Best Ball Fantasy Football: Best Ball Confidence Rankings Update, Schedule Release

This is the post-NFL schedule release update to our confidence rankings.

We will be putting out a biweekly article till training camp, but occasionally I will update the rankings so feel free to check in on the site a few days after any breaking news.

As a reminder, here are short explanations of the rankings.

Tiers can be as few as two to three players very early in drafts and could be one to three rounds later in drafts.

  • Target: Someone who you can safely draft a tier above ADP and maybe two, although I will rarely draft someone two tiers ahead because I can normally wait and add them.
  • Value: Someone I favor within a tier. Someone you will reach some for but will almost always take if they are the top ADP on the board.
  • Neutral: About 50% of players are neutral at any given time. I rarely will reach for them unless they complete a stack or help with a particular build.
  • Caution: Someone I typically will not pick at ADP unless they complete a stack or positionally they are the best player on the board. Ideally, I get my exposure to caution players when they drop a tier below ADP.
  • Avoid: Someone who typically is going two tiers or more ahead of when I value them. I rarely take an avoid player unless they fall a full tier and are a stack partner with someone on my roster.

Click here for Tod’s updated Best Ball Confidence Rankings as part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit

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2024 Best Ball Rankings Update

The dust has fully settled from the NFL draft, and we are starting to move into hype guys in shorts season, especially rookies.

With that in mind, rather than going by our normal categories, I want to hit players in certain trends who are especially important to understand and how they have actively changed how I view the draft board since our last update and the podcast I did with Rich Hribar (below).

With the release of the NFL schedule on Wednesday, we also want to take a quick look at how the schedule affects how we view drafting.

 

Both of the first two trends cover running backs.

The first is about the strategy of taking one of the top three RBs in the first round whenever you can, something affected by the fact that RBs continue to be pushed down and wide receivers pushed up.

With Kyren Williams and De’Von Achane falling into the late second round, it opens up starting with one of the top four WRs and then taking one of those two RBs in the second round.

This is as strong as the strategy I outlined and had been practicing earlier, especially with a value dip.

Rich and I also discussed WRs in the late second and early third rounds, and I am starting to draft more and more teams like this.

Derrick Henry and Travis Etienne have also fallen to the late third or early fourth round, and another way to handle things is to take one of those backs as your “anchor” RB.

All three strategies are viable, and I will be mixing them up as I move forward when I get a pick in the top six or seven.

The second trend is that since RBs in general have been so devalued, a lot of the RBs I was Targeting are now down to value. Also, a lot of the values are now down to neutral.

This only makes sense as what makes someone a value is being able to get something you can’t get elsewhere.

Most if not all of these changes happen in the “new” RB dead zone of rounds seven through 12.

Some examples of these changes in the order of ADP:

  • Rhamondre Stevenson from a target to a value
  • Zamir White from a value to a neutral as he has also gone up a round
  • D’Andre Swift from value to neutral
  • Despite continuing to fall, the vibes out of Denver have Javonte Williams down to value
  • Tyjae Spears from target to value
  • Zach Charbonnet from value to neutral
  • Kendre Miller from target to value

The one RB moving in the other direction is Marshawn Lloyd,who I was incredibly high on pre-draft but needed some time to rightly assess the situation in Green Bay. I have moved him from a caution to neutral.

2024 NFL Schedule Release

As far as the NFL schedule release, it is becoming more and more accepted that correlating players on your roster for Week 17 is a sound strategy in trying to finish first in major best ball tournaments.

But with Underdog Fantasy making payouts much flatter this year, the dynamic has greatly changed.

Now in contests like Best Ball Mania, if you max enter and get one of your 150 lineups into Week 17, the minimum payout for that one team for getting to Week 17 is exactly equal to what you paid to enter 150 teams, ensuring that you will almost certainly be profitable in that contest.

This makes Week 16 advancement extremely important. Just as Week 17 correlation at first was hotly debated, I expect the same for Week 16, but going forward in these updates we will be including both weeks in our thought processes.

My favorite combination of Week 16 and Week 17 matchups favors one team more than any other.

The San Francisco 49ers go to Miami to face the high-powered Dolphins and then in Week 17 host the high-powered Lions. This is the nut opportunity for me.

The cost of all three of the stud players on these teams is high, but the QBs ADP for all three teams is very reasonable, making stacking plausible.

This is going to cause slight value bumps to players for all three teams but especially San Francisco.

Other strong offenses with good initial Weeks 16 and 17:

  • Falcons home to Giants and away to Commanders
  • Texans at Chiefs and home to Ravens
  • Eagles at Commanders and home to Cowboys

And a couple of sneaky late stacks:

  • Giants at Falcons and home to Colts
  • Bears home to Lions and Seahawks

That’s it for now. Look for a more detailed update on the NFL schedule and how it affects the season and especially Week 16 and 17 next time.

Check out all the rankings and see which rookie WR whose ADP has skyrocketed that I am not an AVOID on!

2024 Best Ball Confidence Rankings: Top 36 Preview

Click here for Tod’s updated full rankings

  • Target (Green): Undervalued at ADP
  • Value (Blue): Slightly undervalued at ADP
  • Neutral (No Color): Correctly valued at ADP
  • Caution (Yellow): Slightly overvalued at ADP
  • Avoid (Red): Overvalued at ADP
Player POS Team POS ADP ADP Ranking
Christian McCaffrey RB San Francisco 49ers RB1 1.2 Neutral
CeeDee Lamb WR Dallas Cowboys WR1 2.1 Neutral
Tyreek Hill WR Miami Dolphins WR2 3.2 Neutral
Ja'Marr Chase WR Cincinnati Bengals WR3 4.1 Neutral
Justin Jefferson WR Minnesota Vikings WR4 5.3 Neutral
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Detroit Lions WR5 6.1 Neutral
Bijan Robinson RB Atlanta Falcons RB2 6.9 Value
Breece Hall RB New York Jets RB3 7.7 Neutral
Puka Nacua WR Los Angeles Rams WR6 9.4 Caution
A.J. Brown WR Philadelphia Eagles WR7 10.2 Neutral
Garrett Wilson WR New York Jets WR8 11.2 Neutral
Jahmyr Gibbs RB Detroit Lions RB4 12.1 Neutral
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Arizona Cardinals WR9 13.4 Neutral
Saquon Barkley RB Philadelphia Eagles RB5 15.0 Neutral
Jonathan Taylor RB Indianapolis Colts RB6 15.6 Value
Drake London WR Atlanta Falcons WR10 15.8 Caution
Brandon Aiyuk WR San Francisco 49ers WR11 17.6 Neutral
Chris Olave WR New Orleans Saints WR12 18.4 Neutral
Davante Adams WR Las Vegas Raiders WR13 19.2 Value
Kyren Williams RB Los Angeles Rams RB7 20.7 Value
Deebo Samuel WR San Francisco 49ers WR14 22.2 Neutral
De'Von Achane RB Miami Dolphins RB8 23.0 Neutral
Nico Collins WR Houston Texans WR15 23.1 Caution
Mike Evans WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR16 24.3 Value
Stefon Diggs WR Houston Texans WR17 25.9 Caution
DJ Moore WR Chicago Bears WR18 26.6 Neutral
Jaylen Waddle WR Miami Dolphins WR19 27.4 Value
Malik Nabers WR New York Giants WR20 28.7 Caution
Sam LaPorta TE Detroit Lions TE1 28.9 Neutral
Michael Pittman Jr. WR Indianapolis Colts WR21 30.3 Caution
Derrick Henry RB Baltimore Ravens RB9 31.5 Value
Josh Allen QB Buffalo Bills QB1 32.3 Neutral
DK Metcalf WR Seattle Seahawks WR22 32.7 Caution
DeVonta Smith WR Philadelphia Eagles WR23 33.2 Neutral
Cooper Kupp WR Los Angeles Rams WR24 35.0 Value
Jalen Hurts QB Philadelphia Eagles QB2 37.0 Neutral
Player POS Team Ranking

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