds from 8/12/21 and 8/22/21

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Offensive Rookie of the Year:

Justin Fields +850 to +600
Trey Lance +800 to +700
Kyle Pitts +750 to +1000
Zach Wilson +1000 to +750
Ja’Marr Chase +1000 to +1600
Jaylen Waddle +1800 to +2000
Devonta Smith +1800 to +2200
Trey Sermon +3500 to +2500
Kadarius Toney +2800 to +4000
Terrace Marshall Jr. +4000 to +3500

Move I Agree With: Justin Fields

As I noted in my value bets article, I still think Justin Fields is a value even after this line move. I know Matt Nagy reiterated this week that Andy Dalton will be the week one starter, but there are still three weeks left before that game for him to change his mind. Regardless, if Nagy really does want to “see Dalton in the regular season,” he won’t need to see him very long versus the Rams defensive line before it’s apparent he has seen enough. So with Fields playing as early as Week 1, I expect his number to be more in line with Trevor Lawrence as a co-favorite for the award once he does see the field. 

Move I Disagree With: Terrace Marshall Jr.

While I understand the move due to his first preseason game, history is just not on Marshall’s side to win this award. Since 2010, only one WR has won the award and that was Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 when Blake Bortles was the first quarterback selected (Johnny Manziel was second) and Bishop Sankey was the first running back selected, so not exactly the same caliber of competition that Marshall faces in this rookie class.

We don’t have to look back any further than last year when Justin Jefferson put up even better numbers than Beckham did in his rookie of the year but still finished a distant second to Justin Herbert in the voting. While Marshall may put together a great rookie season and be a viable option in fantasy, it’s hard to see him getting the type of opportunity to even approach Jefferson’s numbers with DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and Christian McCaffrey all vying for targets in Carolina.

Defensive Rookie of the Year:

Micah Parsons +500 to +550
Jamin Davis +750 to +800
Kwity Paye +1000 to +1200
Patrick Surtain +1400 to +1200
Carlos Basham Jr +2500 to +3500
Ronnie Perkins +2800 to +3500

Move I Agree With: Ronnie Perkins

In his second preseason game, Perkins was given ample playing time getting 51% of the defensive snaps but failed to record a sack or even a tackle versus the Eagles’ backups. Perkins just doesn’t have any easy path to this award both because he doesn’t have any easy path to playing time and because of the history of past winners. The Patriots brought in Matt Judon and Kyle Van Noy in the offseason to go along with last year’s draft picks in Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings who are all currently listed ahead of Perkins on the depth chart. On top of that, in the past 25 years of the award, no player has won it that was drafted after Round 2. 

Move I Disagree With: Carlos Basham Jr.

This is somewhat counterintuitive because I agree that his odds went in the right direction but feel like he is still overvalued at +3500. Comparing that to the other sites, he is +1500 at BetMGM and he isn’t even listed on FanDuel, which seems more in line for a player that is currently listed third at his position on the Buffalo Bills’ depth chart. As I mentioned in the writeup in my value bets article for Azeez Ojulari, sometimes opportunity is just as important as talent. While Basham Jr. does have talent, it’s difficult to see him having the opportunity in Buffalo to be able to win this award.

Miscellaneous Line Movements:

Surprisingly there was very little movement in the rest of the futures markets in the past 10 days but one team did have some movement, the Dallas Cowboys.

Super Bowl Winner: +3000 to +3500
Conference Winner: +1500 to +1600
Division Winner: +130 to +150

This move was due to the uncertainty surrounding the health of Dak Prescott and the conflicting reports coming out of Dallas in the past 10 days. So I think the move is warranted as Dak himself said on Hard Knocks that he is on a “pitch count” even in practice, which isn’t a great sign three weeks away from their first game. For a team that ranked 23rd on defense in DVOA in 2020 that didn’t make major upgrades, they would need Prescott to not only be fully healthy but to play at an MVP level in order to be serious contenders this year.