The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Patriots and Falcons.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | ||
| 19.75 | Implied Total | 25.25 | ||
| 17.1 | 28 | Points/Gm | 26.6 | 8 |
| 22.0 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 18.3 | 4 |
| 62.7 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 60.6 | 20 |
| 56.1 | 4 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 55.4 | 2 |
| 5.5 | 15 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 8 |
| 4.9 | 7 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 18 |
| 44.65% | 14 | Rush% | 47.22% | 6 |
| 55.35% | 19 | Pass% | 52.78% | 27 |
| 49.36% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 39.05% | 9 |
| 50.64% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 60.95% | 24 |
- The Patriots lead the NFL in passing play success rate (52.7%). The league average is 43.9%.
- The Patriots are tied for 2nd in the league in passing plays of 20-plus yards (29).
- The Patriots have allowed 28 passing plays of 20 or more yards, tied for the 2nd most in the league.
- Atlanta games are a league-high 6-1 toward the under this season.
- New England has led at the half in a league-high seven games this season.
- The Falcons have converted 45% (9 of 20) of their red zone trips into touchdowns, 29th in the league.
- Atlanta is averaging 1.03 points per drive on the road this season, ahead of only the Titans (1.00).
- The Patriots have allowed a touchdown on 15.7% of opponent possessions over the past five weeks (3rd) after a 23.3% rate over the opening three games (19th).
- 41.7% (5 of 12) of Atlanta's touchdowns have been via the pass, the lowest rate in the league.
- Atlanta has scored 6 points off takeaways, 30th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Drake Maye: Maye kept up the blistering start to his second season on Sunday.
Last week, we highlighted that the matchup against Cleveland was the biggest test Maye had faced all season.
He came out of that game as the QB2 (26.3 points) for the week.
Maye has now been a top-10 scorer in six of his past seven games.
He was once again excellent downfield, connecting on 8 of 11 throws 10 or more yards downfield for 199 yards and a touchdown.
On those throws this season, Maye leads the NFL with a 137.5 rating, completing a league-high 70.1% of those passes for 14.9 yards per attempt with 7 touchdowns and 1 interception.
The league average on those throws for rating qualifiers is a 47.8% completion percentage.
As a byproduct of that downfield efficiency, Maye’s completion rate is 10.8% over expectations, the highest in the league.
30% of Maye’s dropbacks have resulted in 1.0 EPA or higher, third in the league.
He also rushed 50 yards on Sunday, sitting fourth at the position in rushing yards (250) on the year.
If there is one ounce of shade to poke here, Maye’s 11% sack rate is 31st in the league.
Outside of that, Maye has delivered in spades this season and is firmly entrenched as a fantasy QB1.
This is another matchup that looks iffy on paper, but the Atlanta defense is coming off allowing 4 touchdowns to Tua Tagovailoa.
Atlanta still has not allowed more than 205 passing yards in a game this season and is still allowing only 6.2 Y/A, which is second in the league.
They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of their past four games, however.
Atlanta is blitzing on 42.1% of their snaps (2nd).
Maye leads the league in completion rate against the blitz (76.6%) for 8.1 Y/A (11th) with 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
They are playing Cover 3 53.9% of the time, the highest rate in the league.
Maye has posted 9.3 Y/A against Cover 3 looks this season (5th).
Michael Penix: Penix ended up being held out last week due to a bone bruise, but the silver lining is that Kirk Cousins was so bad that it bought Penix a ton of runway and quickly silenced any immediate ideas of a potential quarterback controversy.
Penix has been a mixed bag to open his second season.
He is averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt (12th), while posting a 1.5% interception rate (12th) and a 4.4% sack rate (6th).
He has done a good job preventing negative plays and has been best working as a complement to the running game.
However, there are some soft spots under the hood.
His 2.6% touchdown rate is ahead of only Cam Ward (1.7%).
His 13.3% inaccurate throw rate is 30th.
When Atlanta is not playing complementary football and is forced into clear passing situations, that is where some of the issues present themselves.
While trailing, Penix is 30th in rating (70.2), completing 57.5% of his passes (29th) for 6.3 Y/A (23rd).
On third downs needing five or more yards, Penix has completed 47.2% of his passes (31st).
He has also had his worst moments on the road this season.
Only Ward has a worse rating on the road than Penix (66.5).
Penix has completed 54.7% of his passes on the road (31st) for 5.8 Y/A (29th) and a league-low 1.1% touchdown rate.
That leaves Penix as a back-end QB2 here.
The Patriots are still vulnerable to allowing chunk gains through the air, but they have limited fantasy output.
They are allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt (26th), but they have not broken.
They have not allowed a QB1 scoring week yet this season.
The resume is light overall due to the soft strength of their schedule outside of facing Josh Allen, but Penix fits into that bucket of passers they have faced this year.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 9 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Dolphins | Thursday Night Football |
| Bears @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Cardinals @ Cowboys | Monday Night Football |