In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS GAME STACK TO TARGET: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Obviously, Patrick Mahomes has the ability to lead the Kansas City Chiefs to a big offensive performance in any given week. This year it looks like that elite production may be more of a necessity than a luxury if the Chiefs defense maintains its early-season performance.
Excluding red zone plays, Kansas City is allowing 10.2 yards per pass play and a 62% success rate, among the worst in the league.
Kansas City’s issues bode well for Los Angeles Chargers’ receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Predictably, Williams and Allen have dominated the workload in the Chargers passing offense, especially on the deep ball, where they’ve accounted for 67% of the team’s target.
Since Mahomes’s top playmakers, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, each carry the highest salaries at their position, stacking Mahomes with the Chargers' top receivers may be a more efficient way to stack this game, in hopes it turns into a wild shootout.
DFS VALUE: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS RECEIVER SCOTTY MILLER
With Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver Antonio Brown going on the COVID-19 list, his status for Sunday’s showdown against the Los Angeles Rams is in doubt. If he’s not cleared prior to Sunday, Scotty Miller would likely assume a large portion of his role in the offense.
Miller carries an enticing salary ($3,100) salary and has the big-play potential to dramatically out-perform that cost.
Using our explosive play chart, we can see Miller was among the Bucs’ most dangerous weapons in 2020, with 16% of his receptions producing at least 20 yards.
Though the Rams are known for their defense, this matchup is tied for the highest total on the slate (55.5 points). And with Tampa favored by just 1.5 points, it stands out as a strong candidate to turn into a shootout, increasing the odds Miller is the intended target of some downfield throws from Tom Brady.
DFS VALUE: NEW YORK GIANTS RUNNING BACK SAQUON BARKLEY
Due to a rough start to the year (6.3 fantasy points per game) Saquon Barkley’s salary has been discounted to $6,500 this week against the Atlanta Falcons.
There’s certainly some risk in trusting the New York Giants’ offensive line to pave the way for him, but the Falcons' struggling defense is likely one of the easiest matchups they’ll face this season.
Through two weeks, Atlanta has allowed 72% success rate when opponents run the ball in 11 personnel, the worst rate in the NFL.
The Giants fall in the middle of the pack in terms of their 11 personnel usage 一 55% of their rush attempts 一 but that should still give Barkley enough opportunities to be productive, especially with New York favored by three points.
At the very least, Barkley looks like a safe selection in cash games, and the Falcons defense gives him an elevated ceiling worthy of a tournament gamble.