Lions vs. Commanders Fantasy Football Worksheet, Divisional Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Divisional Round matchup between the Lions and Commanders.

Find a breakdown of every Divisional Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

WashingtonRank@DetroitRank
9.0 Spread-9.0
23.25 Implied Total32.25
28.25Points/Gm33.21
22.818Points All./Gm20.17
65.04Plays/Gm65.81
59.64Opp. Plays/Gm59.85
5.710Off. Yards/Play6.23
5.418Def. Yards/Play5.727
47.78%6Rush%47.76%7
52.22%27Pass%52.24%26
48.00%30Opp. Rush %36.32%2
52.00%3Opp. Pass %63.68%31

Against the Spread:

  • Lions: 12-4-1
  • Commanders: 11-6-1
  • Lions Home: 5-3-1
  • Commanders Away: 4-4-1
  • Lions as Favorite: 11-4-1
  • Commanders as Underdog: 4-2-1

Game Overview

This is the only game this weekend that is not a rematch from the regular season.

We have two of the best offenses in the league squaring off.

Detroit leads the NFL in points per drive (3.04) while Washington is fourth (2.74).

The Commanders also lead the NFL in points per drive on the road (2.98).

Detroit games feature 54.1 combined points per game, which is second in the league.

Washington games have averaged 52.1 combined points per game, which is fifth.

Washington won their first playoff game since 2005 last week on the road in Tampa Bay.

They did not punt once in the game, something we shouldn’t expect to see much of on Saturday night.

Detroit has punted at the lowest rate in the league (25.1%) while Washington is second (27.1%).

This is a matchup for you if you enjoy aggressive offensive approaches.

Detroit is third in the NFL in fourth down conversions (20). Washington is second (19).

The Lions and Dan Campbell get a lot of buzz for their willingness to pursue touchdowns over field goals, but Washington leads the NFL in EPA on fourth down this season (51.99). Detroit is fifth (30.0).

What objectively separates these teams is on the defensive side of the ball.

Detroit is 11th in points allowed per drive (1.91) and 12th in touchdowns allowed per drive (21.2%).

Washington is 24th in points allowed per drive (2.22) and 27th in touchdown rate per drive (26.1%).

Detroit has a takeaway on 14.1% of opponent possessions (7th) while Washington is 18th (9.3%).

The Lions' defensive success rate is 10th (58.6%) while Washington's is 14th (57.9%).

Washington has scored 27 points against the Steelers and 36 against the Eagles as part of their resume on generating points themselves on quality defenses, but they will need to find a way to slow down this Detroit offense.

Detroit has the highest implied team total on Saturday night for any team in a game this season.

The Lions have scored at least 31 points in their past five games leading into the playoffs.

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels: Building on a stellar regular season as a rookie, Daniels led the Washington offense to a victory in his first postseason appearance.

He threw for 7.7 yards per pass attempt, his highest in a game since Week 9.

He threw 2 touchdown passes, his sixth straight full game throwing multiple scores.

He added 36 yards rushing.

It was not just the counting stats for Daniels on Sunday night. It was also when he delivered.

Daniels had 8 passing first downs or touchdowns on third and fourth downs on Sunday, the most of any quarterback on the weekend.

Both of his passing touchdowns came on third or fourth down.

In the fourth quarter, Daniels was 6-of-9 passing with a touchdown.

That has been the story all season.

When it has mattered the most, Daniels has delivered in those spots.

Daniels is sixth in the NFL in rating (110.7) and fifth in EPA per dropback (0.26) on third or fourth down (110.7) over the entire season.

In the fourth quarter, he was third in rating (114.0) and fifth in EPA per dropback (0.33).

The Detroit defense had injury issues to close the season, but as they showed in Week 18, they can still put offenses in a tough spot through an aggressive playstyle.

Detroit plays the most man coverage on passing snaps (45.4%) and has blitzed 33.7% of the time (fourth).

Daniels completed 74.6% of his passes (3rd) and averaged 8.0 Y/A against zone coverage this season (12th).

Against man coverage, he had a dip in efficiency, completing 59.2% of his throws (12th) for 6.5 Y/A (23rd).

He also was sacked on 12.3% of his dropbacks against man coverage (34th) compared to a 6.7% rate (21st) against zone.

But against man coverage, Daniels threw a lot more touchdowns.

He had a 9.2% touchdown rate against man coverage as opposed to a 1.7% rate (27th) against zone looks.

Daniels has been solid against the blitz this season, completing 64% of his passes (13th) for 8.4 Y/A (10th) and an 8% touchdown rate (10th).

The one bugaboo was taking a sack on 10.2% of those dropbacks, 30th in the league.

The other element in playing an aggressive defense is the opportunity for the quarterback to run.

Daniels leads the NFL with a 10.7% scramble rate when blitzed and an 11.5% scramble rate against man coverage.

He leads the league in rushing yards when blitzed (213) and is second in yards against man coverage (241) behind Lamar Jackson (308).

Detroit has had issues allowing rushing production to passers for multiple seasons.

Detroit is 29th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (26.7 per game).

In the previous two seasons under Aaron Glenn, they were 30th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks in 2023 (24.7 per game) and dead last in 2022 (41.2 per game).

They have also allowed 6 rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, tied for the third-most in the league.

Jared Goff: Goff hits the postseason coming off the best regular season of his career.

He set career marks in completing 72.4% of his passes, 37 passing touchdowns, and 8.6 yards per pass attempt.

We mentioned how clutch Daniels was on third and fourth downs this season, but Goff led the NFL in EPA dropback on those downs (0.48).

Goff even had his best season under pressure, which was the constant hole in his game.

Goff had career marks across the board when pressured this year, completing 53.4% of his passes (9th) for 6.8 Y/A (9th).

And if you aren’t going to disrupt Goff and this passing game, good luck.

Goff completed a league-high 79.5% of his passes from a clean pocket for 9.3 Y/A (4th) and a 7.7% touchdown rate (3rd).

Washington can get home, ranking eighth in pressure rate without blitzing (34.1%), but can they hold up on the back end?

When Washington has not gotten pressure, they have allowed 7.8 yards per attempt (27th) and a 5.4% touchdown rate (27th).

Washington is 23rd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.451) while Goff is second in the league (0.574).

The Commanders just faced the first good quarterback they have drawn over the back-third of the year, Baker Mayfield, and allowed an 83% completion rate and 10.3 yards per pass attempt.

They had faced Cooper Rush, Will Levis, Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, Michael Penix, and Trey Lance before that.

Detroit makes it hard to sit back and play two-high coverages against them because they will kill you in the run game if you want to play coverage.

Goff is 28th in the league in the percentage of dropbacks with the middle of the field open (39.4%), forcing teams to devote resources to the middle since you have to respect the running game.

Goff has faced the league’s highest rate of Cover 3 (41.6%).

When Detroit faced Dan Quinn with Dallas last season, they played Cover 1 on 28.6% of the snaps and Cover 3 on 22.9%, the two most used defensive looks.

Washington has climbed to fifth in the NFL in the rate of man coverage (34.7%) on passing snaps, which will play into a strength for Goff if they choose to stick with it.

Against man coverage, Goff leads the league with a 141.1 rating, completing 72.2% of his passes for 9.4 Y/A, with 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Running Back

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More Divisional Round Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:

MatchupTime
Texans @ Chiefs -- FREESaturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET
Commanders @ LionsSaturday -- 8 p.m. ET
Rams @ EaglesSunday -- 3 p.m. ET
Ravens @ BillsSunday -- 6:30 p.m. ET
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