Bills vs. Rams Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Bills vs. Rams Week 5 matchup on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Bills vs. Rams Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Josh Allen (TRUST)

After a blistering start, Allen has cooled off the past two weeks (for his standards) with QB19 (17.5 points) and QB10 (18.5 points) finishes.

He has had just 1 touchdown in the past two weeks after 5 in the opening two games.

We came into last week wondering if Allen's knee injury was more than he and the team were letting on.

He did have a 2-yard plunge into the end zone on the ground, but he rushed for only 4 yards, his fewest in a full start since 2024.

From a scrambling and designed-run lens, nothing stood out compared to his other games this year.

He scrambled once, as he did in Week 1 and Week 3.

He had 4 designed runs, after 4, 6, and 6 coming into Sunday.

We want him back to creating on the ground because this is a tough spot on paper.

The Rams have allowed a 53.5% completion rate (2nd) and a league-low of 4.8 yards per pass attempt.

While the recent resume of Jalen Hurts, Bo Nix, and Jameis Winston is not intimidating, the defense did what good defenses do to those passers from an efficiency lens.

They also held Brock Purdy to a season-low 6.0 Y/A in Week 1.

Allen also may be without D.J. Moore here, who we will track this week.

That said, this is a “big game Josh Allen” spot, and we always look for him to take over.

Over the past six seasons, in games decided by a field goal or less in either direction, Allen has averaged a league-high 24.8 points per game.

As an underdog since 2020 (his breakout), Allen averages a league-high 26.6 fantasy points per game.

Last year, Allen was an underdog four times.

In those games, he scored 38.8, 30.2, 28.8, and 21.9 fantasy points, averaging 41.5 dropbacks per game.

Any time we can push Allen toward that number of dropbacks, we run to the bank.

I did mention the rushing to open, which is a big part of his production in big spots.

He rushed 12, 11, 6, and 14 times in those games with multiple rushing touchdowns in three of the four.

A few weeks ago, when the Bills played Detroit, we labeled that as a “smoke 'em if you got 'em” game, and we have that potential here.

Fire all the cannons and see what shakes out, because it could be a high-scoring game.

Matthew Stafford (TRUST)

Stafford did not play well in Philadelphia last week, completing 32 of 52 passes (62.7%) for 317 yards (6.2 Y/A) with zero touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Stafford has thrown 6 interceptions so far.

He threw 8 all of last season.

If it holds, Stafford's 3.7% interception rate would be an outlier.

Since his rookie season (5.3% interception rate), he's hit 3% just one other time.

I would expect those to get cleaned up along the way.

Stafford has thrown for 300 yards in three straight games.

After a sluggish opening in Australia, when the Rams threw 12.3% below pass-rate expectations, they have thrown 8.8%, 11.5%, and 5.7% over expectations over the past three weeks.

This game environment should keep that going.

Stafford has faced some strong defenses to start, including San Francisco, Denver, and Philadelphia.

He gets a softer outlook here.

The Bills are allowing 20.5 passing points per game, the second-most in the league.

They are allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt (20th) and a 6.8% touchdown rate (29th).

Buffalo is also beat up this week.

Ed Oliver (knee) and Dee Alford (ankle) left last week's game.

Christian Benford missed Week 4 with a toe injury.

Bills vs. Rams Fantasy Running Back Preview

James Cook

Cook had 14 touches for 83 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

He enters the week second in yards per rush (6.0 YPC), and fifth in success rate (48.6%).

He leads the league in the rate of runs of 10 or more yards (21.4%) while failing to gain yardage on a league-low 5.7% of his runs.

Cook is an elite rushing-dependent RB1.

The only real nitpick is his lack of consistent receiving work, which makes him need that hyper-efficiency as a runner.

Cook has 6 catches for 24 yards on the season.

With Ty Johnson back in Week 3, Cook has had route rates of 32.3% and 34.3% after opening with 50% and 57.9%.

The Rams have been good against the run, allowing 3.8 YPC to backs (12th) with no rushing touchdowns yet.

They have allowed a run of 10 or more yards on 4.7% of those runs (4th).

They haven't faced a running game like this in their last three games, facing the Eagles, Broncos, and Giants.

In Week 1, San Francisco backs rushed 24 times for 133 yards (5.5 YPC) versus the Rams.

Kyren Williams

Kyren has been red hot of late, ripping off three straight top-10 scoring weeks.

In Week 3, he had 21 touches for 158 yards, then followed up with 26 touches for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday.

Williams has stepped in as a pass-catcher as the Rams lose some ancillary pieces, raising his ceiling.

He has 16 catches for 137 yards in the past two weeks.

He has 20.2% of the targets over the past two weeks, RB3 over that span.

The Bills are 30th in receiving points allowed to backs (13.8 per game).

Williams has dominated this backfield over the past two games, playing 76.1% of snaps and out-touching Blake Corum 47 to 14.

With that type of usage, Williams is a strong RB1.

We always talked about Williams as the guy when the chips are down for the Rams because he plays in the passing game, and that has played out in these tight games.

Williams has also been efficient as a runner.

He is averaging 5.4 YPC (5th), a league-high 53.7% success rate, and has failed to gain yardage on only 7.4% of his runs, one spot below Cook.

Bills vs. Rams Fantasy Wide Receiver Preview

Puka Nacua (TRUST)

Nacua returned last week after missing the previous two games, and he immediately got back to work, catching 9 of 12 targets for 125 yards.

Nacua had no limitations, running a route on 90.7% of the dropbacks.

The Bills are facing 21.0 targets per game to receivers (28th), allowing 8.9 yards per target (22nd) and a 7.1% touchdown rate (27th).

All four of their primary cornerbacks have allowed over a 100 rating in coverage, and Christian Benford (124.4 rating when targeted) and Dee Alford (100.8 rating) are injured.

If those guys cannot play this week, Maxwell Hairston (114.4 rating when targeted) and Davison Igbinosun (115.2 rating when targeted) will be the primary corners.

Nico Collins (7-75-1), Amon-Ra St. Brown (9-142-2), and Romeo Doubs (6-58-2) have spiked for WR1 weeks against Buffalo so far.

Davante Adams (TRUST)

Adams took a bit of a backseat on Sunday, catching 4 of 9 targets for 32 yards.

He was targeted on a season-low 17% of his routes.

Since last year, Adams has been more touchdown-dependent playing with Nacua.

Adams has been targeted on 23.5% of his routes for 1.54 yards per route with Nacua on the field, compared to 33.5% per route with 3.23 yards per route when Nacua has been absent.

To be fair to Adams, he also ran into a sticky matchup last week.

The Bills have been far worse against receivers, as highlighted above.

And they are banged up at cornerback.

Buffalo has allowed 9.0 catches per game to outside receivers (26th), where Adams plays 88% of his snaps.

Even if Adams is more touchdown-based, the Bills allow a 9.3% touchdown rate to outside receivers (29th).

Keon Coleman

We're entering the week expecting the Bills to play it safe with D.J. Moore after he aggravated his shoulder injury last week.

That injury keeps limiting him unless he lets it heal.

The Bills have their bye in Week 7, so they could hold him out for the next two weeks and then bring him back after the bye, hopefully without risking a setback.

Moore has a history of playing through injuries, so we'll track his status, especially with Buffalo having an extra day off this week.

He's missed only two games in his career.

If Moore is held out, Coleman gets the largest lift.

When Moore has been off the field, Coleman has run a route on a team-high 79.7% of the dropbacks.

On those plays, Coleman has been targeted on 21.6% of his routes with 3.33 yards per route run.

Coleman has played well this year, catching 14 of 16 targets for 217 yards (15.5 yards per catch) and a score.

9 of those catches and 170 yards have come with Moore off the field.

If Moore is sidelined, Coleman becomes an upside WR3.

He will face a tougher assignment on some of his outside snaps (he plays 75% of his snaps out wide) when he lines up with Trent McDuffie.

McDuffie has allowed only 5 of 18 targets (27.8%) to be completed in coverage.

Jaylen Watson is still expected to miss Week 5, meaning Josh Wallace will have to step up again on the outside.

Khalil Shakir

Shakir had his best of the season on Sunday, catching 7 of 8 targets for 82 yards.

He had 8 catches for 94 yards coming into last week.

If Moore is out, Shakir gets a bump as a WR4/FLEX in a game we're firing on with all core pieces.

The Rams have been a good middle-of-the-field defense, allowing 6.2 yards per target to slot receivers (9th), but they have allowed a 10% touchdown rate (30th) to those receivers.

Bills vs. Rams Fantasy Tight End Preview

Dalton Kincaid

After coming out hot with games of 5-130-0 (6 targets) and 7-95-1 (8 targets), Kincaid has been quiet the past two weeks with games of 2-38-0 (3 targets) and 1-7-0 (2 targets).

Kincaid ran a route on a season-low 54.3% of dropbacks Sunday, down from 68.8%, 68.4%, and 67.7%.

Joe Brady spoke up after last week's game about doing a better job of getting Kincaid the ball.

Especially with D.J. Moore banged up.

Even with the drop-off the past two weeks, Kincaid still leads all tight ends with 3.07 yards per route.

After Brady's comments and the possibility that Moore could miss this potential high-scoring game environment, Kincaid is an upside TE1 to keep in lineups.

The Rams have been strong against tight ends, allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per target.

Against slot tight ends (where Kincaid plays 34.4% of his snaps), they have allowed a league-low 30.8% completion rate (4 of 13 targets).

If you want to apply a grain of salt, they haven't been challenged much by good quarterback play attached to those tight ends.

Their biggest test was Week 1 against George Kittle, who was limited returning from injury.

Tyler Higbee

Higbee caught 5 of 6 targets for 67 yards on Sunday.

With Terrance Ferguson on IR and Colby Parkinson inactive, the Rams had to condense their tight end room and scrap their high rates of 13 personnel.

Higbee ran a route on 75.9% of the dropbacks.

His counting stats were boosted by the overall pass volume (he has a 12% target share), but if Parkinson remains out again this week, Higbee is in play as a high-end TE2 and streaming option for gamers looking to get a piece of this game.

The Bills have allowed 6.6 yards per target (13th) and a 3.5% touchdown rate (10th) to tight ends so far.

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