The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Raiders and Jaguars.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Las Vegas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.0 | Spread | 3.0 | ||
| 24.25 | Implied Total | 21.25 | ||
| 20.9 | 25 | Points/Gm | 14.7 | 31 |
| 22.1 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 25.7 | 23 |
| 65.4 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 56.1 | 29 |
| 61.0 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.0 | 20 |
| 5.1 | 23 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 27 |
| 5.5 | 23 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 14 |
| 39.08% | 26 | Rush% | 43.26% | 15 |
| 60.92% | 7 | Pass% | 56.74% | 18 |
| 37.94% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 42.17% | 15 |
| 62.06% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 57.83% | 18 |
- The Raiders average -8.2 offensive EPA per game, ahead of only the Browns (-10.8) and Titans (-10.9).
- The Raiders are averaging 1.37 points per drive, 30th in the league.
- The Raiders have converted a league-low 38.9% (7 of 18) of their red zone trips into touchdowns.
- The Jaguars are averaging 1.71 points per drive, 27th.
- The Jaguars are averaging 1.47 points per drive over their past four games (28th).
- The Jaguars have converted a league-worst 42.3% (11 of 26) of their third and shorts (needing 3 or fewer yards). The league average is 59.9%.
- Las Vegas has turned the ball over on a league-high 16% of their drives.
- The Jaguars have a takeaway on 17.7% of opponent drives, second in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence comes out of the bye QB20 in fantasy points per game (16.0).
He is averaging 6.3 yards per pass attempt (26th) with a 3.5% touchdown rate (26th).
Lawrence is completing 58.7% of his passes, ahead of only Cam Ward (57.7%).
Lawrence has completed 6.9% fewer passes than expected.
The only quarterback to complete at a lower rate than expectations is Caleb Williams (-7.1%).
Lawrence has had a combination of an 8.1% drop rate (2nd highest) paired with a 12.4% inaccurate target rate (28th).
While he only has two QB1 scoring weeks, he has scored at least 17 fantasy points in three straight games.
He has some appeal here as a matchup-based QB2.
We have seen the Jacksonville offensive line become shaky of late.
Lawrence has been pressured on 54.3%, 52%, and 47.4% of his dropbacks over the past three games after a league-low 20% pressure rate in Weeks 1 through 4.
Those games came against the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams.
The heat should be lighter here.
The Raiders are 26th in pressure rate (31.1%) and 23rd in sack rate (6%).
Without pressure, the Raiders have allowed a 76.1% completion rate (26th) and 7.7 yards per pass attempt (21st).
Geno Smith: The opening start for Smith’s tenure with the Raiders could not be going much worse.
Exiting the bye, Smith is 31st in rating (77.1) among 33 qualifiers, ahead of only Ward (71.7) and Jake Browning (70.5).
He has a 5% interception rate (ahead of only Browning’s 6.5%) with an 8.6% sack rate (26th).
For fantasy, Smith has been the QB26 or lower in five of his seven games.
He is a back-end QB2 option.
The Jaguars did allow 5 passing touchdowns to Matthew Stafford in London in Week 7 if chasing something, but also only 5.5 yards per pass attempt in that game.
They have allowed a 61.9% completion rate (6th) and 6.9 Y/A (15th) outside of that inflated 5.8% touchdown rate (22nd).
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 9 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Dolphins | Thursday Night Football |
| Bears @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Cardinals @ Cowboys | Monday Night Football |