The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Vikings vs. Saints Week 5 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | Spread | 2.0 | ||
| 22.25 | Implied Total | 20.25 | ||
| 21.5 | 18 | Points/Gm | 26.3 | 10 |
| 12.8 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 32.0 | 32 |
| 59.8 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 72.8 | 2 |
| 59.5 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.0 | 17 |
| 4.4 | 32 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 20 |
| 4.9 | 4 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 26 |
| 48.5% | 7 | Rush% | 34.0% | 29 |
| 51.5% | 26 | Pass% | 66.0% | 4 |
| 38.2% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 47.2% | 26 |
| 61.8% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 52.8% | 7 |
- The Vikings are first in defensive EPA (50.06).
- The Vikings are 29th in offensive EPA (-32.43).
- The Vikings are averaging 1.76 points per drive (24th).
- Minnesota has allowed a league-low 1.11 points per drive on defense.
- The Saints have allowed 2.91 points per drive (31st).
- The Saints are 31st in success rate against passing plays (46.6%).
- The Saints are last in success rate against rushing plays (52.1%).
- The Saints are one of two teams (the other being the Dolphins) that have not scored first in any game.
- The Vikings face third down on 64.6% of their sets of downs, the highest rate in the league. The league average is 46.3%.
- Minnesota has outscored opponents 34 to 3 in the fourth quarter this season, the largest margin in the league.
- Minnesota has allowed a touchdown on a league-low 20% (2 of 10) red zone trips.
Trust = spike production for that player
Vikings vs. Saints Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Tyler Shough
Shough's hot run as a QB1 ended on Monday night, but not by much.
Shough closed the week as the QB14 (15.9 points), completing 30 of 48 passes (62.5%) for 286 yards (6.0 Y/A) with 1 touchdown.
Shough's yards per pass attempt have dropped from the week prior every week this season.
The Saints have been in jailbreak game scripts regularly this season.
They play fast to begin with, the defense is bad, and they have struggled to run the ball, which has led to enormous volume passing.
This is reminiscent of last year's Arizona team.
Shough is averaging a league-high 49.3 dropbacks per game.
Even with high passing volume, this is a tough spot for ceiling expectations, leaving Shough as a volume-based QB2.
Shough is coming off a season-high 52.9% pressure rate on his dropbacks versus Atlanta.
With left tackle Kelvin Banks out, his replacement, Asim Richards, has had a rough go, allowing 14 pressures over the past two weeks.
Things do not get much better here.
Minnesota leads the NFL in pressure rate (45.8%), blitz rate (67.3%), and sack rate (10.9%).
When blitzed, Shough is averaging 5.4 yards per pass attempt (22nd) with a 13.5% sack rate (26th).
The Vikings allow the fewest passing points per attempt (0.30) and rank second in passing points allowed per game (9.8).
They have had a favorable runout schedule-wise (including a bad-weather game in their toughest matchup), but I am not sure Shough moves the needle as a tough draw.
The Vikings are a tough opponent to beat if you're trying to stack a high success rate, but you can hit some chunk plays against them since they are so aggressive.
The Vikings allow a league-low 51.2% completion rate, but they also allow 13.2 yards per completion (29th) when passes are completed.
Kyler Murray
Murray has finished as the QB27 (10.4 points) and QB23 (11.5 points) in his first full games with Minnesota.
Last week against Miami, Murray was 27 of 37 (73%) for 247 yards (6.7 Y/A) without a touchdown.
He rushed for 16 yards.
Murray only averaged 4.6 air yards per attempt on Sunday, 29th in the league for Week 4.
A league-low 37.5% of his passes went 5 or more yards downfield.
Minnesota was without Justin Jefferson.
The Vikings are on bye in Week 6, and Kevin O'Connell hinted that Jefferson could sit one more week to come back in full out of the bye (it helps being 4-0).
The offensive line had their own set of issues.
Donovan Jackson was lost to a biceps injury that will sideline him for the rest of the regular season.
Christian Darrisaw left the game with a concussion.
Murray ended up pressured on 41.9% of his dropbacks, the highest pressure rate Miami has had in a game this season.
Ryan Van Demark replaced Darrisaw and allowed 3 pressures in relief.
Joe Huber replaced Jackson and allowed 2 pressures.
Apply any grains of salt needed for PFF grades, but those two linemen were Minnesota's lowest-graded pass protectors on Sunday by a wide margin.
Darrisaw could clear protocol this week, but the Week 6 bye could be a factor here, too.
Murray couldn't take advantage of a Miami matchup, so we can't confidently stream him in 1QB leagues here.
That leaves him as a matchup-based QB2, and it is another good one.
The Saints allow 15.6 passing points per game (23rd) and rank 26th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.51), with a 68.3% completion rate (25th), 7.4 Y/A (18th), and a 5.7% touchdown rate (24th).
Vikings vs. Saints Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 5 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 5 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Bucs @ Cowboys | Thursday Night Football |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Giants @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Falcons | Sunday Night Football |
| Bills @ Rams | Monday Night Football |
