The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Commanders and Eagles.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Philadelphia | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 19.0 | ||
| 22.9 | 18 | Points/Gm | 20.8 | 24 |
| 19.4 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 26.8 | 26 |
| 59.1 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 59.6 | 24 |
| 63.8 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 19 |
| 5.3 | 17 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 12 |
| 5.1 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 31 |
| 48.19% | 4 | Rush% | 48.02% | 5 |
| 51.81% | 29 | Pass% | 51.98% | 28 |
| 44.12% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 46.73% | 25 |
| 55.88% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 53.27% | 8 |
- Philadelphia has trailed in just seven games this season, the fewest in the league.
- Washington has trailed for 65.3% of their offensive snaps, 28th in the league.
- The Eagles have a +16 sack differential over their past seven games, 2nd in the league.
- Washington has scored a league-low 6 points off takeaways over their past nine games.
- The Eagles have converted a league-high 69.4% (25 of 36) of their red zone trips into touchdowns.
- The Commanders have allowed a league-high 3.06 points per drive over their past seven games.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (TRUST): Hurts was not asked to do a lot of lifting on Sunday, but he was hyper-efficient.
Hurts connected on 12 of 15 passes (80%) for 175 yards (11.7 yards per pass attempt) with 3 touchdowns.
He also ran 7 times for 39 yards.
Hurts had 5 designed runs, his most in a game since Week 11.
Due to the blowout, Hurts did not even play in the fourth quarter but managed a QB9 (22.9 points) scoring week.
There is the potential that this game could be one-sided, and the Eagles do not have to throw much (they had a pass rate 16% below expectations on Sunday), but when they are throwing, Hurts is set up for success as a high-floor, high-upside QB1.
We have seen this Philadelphia offense struggle to punch up against quality defenses.
Still, Hurts has been a potent fantasy scorer in the matchups he should take advantage of over the back half of the season.
In Week 8, Hurts scored 25.4 points against the Giants.
In Week 12, he scored 30.9 points against the Cowboys.
On Sunday, 22.9 points against the Raiders.
Washington has been a target for us this season.
They are 31st in passing points allowed per game (17.5), allowing a 66.5% completion rate (24th), a league-high 8.4 yards per pass attempt, and a 6.5% touchdown rate (31st).
If Lane Johnson returns, then Hurts gets an added boost.
With Johnson on the field this season (247 dropbacks), Hurts has completed 70% of his passes for 7.6 yards per pass attempt with 12 touchdowns (5.9% TD rate) and 1 interception.
With Johnson off the field (211 dropbacks), Hurts has completed 60.3% of his passes for 7.1 Y/A with 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Marcus Mariota: Mariota only completed 10 of 19 passes (52.6%) on Sunday against the Giants, but he threw for 211 yards (11.1 Y/A) and a touchdown when he did complete passes.
He ran 10 times for an additional 43 yards.
Mariota can create with his legs, but he is a floor-based QB2 here.
The Eagles have allowed 23.5 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, the second-most in the league.
The Eagles are fourth in passing points allowed (10.8 per game), allowing a league-low 56.2% completion rate, 6.4 Y/A (6th), and a league-low 2.8% touchdown rate.
If you are looking for a path to upside for Mariota in a tough matchup, he did post 23.3 points in Week 13 against the Broncos.
He only completed 56% of his passes for 5.9 Y/A in that game, but Mariota threw for 294 yards with 2 touchdowns, adding 55 rushing yards.
Mariota threw for 160 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter and overtime.
While the production came late, it also came against the league's best defense.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley (TRUST): Barkley tallied 92 yards on 24 touches and a touchdown on Sunday.
He rushed for only 3.5 yards per carry, but Barkley still managed a high workload and got into the end zone.
The paths to a high workload and scoring potential exist here, keeping Barkley in play as a volume-based RB1 with added matchup upside.
Over the past five games, Washington has allowed 5.2 YPC to running backs (29th) with a 54.6% success rate (30th).
Over that span, they have allowed RB1 scoring weeks to Jahmyr Gibbs (172 total yards and 3 touchdowns), De’Von Achane (165 yards), RJ Harvey (62 yards and 2 touchdowns), and Tyrone Tracy (97 yards and 2 touchdowns).
If Johnson returns this week, that also is a positive for Barkley.
Barkley has rushed for 4.2 YPC with a run of 10 or more yards on 11.3% of his runs with Johnson on the field (4 touchdowns) compared to 3.6 YPC with a run of 10-plus yards on 7.8% of his attempts with Johnson absent (2 touchdowns).
Washington RBs: With Chris Rodriguez missing last week’s game with a groin injury, we saw Bill Croskey-Merritt get back into the mix.
Croskey-Merritt played 32 snaps (55.2%), handling a season-high 18 touches for 96 yards and a touchdown.
He did lose his third fumble of the season.
Jeremy McNichols played 27 snaps, turning 10 touches into only 22 yards, also losing a fumble.
We will follow the status of Rodriguez through the week, as he went through a pregame workout on Sunday before being ruled out.
If Rodriguez is back, he is a touchdown-dependent FLEX.
If Rodriguez is out again, Croskey-Merritt is an RB2/FLEX option.
This matchup is not as strong as last week's layout.
The Eagles have held up against the run without Jalen Carter over the last two weeks, allowing 3.7 YPC with a 73.7% success rate.
Wide Receiver
More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ Seahawks | Thursday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Saturday -- 5 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Bears | Saturday -- 8:20 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Texans | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| 49ers @ Colts | Monday Night Football |