Each week we use the free tools at Sharp Football Stats to find the best options for DFS stacks.
We’re faced with just four teams on bye this week so there are 11 games on the main slate to choose from. There are two games with a 50+ game total again this week, but we’re looking at six teams that are implied to score 25 or more on their own. Looking at season-long pace is certainly an important part of the process every week, but there are a few teams who have shown drastic swings in pace over the past three weeks in one-score games.
The Falcons and Eagles have shown some of the biggest swings from fast-paced to slower-paced in one-score games. The Browns, Buccaneers, and Patriots are at the other end of the spectrum, speeding up in these scenarios. Three weeks might not be enough to draw strong conclusions, but it’s something to monitor moving forward.
Game Stack
One of the games that I’m most interested in getting exposure to is the Carolina-Atlanta game. I did just mention the Falcons seem to be slowing down a bit. Since the start of Week 7, Atlanta is throwing at the second-highest rate with a 66-34 pass/run split. Running back a Panthers stack with Calvin Ridley ($5,500) seems optimal this week. With both Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper set to miss time, Ridley’s floor of targets seems safer than ever.
On the Panthers’ side, capturing all of the touchdown equity and going with Kyle Allen ($5,300) and Christian McCaffrey ($10,500) seems like it’s in play.
The rest of the running backs in Carolina have totaled 19 carries on the season compared to McCaffrey’s 185. He’s efficient everywhere and this game has the makings of a shootout. If you’re not as interested in paying all the way up for McCaffrey, The target concentration for the Panthers under Allen has been tight.
DJ Moore ($5,900) and Curtis Samuel ($5,300) have led the way among pass catchers with 55 and 51 targets, respectively. They function as mirror images of each other, with Moore owning the targets short and to the left and Samuel on the right. They’ll likely be popular options, but a double stack with Allen and bringing it back with Ridley is an option if you’re looking to avoid the CMC chalk.
QB-WR Stack
Lost in the shuffle of the revolving door that has been installed in the Patriots wide receiver room is the fact that Julian Edelman ($7,600) has been incredibly consistent. At his price point, he should go under-owned relative to the options around him.
It’s pretty obvious that Tom Brady ($6,400) looks for Edelman early and often. He’s had 49 targets since the beginning of October with four straight double-digit target games. Brady hasn’t had many spike weeks this year because of a lack of passing touchdowns. The Eagles are 25th in the league when it comes to yards per attempt allowed to the wide receiver position.
RB-DEF Stack
Oakland is the second-biggest favorite on the board at -10.5. Their defense is just sixth-most expensive on the slate at $3,300. They’ve had 15 sacks over their last five games with three separate 3+ sack performances. They’ve also had multiple interceptions in two games over that span. They’re going up against a Ryan Finley-led Bengals team that could be forced to throw the ball 30+ times.
The ceiling play of this game is Josh Jacobs ($6,900). Home favorites with such a huge spread will always be popular options, but it should be worth it against a hopeless Bengals team.
Jacobs is the only game in town when it comes to rushing. He’s seen at least 15 rushing attempts in all but two games this season and has never been in the single-digits. Jacobs also saw a bit of a bump in pass-game usage last week with the first five targets of his young career.