The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Dolphins and Bengals.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.0 | Spread | 1.0 | ||
| 25.75 | Implied Total | 24.75 | ||
| 22.4 | 20 | Points/Gm | 21.1 | 23 |
| 31.2 | 32 | Points All./Gm | 23.1 | 16 |
| 61.1 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 55.9 | 29 |
| 63.1 | 25 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.2 | 10 |
| 5.1 | 22 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 14 |
| 6.4 | 32 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 21 |
| 34.46% | 32 | Rush% | 44.57% | 14 |
| 65.54% | 1 | Pass% | 55.43% | 19 |
| 46.83% | 26 | Opp. Rush % | 46.62% | 24 |
| 53.17% | 7 | Opp. Pass % | 53.38% | 9 |
- The Bengals have a league-worst -30 differential in plays of 20 or more yards compared to their opponents.
- The Bengals have allowed a touchdown on 31.7% of opponent drives, 31st in the league.
- Cincinnati is allowing a league-high 6.4 yards per play on early downs.
- The Bengals average 70.5 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponents, the worst margin in the league.
- Miami has a gain of 10 or more yards on 15.1% of their rushing plays, 3rd in the NFL.
- The Dolphins have a 46.5% success rate on rushing plays since Week 8, 2nd in the league.
- Miami has converted 40% (8 of 20) of their red zone trips into touchdowns at home, 31st in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Joe Burrow: Sunday was a day to forget for Burrow.
He closed the week as the QB30 (5.5 points), completing 25 of 39 passes (64.1%) for 225 yards (5.8 Y/A) with 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
It was the first shutout of his career.
Burrow referred to it as “one of the worst games I’ve ever played.”
The vibes around Burrow have been off for the past two weeks, and it has been an obviously challenging season for him, given injuries and his lack of success.
The Bengals themselves had odd vibes on Sunday.
Typically, they are pass-heavy and willing to lose going down fighting through the air.
They threw the ball 7% below expectations on Sunday and 21% below expectations on first downs.
Burrow also did not have Tee Higgins, something we have called out as noteworthy in the past two seasons.
This season, Burrow has completed 58.1% of his passes for 5.7 Y/A without Higgins on the field compared to a 64.1% completion rate and 6.7 Y/A with Higgins on the field.
Higgins is still in concussion protocol but was practicing last week in a limited capacity.
The Bengals may shut him down now that they have been eliminated from the postseason, but we will follow his status this week, nonetheless.
If Higgins does return, then Burrow gets a significant boost here.
Even without Higgins, Burrow remains an upside QB1 and is in a position to bounce back.
Miami has been a target for fantasy points through the air, while the Bengals are still sporting a solid team total.
The Dolphins are 25th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.47).
They slowed down Brady Cook in Week 14, but since their Week 12 bye outside of that game, Miami has allowed Tyler Shough (17.4 points) and Aaron Rodgers (17.0 points) to produce viable fantasy lines.
Rodgers completed 85.2% of his passes for 8.3 Y/A on Monday night against Miami.
Quinn Ewers: Miami is making a change at quarterback this week, allowing Ewers to show them something to close the season.
We have only seen Ewers come in to clean up a game against the Browns, completing 5 of 8 attempts for 53 yards.
As a prospect, Ewers took a step back in 2024, his final year in college.
He completed 65.8% of his passes after 69% in 2023.
He averaged 7.8 yards per attempt after 8.8 Y/A in 2023.
His interception rate climbed to 2.7% after a 1.5% rate in 2023.
He posted a higher touchdown rate (6.9%) this past season than in 2023 (5.6%), which is a silver lining.
Ewers played through most of the season with an oblique injury, giving him a pass to some degree.
That may have led to him having more manufactured for him than any quarterback in the class last season.
Only 16.4% of his passes came without play action, motion, or screens, the lowest rate in the class.
28.2% of his throws were at or behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the class.
That is something Mike McDaniel will surely have in the game plan.
Ewers is a fantasy QB2, but the floor is low for Ewers to clear what Miami was getting out of Tua Tagovailoa.
We know Miami will lean on the run if they are permitted to, something that is a potential outcome here.
Miami is 29th in pass rate over expectations (-3.2%) and has thrown the ball 6.4% below expectations over their past nine games.
If Miami is pushed and Ewers is playing above expectations, this is an excellent matchup.
The Bengals have allowed a 66.4% completion rate (23rd), 8.1 yards per pass attempt (31st), and a 6.4% touchdown rate (30th).
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ Seahawks | Thursday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Saturday -- 5 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Bears | Saturday -- 8:20 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Texans | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| 49ers @ Colts | Monday Night Football |