The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Steelers and Bills.
Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Pittsburgh | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 28.3 | 5 | Points/Gm | 24.9 | 11 |
| 22.9 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 23.9 | 20 |
| 62.4 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 56.7 | 29 |
| 57.8 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.8 | 32 |
| 6.1 | 4 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 21 |
| 5.5 | 21 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 17 |
| 47.38% | 7 | Rush% | 42.47% | 18 |
| 52.62% | 26 | Pass% | 57.53% | 15 |
| 48.43% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 37.53% | 4 |
| 51.57% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 62.47% | 29 |
- Buffalo leads the league in plays of 20-plus yards per game (5.1).
- Pittsburgh is 30th in plays of 20-plus yards per game (2.6), ahead of the Browns (2.5) and Saints (1.9).
- The Steelers are one of four teams to lead in every game this season. They are 6-5 while the other three teams have combined for a 25-8 record.
- Pittsburgh has a league-high 84 points off takeaways this season.
- 41% of Pittsburgh drives fail to gain a first down, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bills are averaging 2.02 points per drive on the road (17th) compared to 3.10 points per drive at home (2nd).
- The Steelers have allowed a touchdown on 19% of opponent drives at home (11th) compared to a 27.8% rate (21st) on the road.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen is coming off his worst fantasy game of the year in Houston (8.1 points).
He did not throw a touchdown pass for only the second time this season.
He took a career-high 8 sacks.
Pro Football Focus credited Allen himself for 43.8% of his pressures, his highest rate of the season.
Allen will look to bounce back as a high-ceiling QB1 against a Pittsburgh defense that has been extremely pressure-related for success.
When Pittsburgh has pressured the quarterback, they have allowed a 46.5% completion rate (10th), 5.8 yards per pass attempt (10th), and a league-low 0.8% touchdown rate.
Without pressure, the Steelers have allowed a 71.8% completion rate (17th), 7.6 Y/A (20th), and a 5.9% touchdown rate (23rd).
Dion Dawkins is in concussion protocol, an added variable to keeping pressure off Allen.
Allen has thrown 5 touchdowns to 5 interceptions on the road this season, averaging 15.6 points per game away from Buffalo to keep us honest.
The Bills have not played well in either of their past two road games, but there are paths to upside against an up-and-down Pittsburgh defense.
The Steelers have allowed 3 passing touchdowns in 3 of their past 6 games, including to Caleb Williams on Sunday.
The Steelers are still allowing a league-high 277.6 passing yards per game.
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers was held out last week due to his fractured left wrist.
Mike Tomlin said that he was “optimistic” that Rodgers would play this week, but we will follow his status throughout the week.
Even if Rodgers does play, he is a floor-based QB2.
Rodgers has not shown much of a ceiling this year.
He has only two QB1 weeks, and those are his only weeks higher than QB15 in weekly scoring.
He can protect himself the same way he has this season, which is with quick and short passing.
Rodgers has thrown 30.8% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, the second-highest rate in the league.
A league-low 45.3% of his passes have been five or more yards downfield. The league rate is 55.1%.
Only 23.9% of his passes have been 10 or more yards downfield, also the lowest rate. The league average is 32.7%.
Rodgers has not completed a pass 20 or more yards downfield since Week 8 and is 7 of 28 on those throws this season.
The Bills are allowing a league-low 182.8 passing yards per game.
If you're playing Rodgers and are looking for any angle here, the Bills have been vulnerable to multiple tight end sets.
They are allowing a league-high 9.5 yards per pass attempt against 12 and 13 personnel.
We are only talking about 23 pass attempts, however.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 13 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Packers @ Lions | Thanksgiving |
| Chiefs @ Cowboys | Thanksgiving |
| Bengals @ Ravens | Thanksgiving |
| Bears @ Eagles | Black Friday |
| 49ers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Steelers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Giants @ Patriots | Monday Night Football |