The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 3 matchup between the Panthers and Falcons.
Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Carolina | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.0 | Spread | 5.0 | ||
| 24.25 | Implied Total | 19.25 | ||
| 21.0 | 21 | Points/Gm | 16.0 | 29 |
| 14.5 | 2 | Points All./Gm | 26.5 | 23 |
| 67.0 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 69.0 | 5 |
| 51.0 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 55.5 | 6 |
| 5.1 | 20 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.4 | 29 |
| 4.5 | 4 | Def. Yards/Play | 6 | 27 |
| 50.00% | 4 | Rush% | 31.88% | 31 |
| 50.00% | 29 | Pass% | 68.12% | 2 |
| 41.18% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 48.65% | 25 |
| 58.82% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 51.35% | 8 |
- Carolina has been outscored 40 to 6 in the first half to open the year, the worst points margin in the league over the first half.
- 13.8% of Carolina's plays have gained 10 or more yards, ahead of only the Titans (10.9%) and Eagles (9.2%).
- Atlanta has scored a touchdown on 14.3% of their drives, 28th in the league.
- Carolina has turned the ball over on 25% of their drives, 31st in the league.
- The Falcons have allowed 1.45 points per drive (second in the league) after allowing 2.33 points per drive in 2024 (28th).
- Carolina has a league-worst 1.8% sack rate defensively through two weeks.
- 20% of the drives against Atlanta have reached the red zone or scored prior, the lowest rate in the league.
- 50% of the drives against Carolina have reached the red zone or scored prior, 30th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Michael Penix: The Falcons did not ask Penix to do much on Sunday.
He ended the week QB31 (5.3 points), connecting on 13 of 21 passes for 135 yards (6.4 Y/A) without a touchdown or interception.
Atlanta had a 38.1% dropback rate last week, the lowest rate in the league.
They threw the ball 13% below expectation and 20% below expectation on first downs.
That was a common approach in this matchup last year.
Atlanta had a 44.1% dropback rate (31st that week) and a 51.9% rate (25th) in the two matchups between these teams last season.
The latter was a start by Penix in Week 18.
Penix threw for 312 yards and 2 touchdowns in that game despite a run-centric game plan.
That game was a 38-44 loss in overtime.
We have chased the potential to have some fun games with Carolina in both of the first two weeks, but they have not played along, getting steamrolled in the first half both weeks.
We need some push from the Panthers to move Penix up the board as more than a matchup-based QB2 this week.
Through two games, Jacksonville (41.9%) and Arizona (50%) had low dropback rates after halftime.
As a result, they only allowed a QB24 scoring week to Trevor Lawrence and a QB23 scoring week to Kyler Murray.
If we can coax out passing volume, Carolina is 28th in pressure rate (24.2%), allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt (20th).
Bryce Young: Young set career highs last week in completions (35), attempts (55), and passing yards (328), adding 3 touchdowns and an interception.
He only averaged 6.0 yards per pass attempt, but a jailbreak script opened up fantasy output through volume.
Young went 17 of 30 for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
Falling behind has pushed Carolina into a static passing offense.
Young has only had pre-snap motion on 29.3% of his dropbacks (second to last) and used play action on a league-low 11.1%.
Carolina will be without two offensive linemen this weekend with Robert Hunt and Austin Corbett sidelined.
For what it is worth, both players missed that Week 18 shootout between these teams when Young was the QB1 overall (36.4 fantasy points).
The difference in missing those players up front here is that this Atlanta defense has been getting after the quarterback at a higher rate to open this season.
The Falcons are third in the NFL in pressure rate through two weeks (46.3%).
They have an 11.7% sack rate (fourth).
When Young has been pressured so far this season, he has completed 44.8% of his passes for 4.9 yards per pass attempt.
Last season’s shootout between these teams is something you can chase with Young as a QB2.
Still, this layout feels significantly different from where Carolina was as a competitive team at that point compared to where they have opened this season.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content, click below to learn more about our Fantasy Package.
Learn MoreMore Week 3 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Dolphins @ Bills | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Bears | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Giants | Sunday Night Football |
| Lions @ Ravens | Monday Night Football |