The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Bills vs. Jets Week 10 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | NY Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | Spread | 7.5 | ||
| 29.0 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 32.0 | 1 | Points/Gm | 20.2 | 25 |
| 23.4 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 24.8 | 20 |
| 64.3 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 58.9 | 26 |
| 63.3 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 21 |
| 6.0 | 4 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 17 |
| 5.2 | 13 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 10 |
| 50.8% | 2 | Rush% | 43.6% | 16 |
| 49.2% | 31 | Pass% | 56.4% | 17 |
| 37.4% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 49.1% | 30 |
| 62.7% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 50.9% | 3 |
- The Bills reach third down on 39.1% of their set of downs, the lowest rate in the league.
- Buffalo has scored on a league-high 53.9% of their possessions.
- The Jets have a 55.1% success rate on defense, 31st.
- The Jets have allowed 2.86 points per drive over their past four games (31st) after allowing 1.85 points per drive prior (7th).
- The Jets have converted 40.7% (11 of 27) of red-zone trips into touchdowns, 31st.
- The Bills have converted 66.7% (23 of 33) of red-zone trips into touchdowns, 8th.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bills vs. Jets Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Josh Allen (TRUST)
Allen is coming off his lowest-scoring game of the year on Monday night, which was not surprising given the matchup against the Vikings.
Allen completed 21 of 31 passes (67.7%) for 234 yards (7.5 Y/A) with 1 touchdown and an interception.
He rushed 6 times for 15 yards.
Things get immediately better here against a Jets defense that has been bludgeoned in recent games.
They have given up top-10 weeks to Drake Maye (23.8 points), Malik Willis (26 points), Kirk Cousins (28.2 points), and Patrick Mahomes (16.5 points).
The Jets have allowed touchdown passes in four straight games.
They also have struggled against mobile passers, allowing Deshaun Watson (40 yards), Maye (24 yards), and Willis (37 yards and a touchdown) to add on multiple rushing points to their totals.
Geno Smith
We have picked our spots with Smith this season.
His three viable QB1 scores have come against the Lions, Dolphins, and Raiders.
All of those were strong individual matchups and were high-scoring game environments.
Those are the only three games in which the Jets scored 24 points this year.
This game has the potential to get there, which gives Smith appeal as an upside QB2.
The Bills have allowed 29 or more points in five games this season.
I say “potential” because I have been talking about this for a few weeks, but the Buffalo pass defense is not as bad as the top-down metrics look.
The implied team total for the Jets prices in the possibility that we fall short.
In the first half this season, Buffalo has allowed a 61.7% completion rate (13th), 6.0 yards per pass attempt (5th), 9.7 yards per completion (5th), and a 3.8% touchdown rate (15th).
They are allowing 89.6 passing yards per game in the first half, seventh in the league.
The Bills have led at the half in six of eight games and have not trailed at the half in any game.
In the second half, they have allowed a 60.5% completion rate (8th), 7.3 Y/A (16th), 12.0 yards per completion (24th), and a 6.2% touchdown rate (23rd).
They are allowing a league-high 143.3 passing yards per game in the second half.
10 of the 15 passing touchdowns they have allowed have come in the second half.
Now, we will gladly take any and all cosmetic points, so if the Jets are scoring close to the 23.4 points Buffalo allows, then we have some potential for points for Smith.
Even if they come late.
It's worth noting that Buffalo added safety Amani Hooker at the trade deadline.
Bills vs. Jets Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 10 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 10 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Commanders @ Giants | Thursday Night Football |
| Patriots vs. Lions | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Sunday Night Football |
| Chargers @ Ravens | Monday Night Football |