The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 17 matchup between the Chiefs and Broncos on Christmas Day.
Find a breakdown of every Week 17 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Denver | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -13.0 | Spread | 13.0 | ||
| 24.75 | Implied Total | 11.75 | ||
| 24.1 | 13 | Points/Gm | 22.5 | 20 |
| 19.7 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 19.6 | 4 |
| 64.2 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 10 |
| 63.3 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 57.3 | 4 |
| 5.5 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 16 |
| 4.6 | 1 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 16 |
| 40.81% | 24 | Rush% | 40.54% | 25 |
| 59.19% | 9 | Pass% | 59.46% | 8 |
| 37.89% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 44.65% | 18 |
| 62.11% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 55.35% | 15 |
- Denver has a league-best +45 sack differential. The next closest team (Atlanta) is at +28.
- Over their past nine games, the Chiefs have a -11 sack differential, 28th in the league.
- Denver averages 5.0 sacks plus takeaways per game, the most in the league.
- The Broncos have scored first in four games this season, ahead of only the Saints (twice).
- The Chiefs have converted 17.1% (14 of 82) of their third and long situations (needing 7 or more yards), 31st in the league.
- Kansas City has converted 40.9% (9 of 22) of their red zone trips into touchdowns over the past seven games, 30th in the league.
- Kansas City has scored 41 points below their implied team totals, 31st in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Bo Nix: Nix threw for 352 yards on Sunday, giving him 295 or more yards in four of his past five games.
Unfortunately, he threw only 1 touchdown pass and also threw an interception.
Rushing for 11 yards, he ended the week as the QB19 (15.2 points).
Nix has pretty much lived as a mid-range QB2 this season, which is where I would have him here.
Nix has three top-six scoring weeks, finishing in the QB15 to QB20 range in seven games.
As noted last week, Denver has gone pass-heavy since the injury to J.K. Dobbins.
Over the past five weeks, the Broncos have thrown the ball 8.8% over expectations, the highest rate in the league.
That includes Week 11 when these teams played.
In that game, Denver threw the ball 3% over expectations and 5% on first downs.
Nix ended that game completing 24 of 37 passes (64.9%) for 295 yards (8.0 Y/A) with no touchdowns or interceptions.
It is fair to question whether that will be necessary here, given the state of this Kansas City team, which just lost in Tennessee.
There is a trade-off, as this defense is also weaker than the one he faced in the first matchup.
The Chiefs are coming off allowing Cam Ward to complete 21 of 28 passes (75%) for 228 yards (8.1 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.
Chris Oladokun: After losing Patrick Mahomes for the season, the Chiefs lost Gardner Minshew after 9 dropbacks on Sunday.
While Minshew appears to have avoided an ACL injury, he has been placed on injured reserve.
The team signed Shane Buechele off the Buffalo practice squad on Monday, but Oladokun is set up to make his first NFL start on Sunday.
A former seventh-round pick by Pittsburgh out of South Dakota State in 2022, Oladokun completed 11 of 16 passes for 111 yards against Tennessee in his first career action on Sunday.
He did not throw a touchdown or interception, rushing twice for 7 yards.
Oladokun is in a tough spot for his first career start.
He is only for 2QB gamers looking to fill a void or outright punting in Thursday DFS.
Denver had issues slowing down a hot Jacksonville offense on Sunday, but they are still at the front of the league in several passing metrics.
They have only allowed a 58.8% completion rate (3rd), 6.5 Y/A (7th), and a 3.2% touchdown rate (3rd).
When these teams played in Week 11, Denver held Mahomes to 6.1 Y/A with 1 touchdown and an interception.
They also have a front-end pass rush, posting a 41.7% pressure rate (3rd).
When pressured on Sunday, Oladokun was 1 of 3 passing with 4 sacks.
Running Back
RJ Harvey: Harvey only had 11 touches on Sunday, but he flashed his explosive playmaking ability.
Harvey rushed 7 times for 50 yards and a touchdown, a stellar 38-yard score, which was the longest run against Jacksonville this season.
He also caught 4 of 5 targets for 71 yards out of the backfield, anchored by a 32-yard reception.
Harvey has now had 11 touchdowns over his rookie season, getting into the end zone 5 times over the past four games.
He has settled in as a starter.
Over the past four weeks, he has been the RB6 in expected points per game (16.4) and the RB5 in actual scoring (19.4 points per game).
While outkicking his expectations a bit due to a hot stretch getting into the end zone, the usage and production have been positive.
He has a 48.2% success rate as a runner over that span (RB4) with a 10.2% target share (RB16).
Harvey has positioned himself as an upside RB1, and Denver should be in a position to give him opportunities here.
He only had 50 total yards on 14 touches when these teams played in Week 11, but the Chiefs are in a different position in the rematch now that they have been eliminated from the postseason.
They are coming off allowing 208 yards and 2 touchdowns to the Tennessee backfield on Sunday.
Chiefs RBs: Isiah Pacheco led the backfield in snaps (31) and touches (14) on Sunday, producing 75 yards.
Kareem Hunt only played 11 snaps, turning 3 touches into 2 yards.
Brashard Smith did not have extended playing time with the team eliminated from the playoffs, playing 8 snaps and turning 1 touch into 4 yards.
Pacheco only rushed 8 times for 34 yards, but he caught 6 of 7 targets for 41 yards.
He had a team-high 31.8% target share.
That is hardly something we will lean on here.
Pacheco is an RB3/FLEX.
The Chiefs have their lowest team total of the season and of any team this week.
Denver is allowing 3.8 YPC to running backs (3rd) and 10.6 rushing points per game to backs (5th).
They are also only allowing 7.2 receiving points per game to backfields (6th).
Wide Receiver
More Week 17 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Commanders | Christmas Day |
| Lions @ Vikings | Christmas Day |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Christmas Day |
| Texans @ Chargers | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Packers | Saturday -- 8:00 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ 49ers | Sunday Night Football |
| Rams @ Falcons | Monday Night Football |