This is the offseason dead zone update to our confidence rankings.

We will be putting out a biweekly article until training camp, but occasionally I will update the rankings so feel free to check in on the site a few days after any breaking news.

As a reminder, here are short explanations of the rankings.

Tiers can be as few as two to three players very early in drafts and could be one to three rounds later in drafts.

  • Target: Someone who you can safely draft a tier above ADP and maybe two, although I will rarely draft someone two tiers ahead because I can normally wait and add them.
  • Value: Someone I favor within a tier. Someone you will reach some for but will almost always take if they are the top ADP on the board.
  • Neutral: About 50% of players are neutral at any given time. I rarely will reach for them unless they complete a stack or help with a particular build.
  • Caution: Someone I typically will not pick at ADP unless they complete a stack or positionally they are the best player on the board. Ideally, I get my exposure to caution players when they drop a tier below ADP.
  • Avoid: Someone who typically is going two tiers or more ahead of when I value them. I rarely take an avoid player unless they fall a full tier and are a stack partner with someone on my roster.

Click here for Tod’s updated Best Ball Confidence Rankings as part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit

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2024 Best Ball Rankings Update

As we head into the last update before camp, I have gone through everything with a fine tooth comb.

One of the interesting things about doing these confidence rankings and being a heavy volume drafter is a lot of it is based on my own experiences and players that I come around or cool down on.

You will see that with some of the players near the top of the draft board. But first, I want to hit on two players that I have moved from value to the exceedingly rare (since ADP is so efficient on Underdog Fantasy) target category.

  • Ray Davis is my most rostered running back, and he has dropped five spots since the last update. That’s enough to move him to target.
  • D’Onta Foreman has also been moved to target. With camps looming, I expect the competition with Jerome Ford to be much closer than ADP currently shows. I expect Foreman to be 2-3 rounds higher than he is now in the near future. Last chance to load up!

As mentioned, I have come around or lessened my enthusiasm for a variety of early-round players. I double checked myself to make sure this isn’t due to the slow season.

  • I have had Nico Collins as a caution all off season due to the addition of Stefon Diggs and his ADP not falling because of it. Now, I have moved him to neutral. He was as efficient as any receiver last season, and there is an overall lack of value in the second round.
  • Deebo Samuel is now neutral as well. It is the same reasoning with Collins as no one really stands out in the second round. There is also a chance Brandon Aiyuk gets traded.
  • Cooper Kupp has steadily moved up draft boards including two more spots since the last update. He is now a neutral.
  • I have moved both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts to value. Elite QB didn’t pay off last year, but the value now on both of these players in the fourth round is something to add, especially since quarterback ADP has risen in the past once more casual players enter contests.
  • Travis Etienne has been moved from value to neutral. He is a fine play in a vacuum, but the opportunity cost at WR or Elite QB/TE where he goes makes him neutral.
  • Calvin Ridley is a player I have not been drafting for a while, so I moved him to caution as more and more analysts point out he should be going behind DeAndre Hopkins, which is absolutely how I have been playing it to date.
  • C.J. Stroud has fallen five spots since the last update and is now neutral. I still tend to single stack him. He has in certain drafts fallen even further than his ADP.
  • Zach Moss is a player I haven’t drafted much, but when watching Hard Knocks it was mentioned he might be the best blocker in the NFL at the RB position. Therefore logically he should be on the field plenty to protect Joe Burrow coming back from injury and has been moved to neutral. I still value Chase Brown, and they are cheap enough together to stack them both on the same lineup.

Those are the most important players updated. To check out who was moved in the double digit rounds, check out our packages and we will see you next update!

2024 Best Ball Confidence Rankings: Top 36 Preview

Click here for Tod’s updated full rankings

  • Target (Green): Undervalued at ADP
  • Value (Blue): Slightly undervalued at ADP
  • Neutral (No Color): Correctly valued at ADP
  • Caution (Yellow): Slightly overvalued at ADP
  • Avoid (Red): Overvalued at ADP