The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the 49ers vs. Falcons Week 7 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 27.0 | Implied Total | 23.5 | ||
| 29.5 | 3 | Points/Gm | 23.7 | 16 |
| 18.3 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 25.5 | 23 |
| 57.3 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 60.0 | 24 |
| 63.2 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.7 | 28 |
| 6.4 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 10 |
| 4.7 | 4 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 11 |
| 48.8% | 6 | Rush% | 49.2% | 4 |
| 51.2% | 27 | Pass% | 50.8% | 29 |
| 39.6% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 34.8% | 1 |
| 60.4% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 65.3% | 32 |
- The 49ers are one of two remaining teams (Buffalo being the other) that have not trailed at the half in any game yet this season.
- Atlanta has trailed by double digits for 30% of their offensive snaps, the 3rd-highest rate in the league.
- The 49ers reach third down on 41.8% of their set of downs, 5th in the league.
- When they do reach third down, the 49ers have converted a league-high 51.5% (34 of 66).
- The Falcons have allowed 2.43 points per drive over the past three weeks (28th), up from 1.59 points per drive in the opening three games (5th).
Trust = spike production for that player
49ers vs. Falcons Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Brock Purdy
Purdy was efficient again on Monday night, completing 21 of 29 passes (72.4%) for 264 yards (9.1 Y/A) and a touchdown.
He also rushed for 28 yards, marking the fifth time this season he's added 20-plus yards on the ground.
Purdy was pacing to have a high-end scoring week.
He was 17 of 22 (77.3%) for 214 yards with a score at halftime on Monday.
But then the offense bogged down in the second half, and Purdy was limited to a back-end QB1 scoring week (17.4 points).
It was his third straight game falling just short of 20 fantasy points.
The 49ers built a 20-3 lead at the half and then eased up in the second half, with an injury to Mike Evans adding to the problem.
In the second half on Monday, Purdy was only 4 of 7 for 50 yards.
San Francisco only managed 4.4 yards per play after Evans left the game.
In the second half, they had an opening drive that gained 65 yards and led to a field goal.
Then they managed only 2 total yards on their final three possessions, with three punts.
That could be happenstance, since Evans has missed a chunk of time this season, and we haven't seen it affect them much.
But mounting injuries could have slowed the offense some.
They still had Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle, but Purdy's second-half wide receivers on Monday were Jordan Watkins, Brandin Cooks, and Jacob Cowing.
Evans is expected to finally sit this week (the 49ers are on bye in Week 8), so they will be working with a limited group again.
Christian Kirk is eligible to return this week from a calf injury that has sidelined him since late July, but he's been on the shelf for months, and we don't know what he has in him after two down seasons.
I wouldn't go into panic mode over a three-drive sample to end the game on Monday, but Purdy's potential lack of heavy artillery at wide receiver is a variable that could limit his ceiling.
Even if we're pricing in some variance here, it is hard to suggest streaming for Purdy when the 49ers still have a 26.5-point team total.
The Falcons aren't a defense we fear, so Purdy still has avenues to get over as a fantasy QB1.
Atlanta is allowing 17.1 passing points per game (27th).
Over the past two weeks, both the Ravens and Bears have adopted a quick passing attack to move the ball against Atlanta and counter its aggressive defense.
In Week 5, Tyler Huntley averaged 4.7 air yards per throw (28th).
On Sunday, Caleb Williams averaged a league-low 2.9 air yards per throw.
Together, the two completed 54 of 68 passes (79.4%) in those games for 7.4 Y/A, with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Huntley had a 53.7% success rate and Williams a 52.3% rate, the only two quarterbacks this season to face Atlanta with a 50% success rate.
It will be interesting to see how Atlanta wants to defend this offense.
With Evans out, they may not respect the remaining pass-catchers and will play aggressively, but Purdy rarely sees much man coverage or high blitz rates because that has often led to a swift death.
Atlanta is only playing man coverage 20% of the time (13th), but the Ravens' and Bears' approach over the past two weeks frustrated them into trying to manufacture pressure.
Atlanta had its two highest blitz rates of the season in the past two weeks: 31.7% and 34.2%.
Purdy has been blitzed only 26.8% of the time (25th in the league), but when he has been blitzed this season, he has thrown for a league-high 10.0 yards per pass attempt, with 7 touchdowns and 1 interception.
There is also a non-zero chance the Falcons are who we thought they could be this preseason, given injuries on the defensive line and in the secondary.
Bryce Young carved them up in Week 2 (287 yards and 3 touchdowns), and their top showings to open the year have been against three of the worst offensive lines (at the time of playing them): Pittsburgh (who have since changed their entire right side), Green Bay (in that Thursday night bloodshed), and the Saints (a week after Kelvin Banks was injured).
Michael Penix
Using jailbreak game conditions to propel his fantasy production, Penix had his best fantasy game of the season on Sunday, finishing as the QB4 (23.1 points).
Through three quarters, Penix had completed 8 of 16 passes for 73 yards (4.6 Y/A) with a touchdown.
Down 31-7 to open the final quarter, Penix then gobbled up garbage time, going 11 of 17 for 152 yards (8.9 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and 2 two-point conversions.
Penix has been shaky the past two weeks, completing 59.4% and 57.6% of his passes after connecting on 72% and 75% in his first two starts.
Keeping Penix clean has been an issue.
After pressure rates of 20% and 23.8% in his first two starts, he has been pressured on 37.8% and 46.2% of his dropbacks in the past two games.
When pressured this season, Penix is 10 of 32 (31.3%) for 6.9 Y/A with a 22% sack rate.
Without pressure, Penix is 61 of 78 (78.2%) for 9.3 Y/A, with 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The 49ers struggled to get to the quarterback after initially losing Nick Bosa, but over the past two weeks, San Francisco has had pressure rates of 51.4% (3rd) and 45.7% (3rd).
San Francisco has 9 sacks in the past two weeks, second in the league.
The 49ers already have a good pass defense, so if they start creating pressure at those rates, they can take another step.
The 49ers allow 12.7 passing points per game (12th), 6.3 yards per pass attempt (9th), and a 3.3% touchdown rate (9th).
Raheem Morris and Penix have familiarity with each other, but you'd have to buy that Morris has the leg up here.
The 49ers try to force teams to throw short, and Penix loves to push the ball downfield.
42% of Penix's throws are 10 or more yards downfield, fourth in the league.
The 49ers have allowed a 41.5% completion rate on those throws, fourth in the league.
If you are looking for a runway for Penix to get fantasy points as a QB2, it would look like last week.
The 49ers have allowed two QB1 scoring weeks this season.
Those were Jacoby Brissett and Jayden Daniels, who each scored double-digit fantasy points in the fourth quarter.
San Francisco is 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in the fourth quarter compared to sixth over the opening three quarters.
49ers vs. Falcons Fantasy Running Back Preview
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LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 7 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Bears | Thursday Night Football |
| Steelers vs. Saints | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Browns @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Buccaneers @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Seahawks | Sunday Night Football |
| Cowboys @ Eagles | Monday Night Football |