Finding The Right DFS Stack: Week 4

Each week we’ll be using the tools available at Sharp Football Stats to find the best stacks for DFS rosters.

Now that we’re through three weeks of the season we can start to count on some trends we’re noticing. Jumping to conclusions after Week 1 or Week 2 is premature but we can definitely start to strengthen some of our opinions now. The pricing on DraftKings hasn’t quite adjusted to some of the trends that are becoming evident as we approach the end of the first quarter of the season. 

Game Stack

The pick of Daniel Jones ($5,300) by the New York Giants was universally mocked on draft night. He looks more like what the Giants’ front office expected than what Twitter expected, though. Granted it was one game against a defense that isn’t too intimidating but the Giants are playing a Washington team that has already allowed six passing TDs. Who’s the best option to stack with him?

There are really only two options in my mind. Both Sterling Shepard ($5,800) and Evan Engram ($5,700) make some sense. They were the most targeted options in Jones’s debut. The target distribution will likely be just as tight this week, if not tighter with the loss of Saquon Barkley opening up an extra couple of short targets for Engram. I’m leaning Shepard in GPPs because the Giants dialed up some deep balls and because he’ll definitely see less ownership than Engram. 

Running it back with Terry McLaurin ($4,500) is the obvious play here for the game stack. McLaurin has scored at least 17.2 DK Points in each of his first three starts. In the areas of the field that Scary Terry has been asked to do most of his work, he’s thrived. In the three sections of the field that he’s seen at least 25% of his targets, he has no worse than a 92 Passer Rating when targeted. 

Traditional Stack

Most weeks, I’m looking to get exposure to the Rams in my GPP portfolio and this week is no exception. Jared Goff ($6,300) is an excellent option every week, especially when the Rams are playing at home. They, like the Giants, have a very tight target distribution.

Both Robert Woods ($6,100) and Brandin Cooks ($6,200) have respectable target numbers through the first few weeks of the season, but Cooper Kupp ($6,500) is in a league of his own. He’s seen 31 targets already this year and hasn’t had a game with fewer than nine so far. With the running game looking worse and worse, Kupp has been used in short-range as a quasi-extension of the running game. So far this season, Kupp has only had one target that’s traveled 15+ yards in the air but that hasn’t affected his DK Scoring output with an average of over 22 points per game. 

Team Stack

Without adjusting for game script, Arizona is the second most pass-heavy team in the league through three weeks. When they’re leading or behind by a score, they throw 69% of the time. More often than not, when Kyler Murray ($6,000) is throwing to someone it’s going to be Christian Kirk ($5,100) or Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600). 

If you haven’t noticed a theme this week, it’s concentrated target shares. It seems silly, but it’s an overlooked part of picking players in DFS each week. We want as much predictability as possible, and teams like the Cardinals are providing those opportunities to exploit. Kirk and Fitzgerald are accounting for nearly half of Murray’s passing attempts. If you aren’t interested in the largest portions of one of the pass happiest teams in the league than I’m not sure if this is the hobby to pursue. I have no issues at all stacking both of these guys in the same lineup with Murray.