Buccaneers vs. Bears Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Buccaneers vs. Bears Week 9 matchup on Sunday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Buccaneers vs. Bears Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Caleb Williams

Williams and the Chicago offense played an excellent game in a tough spot on the road in Seattle on Monday.

Williams connected on 24 of 34 passes (70.6%) for 247 yards (7.3 Y/A) and a touchdown.

It did not result in a wealth of fantasy points (QB17) since Chicago continues to get into the paint via the run game at such a high rate.

Williams has now completed 70.9% of his passes, second in the NFL.

He has completed 7.6% of his passes over expectations, second only to Joe Burrow.

Williams' evolution has been sensational under Ben Johnson.

He is checking all the boxes: running the designed offense as intended, taking what the defense leaves open, and creating out of structure like he always has.

The only minor nitpick is that we could have more as fantasy gamers if the Bears did not run so many touchdowns in.

Williams is the QB12 in passing points per dropback since he returned (0.43) because he is 17th in touchdown rate (3.9%).

Chicago has a 37.7% pass rate in the red zone, 30th in the league.

The Bears have scored 30 points against New England and 34 points against Seattle in the past two weeks, well above the rates those defenses allow.

Facing Seattle and New England these past two games (two top-12 pass defenses), Williams has thrown for the most yards per pass attempt those defenses have allowed.

Chicago gets another tough assignment here.

Tampa Bay is third in passing points allowed (10.8 per game), allowing a 62.2% completion rate (7th), 6.5 yards per pass attempt (9th), and a 3.7% touchdown rate (9th).

The Bucs have the highest interception rate in the league (4.4%),

That includes games against Joe Burrow (QB19), Jordan Love (QB19), and Dak Prescott (QB21) on their resume.

Williams has already faced the team first (Minnesota) and third (Seattle) in passing points allowed.

We can price in the matchup here for Williams as a fringe QB1, but Williams is tougher to move away from this week since it is not a strong streaming week.

The fantasy points haven't blown anyone away since he returned, but the way Williams is playing will inevitably lead to points if he keeps it up.

Williams had his fastest time to throw in Seattle (2.65 seconds from the snap), something we could see here.

The ball comes out fast and short against the Bucs.

Tampa Bay faces the fastest time to throw (2.63 seconds from the snap) and 6.6 air yards per throw (7th lowest).

The Bucs are doing some new things this year, adopting some of the mug-front looks we see Minnesota deploying.

Tampa Bay has had eight or more defenders at the line of scrimmage on 22.4% of pass plays, second only to Minnesota (29.4%).

The Vikings were in those looks on 30.8% of the pass plays Williams had in Week 2.

The Bucs have had 21 players log a pass rush this season, the most in the league.

The difference between Todd Bowles and Brian Flores is that Flores primarily plays quarters behind all his blitzes.

The Bucs prefer Cover 3 and single-high.

When Williams has been blitzed in single-high coverages, he has thrown for 8.3 yards per pass attempt.

The Bucs have dialed back their blitzes over the past two games, however.

They blitzed 23.7% of the time in Week 7 and 32% last week, their lowest rates of the year.

Over the opening six games, they blitzed everyone except Jordan Love 40% of the time or more.

Baker Mayfield

The Bucs have been in wild circumstances for the past two weeks, leading to some unique box scores.

When Mayfield returned two weeks ago, he threw 11 passes.

The Bucs had a defensive touchdown and led 33-6 at the half that game, so they naturally ran down the clock.

Last week, in a torrential downpour, they did not complete a pass, attempting just 3.

Even if the Bucs want to run the ball firsthand, the past two weeks were outlier atmospheres that produced pass rates 29.8% and 37.3% below expectations.

Those aren't real numbers over a large sample, even for the most run-first teams.

This is a good spot to see the Bucs forced to throw more as road dogs against a hot offense.

The question is what those results will look like.

When he has thrown, Mayfield is completing 61.8% of his passes (23rd) for 6.2 yards per pass attempt (26th).

The Bucs also may not have Emeka Egbuka back, as he opened the week still not practicing due to a foot injury.

Mayfield is a volatile QB2 here.

The Bears are a boom-or-bust defense.

They will give up big plays, allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt (30th) and a league-high 13.1 yards per completion.

Even last week, they had a blown coverage that led to a 43-yard touchdown.

But they are also fourth in success rate against passing plays (61.2%).

They are 10th in completion rate allowed (62.7%).

The Bears blitz 33.8% of the time (9th) and are fourth in pressure rate on blitzes (48.3%).

When Mayfield has been pressured, he has completed just 43.5% of his passes for 4.4 yards per pass attempt.

In the first game with Jeffery Simmons, the Bears allowed a season-low 50% completion rate and 5.5 yards per pass attempt.

Sam Darnold did throw 2 touchdowns, however, and had 17.5 fantasy points.

The Bears have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games.

Buccaneers vs. Bears Fantasy Running Back Preview

Bucky Irving

Irving has been an RB1 scorer in three of his past four games.

He has rushed for 100 yards in those three spike weeks, with games of 154, 106, and 170 yards.

Irving has 20 or more touches in each of his past four games.

Irving is a fantasy RB1.

Both teams want to run the ball in their hearts, but the Bucs may need to throw to stay in the game.

As road underdogs, they may need to come out of the run game, and the Bears have been a volatile run defense.

Chicago has a 67.6% success rate against backfield runs (6th), but they have also allowed a run of 10-plus yards on 10.3% of those runs (22nd).

They have allowed a first down or touchdown on just 16.2% of backfield runs, third in the league.

They are allowing 5.0 yards per touch to backs (27th), but only allow 104.6 total yards per game to backs (6th) because they face a league-low 20.9 backfield touches per game.

If the Bucs do fall behind, Irving has been targeted on 27.4% of his routes with Mayfield.

We just haven't seen them throw since Mayfield returned to the lineup.

D'Andre Swift

Swift did not find a lot of room to operate on Monday night, but a high touch count and scoring equity are all you need sometimes.

Swift had a season-high 29 touches on Monday.

He managed only 79 yards (2.7 yards per touch), but he got into the end zone twice to make up for the inefficiency.

Swift has averaged only 3.2 yards per carry over the past four games.

He has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 53% of his runs with 0.58 yards before contact per rush.

But he has been an RB1 scorer in four straight games since the injury to Kyle Monangai because he has scored in every game (7 touchdowns in total) and has handled 13, 20, 26, and 29 touches.

In tighter games over the past two weeks, Swift has taken on 92.9% and 84.4% of the backfield touches.

As long as Monangai remains out, Swift is a volume- and touchdown-based option on the RB1/RB2 line.

Both teams want to run the ball, but who will succeed?

This is another tough matchup for the run game.

The Bucs allow 3.6 YPC to running backs (8th) with a 69.8% success rate (4th).

They have a 22.1% stuff rate (4th).

Tampa Bay is fourth in points allowed per touch to running backs (0.73) and fourth in total yards allowed per game to backfields (100.5).

Buccaneers vs. Bears Fantasy Wide Receiver Preview

Luther Burden

Burden caught 7 of 9 targets for 56 yards and a touchdown on Monday night.

Since Williams returned to the lineup, Burden has had WR14, WR7, and WR8 scoring weeks.

Incredibly, he is doing that mainly by jumping out early.

Burden leads all wide receivers in first-quarter fantasy points (52.5).

He has a 31.7% target share (WR5) in the opening quarter, with a target on 43.2% of his routes.

He is the WR4 in first-half scoring and the WR5 in first-half receiving yardage (50.0).

In the second half, Burden is the WR42 (31.9 points), seeing 20.7% of targets and a target on 24% of his routes.

He is averaging 18.4 yards per game in the second half (WR54).

Burden has been a heavy part of the opening play-calling scripts, but his second-half usage aligns with how he is used and the Bears are winning games.

Chicago has a 51.6% dropback rate in the second half of games (30th).

In the second half, they have used 12 personnel 31.7% of the time (4th) and 13 personnel 18.5% (4th).

Even last week, without Cole Kmet, the Bears ran 12 personnel on 36.7% of their second-half snaps and 13 personnel 16.7% of the time.

Burden isn't playing in heavy personnel because he is not a factor in the run game.

He has a 30.4% route rate in 12 personnel and a 10.8% rate in 13 personnel.

Burden is an upside WR2 here.

This is a positive matchup for him to get the ball, since teams are attacking the Bucs with quick, short throws.

When Caleb Williams throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap, Burden leads the team with a 25.5% target share and 2.77 yards per route run.

Rome Odunze

Odunze caught 4 of 6 targets for 87 yards on Monday night in Seattle.

For the first time this season, Odunze has delivered back-to-back top-30 scoring weeks.

He still has no touchdowns, but he is averaging 16.7 yards per catch.

Odunze has 12 receptions of 20 or more yards, fourth in the league.

Among the top 20 players in catches of 20-plus yards, only Odunze and KC Concepcion have not scored a touchdown.

As a boom-or-bust WR3, Odunze has a tougher outlook here since the ball is typically thrown quick and short against the Bucs.

They have allowed 7 receptions to wide receivers this year on throws of 20 or more air yards (9th) and 2 touchdowns.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield to receivers, they have allowed a 43.1% catch rate (4th) and 3 touchdowns.

Chris Godwin

Godwin does not have a week higher than WR40 yet this season.

He is averaging a career-low 9.0 yards per reception.

We have not seen the Bucs throw or complete passes in the past two weeks, so it is hard to chase upside here.

Godwin is a WR4/FLEX.

That said, Godwin has a team-high 26.7% target share when Emeka Egbuka is off the field.

If Egbuka misses another game, Godwin gets a bump, as the Bucs are expected to throw more in this game.

Ted Hurst & Tez Johnson

Hurst and Johnson are both playing full time with Egbuka out.

It just hasn't mattered because the Bucs haven't thrown the ball.

Over the past two weeks, both have run a route on 94% of dropbacks.

Both are best left for single-game DFS dart throws because neither is a volume play, but each can put up big plays against a defense that has allowed big gains.

Hurst is averaging 16.2 air yards per target, and Johnson is averaging 20.1 air yards per target.

Kalif Raymond

Raymond has not had a top-48 week since Week 3.

He has 44 receiving yards over his past five games.

He can be used for quick hitters (averaging 5.5 air yards per target from Williams) but overall is a low-ceiling WR5/FLEX best used in single-game DFS.

Buccaneers vs. Bears Fantasy Tight End Preview

Colston Loveland (TRUST)

Loveland's fantasy stock has been resurrected with the return of Caleb Williams.

Over the past three weeks, Loveland has had three TE1 scoring weeks.

He has a position-high 28.9% target share over the past three weeks with 2.14 yards per route (TE9).

This is a good matchup for him to keep rolling.

When Williams has been blitzed, Loveland has a team-high 25% target share.

Against Cover 3, Williams has targeted Loveland a team-high 23.1% of the time.

Tight ends have 24.8% of the fantasy points allowed by the Bucs, the fifth-highest share.

Cade Otton

Otton has topped 38 yards once this season and hasn't finished higher than TE16 in a week, leaving him as a low-ceiling TE2 best used in showdown slates.

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