Finding The Right DFS Stack: Week 15

Each week we use the free tools at Sharp Football Stats to identify the best stacks for your DFS lineup

We’re going to start off this week as we have a few times this season by looking at how teams are trending in regards to their pace of play. The chart below shows their pace when within six points in either direction — winning or losing. The chart on the left shows Weeks 1-10 while the chart on the right shows the last four weeks.

The Cardinals have slowed down by nearly five seconds per play. That dropped them from the fastest team through Week 10, to the 27th fastest over the last month. The Broncos have also slowed down quite a bit. They’ve gone from 5th to 23rd fastest within those same splits. Since taking over, Ryan Tannehill has led an offensive resurgence in Nashville. That has come along with an up-tempo offense. They’ve gone from 27th to the 8th fastest team. 

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QB-TE Stack

Kansas City has stayed in the top five and even sped up a bit over the past month. They haven’t been the slate breaking offense we came to know and love last year. Patrick Mahomes ($7,100) is the most expensive QB on the slate. He’s finished as a QB2 for three straight weeks, though. Regression was bound to hit the offense as a whole, but is this stretch a sign of poor play or bad luck?

It’s more the latter than the former, in my opinion. Overall, Mahomes, from a passer rating perspective, has been above average to all sections of the field. Since Week 10, there’s been a clear preference for Mahomes.

Tyreek Hill ($7,500) and Travis Kelce ($6,500) are head and shoulders above Sammy Watkins ($4,900) and the rest of the pass catchers from KC. I’m intrigued by Kelce this week. In six of his last seven games, he’s seen 8+ targets. How about that other game? Well, in that game he saw seven targets. It’s rare to be able to get players like Mahomes and Kelce at lower ownership.

QB-WR Stack

Kyler Murray ($5,600) has struggled mightily over the last two weeks. He’s basically the same price as Nick Foles who’s a backup and Kyle Allen who should be a backup. 

This is one of the most interesting tools on the site, looking at the playcalling tendencies and seeing the most frequent plays at different downs and distances. As you can see, Christian Kirk ($5,500) is relied on in all types of different situations. 

The target tree consists of Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald lapping the rest of the pass catchers in Arizona. Fitzgerald hasn’t done much with those targets as he hasn’t recorded a WR1 finish since Week 1. Kirk is the stack here as both him and Murray are far too cheap. 

RB-DEF Stack

I’m not usually one to advocate paying up for defenses. That is doubly true for popular options at defense. The Seahawks DST ($3,700) is more expensive than I usually like to pay but it’s warranted this week and they’ll be low-owned. They’ve been opportunistic lately, forcing eight fumbles and six interceptions over the past four games. During that stretch, they’ve had double-digit DK Points three times. Kyle Allen ($5,400) has taken 21 sacks and thrown seven interceptions over the past four weeks. 

Chris Carson ($7,500) is suddenly the last man standing in the Seahawks backfield after Rashaad Penny’s injury. Even before the injury, the Seahawks were using Carson early and often.

Carson is sandwiched between Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb in total opportunities on the season. Only five running backs in the league have seen more opportunities this year.