Bills vs. Vikings Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Bills vs. Vikings Week 9 matchup on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Bills vs. Vikings Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Josh Allen

This is a premier matchup for gamers.

Allen is the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback facing the defense that allows the fewest fantasy points at the position.

Allen has finished outside the top-10 scorers in one game this season.

He has scored fewer than 20 standard fantasy points only three times.

The Vikings have not allowed a top-10 scorer this season and have allowed 28.9 total passing points over their past six games.

Of course, with Allen, the plan isn't built entirely on passing.

He averages 11.6 rushing points per game.

The Vikings make it hard to scramble with so many bodies coming via pressure, but Allen can get there with short-yardage touchdowns.

He will need to add rushing output here because the passing matchup is tough.

Not to the point that you should stream a replacement for Allen if you have him, but expectations are being lowered from the lofty context he holds.

Minnesota has allowed 4 passing touchdowns this season, and 2 came in Week 1.

Allen has been at his best with D.J. Moore on the field, averaging 9.1 yards per pass attempt, 13.7 yards per completion, and completing 66.3% of his passes with the lead receiver available.

The Bills are one of the teams that do not have to fundamentally change their brand of football against the Vikings.

We always talk about how the Vikings force teams to play heavier personnel, scrap 11 personnel, and run the ball more. That's what the Bills do.

Buffalo ranks 28th in 11 personnel (46%), second in 13 personnel (27.1%), and middle of the pack in 12 personnel at 21.6% (17th).

Teams have really started to lean into a power run game to combat Minnesota and try to wear them down.

Opponents are throwing the ball 6.1% below expectations against them, the lowest rate in the league.

Vikings QB

After Minnesota's first loss of the season, there is a lot of buzz around Kyler Murray and whether he will start on Monday.

He has a hamstring injury.

The team has said it is not considered “really bad,” but it could keep him from playing.

Justin Jefferson also showed a lot of frustration in-game, and he said a lot by not even talking about the game afterward.

Kevin O'Connell did the token coach-speak angle: giving praise, then slipping in a comment about not really being happy with the performance.

O'Connell also said they're committed to Murray as the starter if he is healthy, so we will follow that throughout the week.

It is not hard to see why this is already an issue, because Murray was always an odd stylistic fit for O'Connell's offense.

He just happened to be cheap and available, so the Vikings took that swing.

All of that said, Murray was still fine fantasy-wise on Sunday, finishing the week as the QB8 (19.9 points).

If Murray cannot play, Carson Wentz would start Monday night.

Either Minnesota quarterback will be a matchup QB2.

Murray, of course, has more upside via his legs, but we have to dock him some in that regard if the hamstring injury limits his mobility.

Murray is rushing for 31.6 yards per game in his full games.

Top-down, this is not a bad matchup.

The Bills are allowing 18.5 passing points per game (31st).

A lot of that stems from two areas.

They have allowed a 5.6% touchdown rate (22nd), and they face 38.3 pass attempts per game (31st).

They allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt, which is mid-range (15th).

Buffalo has actually played good pass defense early in games.

In the first half this year, they are allowing 6.2 Y/A (9th), 9.6 yards per completion (5th), and 92.6 yards per game (11th).

But then in the second half, they allow 7.6 Y/A (21st), 12.4 yards per completion (25th), and a league-high 162.1 passing yards per game.

10 of the 15 passing touchdowns they have allowed have come in the second half.

If the Bills are beating teams and allowing points to us gamers, that is a win-win, but it has cost them some games they led at the half against New England and the Rams.

The Vikings haven't really shown any jailbreak gear, either.

The best example would be Week 1 with Wentz.

Bills vs. Vikings Fantasy Running Back Preview

James Cook

Cook is coming off 23 touches for 101 total yards and a touchdown.

He has found the end zone in each of the past six games.

With Ty Johnson back, Cook's route rate dropped to 32.4%.

Buffalo runs the ball on 57% of Cook's snaps, which ranks fourth in the league among running backs.

We know what we have with Cook as a rushing-oriented RB1.

Minnesota doesn't allow backs to play in the passing game anyway, something we have covered in length with Jahmyr Gibbs last week.

As noted with Josh Allen, teams have shifted to a run-first approach against Minnesota.

The past four teams against them have run at a higher-than-expected rate.

But in the past two weeks, we have seen teams with viable run games say they are going to stick with it.

The Colts ran 29 times with their backs in Week 7.

Detroit had 34 backfield runs on Sunday.

If you go back to Week 2 when they played the Bears, Chicago had 26 backfield runs.

The weather was bad, but that could have been an early signal we threw away.

In the first half, Minnesota's run defense was game, allowing 66 yards on 16 attempts (4.1 YPC) with a 75% success rate.

But in the second half, they allowed 152 yards on 18 runs (8.4 YPC) with a 27.8% success rate.

It was not all Jahmyr Gibbs, either.

Sione Vaki ran for 65 yards on 11 attempts.

For the season, the Vikings are allowing 3.8 YPC to backs in the first half (12th) with a 72.7% success rate (3rd).

In the second half, they have allowed 5.3 YPC (29th) with a 60.4% success rate (24th).

Their offense doesn't put teams away and prevents this elite pass defense from choking out opponents trying to play catch-up through the air.

Buffalo should be more than willing to play that type of game.

Vikings RBs

This was another split between Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones last week.

Jones played 38% of the snaps, handling 7 touches for 40 yards.

Mason played 28% of the snaps, turning 8 touches into 20 yards.

With Jones coming in banged up, DeeJay Dallas worked in as what I call the “Ogunbowale” role, playing in extreme passing situations, but not touching the ball.

Dallas played 17 snaps.

He only had 1 touch, blocking 8 times and running 7 routes.

The Vikings threw the ball on 88.2% of his snaps.

This is a pretty uninspiring split backfield where both Mason and Jones are touchdown-dependent RB3 options.

Jones gets more insulation through pass-catching, which can help him here.

The Bills are 30th in receiving points allowed to backs (13.0 per game).

Running backs account for 24.9% of the receptions they allow, the fifth-highest rate.

They allow only 3.7 YPC on the ground (9th), but they have allowed 7 rushing touchdowns to backs (22nd).

Bills vs. Vikings Fantasy Wide Receiver Preview

Justin Jefferson

Jefferson caught 5 of 9 targets for 33 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

His touchdown was an acrobatic jump ball that was all hard work.

That was the story of the game for Jefferson.

33.3% of his targets were inaccurate, his highest rate in a game this season.

All of the peripherals are here from a usage standpoint.

In his full games played, he has 30.9% of the team's targets and 37.8% of the air yards.

But he has only one WR1 scoring week due to quarterback play and an offense that ranks 27th in dropbacks per game (33.0).

Jefferson has four WR1 scoring weeks going back to last season.

What is compelling about that for the potential here is that three of those have come while playing with Carson Wentz.

When Wentz has played, Jefferson has 31.5% of the targets, 45.2% of the air yards, and is averaging 2.52 yards per route run.

He averages 6.1 catches for 87.6 yards per game over those seven games.

If we do get Wentz under center, that gives Jefferson more of a jolt as a WR1.

If Murray plays again, Jefferson is more of a volatile WR1/WR2.

There is matchup appeal here.

Buffalo allows a league-high 22.2 points per game to opposing WR1 targets, and that average includes a zero from Zay Flowers last week.

They have allowed a league-high 8 touchdowns to WR1 targets.

The only lead wide receivers not to finish as a WR1 against Buffalo have been Ladd McConkey and Flowers.

D.J. Moore

Back in the lineup, Moore caught 4 of 7 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown Sunday against Baltimore.

He had no limitations, running a route on 89.2% of the dropbacks.

Moore has played three full games this season, receiving 28.7% of the targets, 42.5% of the air yards, and posting 3.04 yards per route run in those games.

He is being targeted on a career-high 26% of his routes.

He is also averaging a career-high 15.1 air yards per target while playing with Allen.

Even with that higher downfield target rate, only 7.4% of his targets have been inaccurate, a career low if it sticks.

Moore has WR1 peripherals, but in this matchup, he is more of a WR2.

Minnesota has been forcing teams to dial down pass volume.

They have allowed 7.4 yards per target to receivers (10th) and a 3.5% touchdown rate (8th).

Jordan Addison

Addison caught 3 of 8 targets for 66 yards in Detroit, highlighted by a 51-yard rainbow downfield, Murray's best throw of the game (season).

Addison has had one top-30 scoring week this season, and that came with Jefferson leaving after 2 routes and scoring his only touchdown of the season.

Averaging 15.8 air yards per target, 24.2% of Addison's targets have been inaccurate.

Addison is a volatile WR4/FLEX, needing to cash in a splash play.

Buffalo has allowed a 33.3% completion rate (7 of 21) on throws to wide receivers 20 or more yards downfield (11th), but they have allowed 4 touchdowns on those 7 completions.

Khalil Shakir

This is an interesting matchup for Shakir.

On one hand, he leads Buffalo with a target share of 30.6% on routes against the blitz.

On the other hand, the Vikings reduce the rate of 11 personnel teams play.

Buffalo doesn't run a lot of 11 personnel to begin with, which is why Shakir has run a route on only 66.2% of the dropbacks.

That rate drops to 39.8% with multiple tight ends on the field.

When Shakir does get to play in heavy sets, he has averaged 4.31 yards per route run.

Shakir has only one end-zone target, so banking on a touchdown is a tough ask, leaving him as a floor-based WR4/FLEX.

Keon Coleman

Coleman should be back in the rotation with Josh Palmer banged up on Sunday.

But with Moore on the field this season, Coleman has seen a target on only 12.7% of his routes with 0.81 yards per route run.

He is a touchdown-or-bust option for single-game DFS.

Bills vs. Vikings Fantasy Tight End Preview

Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid caught 4 of 6 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

He is someone who has been better when D.J. Moore has played,

With Moore on the field, Kincaid is averaging 3.32 yards per route run.

With Moore off, he is averaging 2.02.

This is a tough matchup for Kincaid's role, however.

The Vikings make life hard for these FLEX tight ends because they force tight ends to stay active as protectors.

Kincaid plays 35.2% of his snaps in the slot and 16.2% out wide.

The Vikings have faced Colston Loveland (1 catch for 3 yards) and Juwan Johnson (4 catches for 16 yards).

Loveland ran a route on 70.7% of the dropbacks against Minnesota, his lowest rate of the season.

Johnson was at 65.4%, below his season rate.

The Bills run the ball on only 43.1% of Kincaid's snaps compared to 67.6% for Jackson Hawes and 53.2% for Dawson Knox.

Against tight ends in the slot or out wide, the Vikings have allowed 8 of 15 targets (53.3%) to be completed (2nd) for 4.8 yards per target (3rd).

Overall, the Vikings have allowed a league-low 1.13 fantasy points per target to all tight ends.

They are one of two teams that have not allowed a tight end touchdown yet this season.

Kincaid is more of a TE2 for me on Monday night.

T.J. Hockenson

Hockenson caught 4 of 5 targets for 58 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

That was his second straight game with a score.

Hockenson is the one guy surviving a bit with Murray, since he plays a low-bar fantasy position.

He isn't stacking high yards (his one game hitting 60 yards was without Jefferson), but he is averaging 4.4 catches per game.

Hockenson has a 20.4% target share (TE6) and is a floor-based option on the TE1/TE2 line.

The Bills have allowed 6.1 receptions per game to tight ends (24th), but just 1 touchdown to the position.

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