In this college football DFS preview, I'll break down the Saturday main slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around carry more expensive salaries, but they are worth prioritizing in your lineup due to their high ceiling. Value plays are lower-salaried options who come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are fantasy-relevant options you might normally consider but have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to meet their usual expectations.
All references to fantasy points per game are based on the DraftKings scoring system. All references to spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
Key Play-Calling Data (2020 season)
| Team | Plays Per Game | Overall Pass Rate | 2nd Half Pass Rate w/ Lead | 2nd Half Pass Rate Trailing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford | 70 | 56.4% | 39.4% | 71.3% |
| Kansas State | 60.1 | 44.3% | 42.3% | 44.3% |
| Tulane | 69.1 | 44.5% | 32.6% | 50.6% |
| Oklahoma | 71 | 52.1% | 46.7% | 72.7% |
| W. Michigan | 65.3 | 43.7% | 31.1% | 63.8% |
| Michigan | 64.2 | 59.3% | 45.9% | 70.7% |
| Penn State | 78.8 | 49.1% | 27.1% | 66.9% |
| Wisconsin | 70.7 | 45.1% | 22.4% | 63.0% |
| Fresno State | 77.3 | 61.0% | 48.3% | 73.0% |
| Oregon | 61.1 | 50.6% | 43.7% | 53.8% |
| Alabama | 69.4 | 49.4% | 38.5% | 63.6% |
| Miami FL | 73 | 52.4% | 40.7% | 60.0% |
| Miami OH | 61.7 | 49.2% | 51.3% | 47.7% |
| Cincinnati | 67.6 | 49.1% | 42.5% | 61.5% |
| Marshall | 66.9 | 44.6% | 31.3% | 52.3% |
| Navy | 60.7 | 26.1% | 5.5% | 33.3% |
| Indiana | 71.3 | 53.1% | 38.7% | 67.3% |
| Iowa | 68 | 48.6% | 35.9% | 67.2% |
| West Virginia | 75.9 | 55.4% | 36.8% | 66.3% |
| Maryland | 62 | 57.2% | 34.3% | 53.8% |
| Louisiana Tech | 70.3 | 56.3% | 42.2% | 63.5% |
| Miss. State | 69.2 | 76.9% | 58.9% | 81.4% |
| Northern Iowa | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Iowa State | 69 | 49.7% | 40.7% | 65.2% |
| Louisiana | 67.2 | 45.9% | 34.8% | 53.1% |
| Texas | 71.5 | 54.7% | 45.1% | 67.2% |
PLAYERS TO BUILD AROUND
QB Bryce Young, Alabama vs. Miami FL
DraftKings Salary: $8,900
FanDuel Salary: $9,700
This is a steep salary to pay for an unproven quarterback, but we have to mention Bryce Young as an option given Alabama’s track record.
Miami is probably just good enough to keep this game moderately close, but also weak enough on defense to allow Young to have a big day. In 2020, opposing quarterbacks posted 21.7 fantasy points per game against the Hurricanes, ranked 63rd in the nation.
Additionally, Miami lost star pass-rushers Quincy Roche and Jalean Phillips to the NFL, who accounted for 37% of the team’s QB pressures, according to Sports Info Solutions. The defense will likely struggle to get pressure on the young quarterback.
QB Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati vs. Miami OH
DraftKings Salary: $9,200
Not on FanDuel slate
Due to his high salary and an expected blowout, Desmond Ridder is a tournament-only option. However, his elite ceiling puts him on our tournament radar every week.
In 2020, Ridder was one of only two quarterbacks (Liberty’s Malik Willis) to reach 40 fantasy points in four games.
Ridder’s rushing production (12 TD) should be sustainable given his usage. He accounted for 25% of the team’s carries inside the opponents’ 10-yard line and the Bearcats run the ball at 77% clip in those situations.
QB Brock Purdy, Iowa State vs. Northern Iowa
DraftKings Salary: $7,900
Not on FanDuel slate
Although Brock Purdy doesn’t have a huge ceiling 一 he topped 30 fantasy points only once last year 一 he’s among the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks and has a reasonable salary this week.
In Iowa State’s most lopsided game in 2020, a 45-0 win over Kansas State, Purdy still attempted 20 passes with seven carries and finished with 27.3 fantasy points. In another easy win over Kansas, he threw the ball 34 times with 26.6 fantasy points.
With a tough rivalry game against Iowa on deck in Week 2, Purdy will probably see a good workload in this matchup as a tune-up.
RB Breece Hall, Iowa State vs. Northern Iowa
DraftKings Salary: $9,000
Not on FanDuel slate
You can always justify rostering Breece Hall, who topped 30 fantasy points in eight of 12 games last season.
The only risk is a potential lack of touches in a blowout, but his usage remained steady last season. Hall only saw fewer than 45 snaps in one game last year (Kansas State) and had at least 15 touches in every contest.
RB Leddie Brown, West Virginia vs. Maryland
DraftKings Salary: $8,000
FanDuel Salary: $9,600
The West Virginia offense revolves around Leddie Brown, who saw a 31.4% opportunity share last season and ran routes on 43.9% of their pass plays, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Maryland should be improved, but the Terps ranked 118th in the nation in fantasy points allowed to running backs in 2020.
RB Bijan Robinson, Texas vs. Louisiana
DraftKings: $7,400
FanDuel Salary: $10,000
This is a great spot for Bijan Robinson to build off his back-to-back 45-point games to close out the 2020 season. Louisiana is good enough to keep this game close, and maybe even win, but its run defense is a weak spot.
Louisiana surrendered 30.2 fantasy points per game to running backs (72nd in the nation), with four individual running backs topping 25 points.
Assuming new head coach Steve Sarkisian uses Robinson in a role similar to Najee Harris at Alabama, he’ll make an impact in all phases of the game. In 2020, Harris ran routes on 44% of Alabama’s pass plays, according to Sports Info Solutions.
RB Jerome Ford, Cincinnati vs. Miami OH
DraftKings Salary: $7,000
Not on FanDuel slate
In 2020, Cincinnati’s top running back (typically Gerrid Doaks) averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game, with four games over 25 points and none below 15. This makes Jerome Ford a smart bet in both cash games and tournaments.
Since Miami has one of the better defenses in the MAC and plays at a slow pace on offense, it might be safer to choose either Ford or Ridder, rather than stack them.
RB Hassan Haskins, Michigan vs. Western Michigan
DraftKings Salary: $6,200
FanDuel Salary: $8,600
In the final two games of 2020, Hassan Haskins took over as Michigan’s starting running back, commanding a 35% opportunity share and posting 20.1 and 25.1 fantasy points.
Michigan is notoriously secretive about its depth chart, so there’s some risk in playing Haskins. Although offensive coordinator Josh Gattis has stated a desire to run the ball more, so there could be enough touches for multiple players to shine.
WR David Bell, Purdue vs. Oregon State
Not on DraftKings slate
FanDuel Salary: $9,800
With Rondale Moore gone, David Bell should dominate the workload at Purdue, as he did during Moore’s absence in 2020. Prior to Moore’s return, Bell saw a 37.4% target share.
WR1s averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game against Oregon State, ranked 92nd in the nation.
WR Marvin Mims, Oklahoma vs. Tulane
DraftKings Salary: $7,700
FanDuel Salary: $9,200
The Oklahoma receiving corps was tough to figure out last year 一 four different receivers led them in fantasy points 一 but there may be some clarity in the short term. Marvin Mims led the receivers in scoring four times, followed by three apiece from Charleston Rambo (transferred) and Theo Wease (injured) and one from Austin Stogner (returns).
Other challengers could emerge but Mims stands out as the clear-cut WR1 for now, and we’ve seen Lincoln Riley’s offense operate with a clear WR1 in the past with Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb.
WR CJ Verdell, Oregon vs. Fresno State
DraftKings Salary: $6,000
Not on FanDuel slate
On Oregon’s depth chart, CJ Verdell and Travis Dye ($5,500) are listed as co-starters. However, they occupy different roles in the offense and this game script should tilt toward Verdell.
In games when both were active in 2020, Verdell out-touched Dye 24-16 in the second half when Oregon held a lead. Dye is the more explosive runner, but it appears Verdell is the preferred option when Oregon is playing for ball control.
WR Jahan Dotson, Penn State vs. Wisconsin
DraftKings Salary: $7,500
FanDuel Salary: $8,700
In nine games in 2020, Jahan Dotson topped 30 fantasy points four times and scored in the single digits three times. He’s boom-or-bust, but always worth consideration in tournaments.
Wisconsin has a strong reputation on defense, but the Badgers were beatable in the passing game last season. In 2020, the top-scoring receiver against Wisconsin averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game (49th in the nation) with two opponents scoring over 35 points.
WR Jalen Cropper, Fresno State vs. Oregon
DraftKings Salary: $6,100
Not on FanDuel slate
In Week 0, Jalen Cropper had a solid showing (19 points) and likely could have done more damage if it were needed against UConn (Fresno State won 45-0). As heavy underdogs against Oregon, the game script should unfold favorably for Cropper to repeat or exceed last week’s numbers.
Cropper primarily lines up in the slot where he’ll face an inexperienced Oregon secondary due to the recent suspension of last year’s slot corner Jamal Hill. In 2020, Hill wasn’t exactly a lockdown corner 一he allowed 60.9% completion rate in the slot, per Sports Info Solutions 一 so this is potentially an area Fresno State can exploit.
VALUE PLAYS
QB D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson vs. Georgia
Not on DraftKings slate
FanDuel Salary: $8,100
Georgia’s defense surrendered just 15.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the 15th lowest rate in the nation. However, the Bulldogs were picked apart by the best quarterbacks, allowing 32.7 points to Alabama’s Mac Jones and 36.5 to Florida’s Kyle Trask.
Additionally, the Bulldogs were decimated by defenders bolting for the pros, losing cornerbacks Eric Stokes and Tyson Campbell, top pass-rusher Azeez Ojulari, and many others.
This is a surprisingly inexpensive salary for D.J. Uiagalelei, who posted 33.2 and 34.8 fantasy points in his two starts in 2020.
QB Michael Pratt, Tulane vs. Oklahoma
DraftKings Salary: $6,300
FanDuel Salary: $6,700
Against a solid Oklahoma defense, Michael Pratt is a risky player to roster but his upside is worth a dart throw in tournaments.
Oklahoma’s defense improved last season and should be strong again, but opposing quarterbacks still averaged 22.8 fantasy points per game, partially because it’s necessary to throw the ball to keep pace with the Sooners.
As a true freshman, Pratt posted 21.5 fantasy points per game, topping 25 points in three contests. He also brings value in the run game with eight rushing scores, and led the team in carries inside the five-yard line.
QB Skylar Thompson, Kansas State vs. Stanford
DraftKings Salary: $6,200
FanDuel Salary: $8,800
Kansas State was an offense to avoid in DFS last year, but only after Skylar Thompson’s early-season injury. Prior to going down, he demonstrated an elite ceiling with 39.4 points against Oklahoma.
Opposing quarterbacks topped their season average against Stanford’s defense in every game by an average of 4.5 points per game.
The Wildcats’ implied total of 28 points isn’t ideal, but Thompson’s salary is low enough to gamble on the upside.
RB Chez Mellusi, Wisconsin vs. Penn State
DraftKings Salary: $5,000
FanDuel Salary: $5,400
After two years buried on the depth chart at Clemson, Chez Mellusi transferred to Wisconsin and is somewhat surprisingly listed as the starter ahead of Jalen Berger ($6,100).
Mellusi and Berger split touches with the first team during the offseason and, according to The Athletic’s Jesse Temple, we should expect them to continue sharing the load.
Despite the possibility of neither Berger nor Mellusi emerging as a reliable fantasy weapon, a starting running back on a $5,000 salary is tough to pass up.
RB Charles McClelland, Cincinnati vs. Miami OH
DraftKings Salary: $4,800
Not on FanDuel slate
There’s a shortage of quality running backs on cheap salaries, so I’ll mention Charles McClelland, although I prefer to pay up for more reliable options at the position.
McClelland has overcome multiple season-ending knee injuries to earn the backup job at Cincinnati and is highly regarded by the coaching staff. He’ll get some touches in this likely blowout and it could be a good opportunity for the staff to reward his hard work with a slightly elevated workload.
WR Skyy Moore, Western Michigan vs. Michigan
DraftKings Salary: $5,900
FanDuel Salary: $6,500
Despite sharing the field with second-round draft pick D’Wayne Eskridge last year, Skyy Moore still saw a 24.3% target share with an average depth of target at 10.1 yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The Wolverines are 17-point favorites, but Western Michigan still carries an implied total of 25 points. With the Broncos playing from behind, Moore should see a heavy dose of targets.
WR Parker Washington, Penn State vs. Wisconsin
DraftKings Salary: $5,000
FanDuel Salary: $6,900
Jahan Dotson is the focal point of the Penn State offense but Parker Washington still saw a 20% target share with an average depth of target at 10.6 yards downfield in 2020.
Penn State’s 67% pass rate when trailing in the second half potentially bodes well for both Dotson and Washington as underdogs at Wisconsin. Pairing one of the Nittany Lions receivers with a Wisconsin running back could be a smart game-script stack.
WR Deuce Watts, Tulane vs. Oklahoma
DraftKings Salary: $4,800
FanDuel Salary: $6,600
In nine full games last year, Deuce Watts commanded a 25% target share in the Tulane offense. Although the Green Wave isn’t as pass-heavy as we’d like, they’ll likely have no choice but to throw early and often to keep pace with Oklahoma.
Watts scored 14+ fantasy points in four of his nine games with a peak of 30.6 points versus Temple, so we should feel reasonably confident in Watts’ having some value on this low salary.
WR Phillip Brooks, Kansas State vs. Stanford
DraftKings Salary: $3,500
FanDuel Salary: $5,300
Kansas State is not a pass-heavy offense, so slot receiver Phillip Brooks has a near-zero floor, but he’s in an ideal matchup against a weak Stanford defense.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Stanford allowed 74.6% completion rate and 10.4 yards per target to slot receivers in 2020.
WR Josh Kelly, Fresno State vs. Oregon
DraftKings Salary: $3,300
Not on FanDuel slate
Despite running the most routes among Fresno State’s receivers against UConn (first half and overall), Josh Kelly’s salary dropped this week and five teammates carry bigger cap hits.
Other than Jalen Cropper, we can’t be confident how targets will be divvied up in a more competitive game, but Kelly is certain to be involved. To get the potential second or third pass-caching option on a pass-heavy team with a near-floor salary is among the best deals we’ll see all year.
Given the uncertainty in Fresno’s offense he’s a better option in tournaments, but the salary is so low and some degree of usage is guaranteed, so Kelly looks attractive in cash games as well.
WR Troy Franklin, Oregon vs. Fresno State
DraftKings Salary: $3,000
Not on FanDuel slate
As a true freshman, Troy Franklin has earned a starting role as the X receiver in Oregon’s offense. The Ducks’ receiving corps has been lacking in recent years, so the potential for the 6’2” freshman to emerge as the go-to weapon exists.
Franklin has a zero floor given Oregon’s heavy use of the run and his inexperience, but with his salary also at the floor, he’s worth the risk in tournaments.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
QB Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma vs. Tulane
DraftKings Salary: $9,700
FanDuel Salary: $12,000
In cash games, go ahead and roster Spencer Ratter, who averaged 25.1 fantasy points per game and topped 30 points five times. In tournaments, this looks like a risky spot.
In 2020, Rattler eclipsed 32 points only once (versus Oklahoma State). And with the highest salary on both sites by a wide margin, he’s less attractive without having demonstrated a higher ceiling.
Oklahoma has Tulane this week, followed by Western Carolina in Week 2 一 essentially two preseason games 一 so there’s even less incentive for Oklahoma to keep Rattler in the game once it's wrapped up, as he’ll still get tune-up reps next week.
On the slim chance this game is closer than expected, throw Rattler into a lineup or two, but don’t make him the focal point of your slate.
QB Anthony Brown, Oregon vs. Fresno State
DraftKings Salary: $8,300
Not on FanDuel Slate
The formerly fast-paced Oregon offense has slowed down dramatically in recent years. The Ducks averaged just 61.1 plays per game last year. And when playing with a lead, Oregon threw the ball only 44% of the time in the second half.
As 20.5-point favorites, the game script likely doesn’t provide the ideal environment for Anthony Brown to put up big numbers. Oregon does carry an implied total of 42 points, so Brown could cash in with some early scoring, but he carries the fifth-highest salary among starting quarterbacks, so there are better values elsewhere.