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Just as free agency started to calm down, the Broncos made a big move for both real and fantasy football.
Denver sent a package of picks that includes No. 30 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft to Miami for Jaylen Waddle.
Let's look at how this trade affects the fantasy value of Waddle as well as Denver's (former?) No. 1 receiver Courtland Sutton.
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Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Value With the Denver Broncos
Waddle opened his career with some big seasons, but he has fallen off from a counting stats perspective in the last couple of years.
Jaylen Waddle Career Stats
| Year | Games | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Y/R | Air Yards/Tar | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 16 | 140 | 104 | 1,015 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 6 |
| 2022 | 17 | 117 | 75 | 1,356 | 18.1 | 12.1 | 8 |
| 2023 | 14 | 104 | 72 | 1,014 | 14.1 | 10.1 | 4 |
| 2024 | 15 | 83 | 58 | 744 | 12.8 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 2025 | 16 | 100 | 64 | 910 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6 |
Waddle has not topped 1,000 yards since 2023, when he had just 1,014.
From a fantasy perspective, he has been the WR23, WR52, and WR28 in per-game scoring in half-PPR formats over the last three seasons.
That said, the advanced numbers last season looked a lot better than the overall counting production.
Jaylen Waddle Advanced Stats
| Year | Yards/Route | Targets/Route | Target Share | Air Yard Share | Off Target Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1.76 | 24.2% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 10.7% |
| 2022 | 2.59 | 22.4% | 20.8% | 27.0% | 8.5% |
| 2023 | 2.63 | 27.0% | 18.9% | 24.6% | 10.6% |
| 2024 | 1.56 | 17.4% | 14.6% | 22.9% | 12.0% |
| 2025 | 2.25 | 24.8% | 21.6% | 39.6% | 16.0% |
With Tyreek Hill getting hurt early in the season, we saw exactly the kind of usage we want for Waddle.
Among the 94 receivers who ran at least 250 routes last season, Waddle was:
- WR15 in target rate per route
- WR18 in target share
- WR3 in air yard share
- WR10 in yards per route run
Unfortunately, he was WR58 among that group in routes per game as the Dolphins both leaned into the run (55.8% dropback rate, 27th) and struggled to maintain drives (69.2% down set conversion, 25th).
The Broncos were fifth in neutral dropback rate last season (62.8%) and fourth in pass rate over expected (5.5%, per Fantasy Points).
Overall, Denver had 150 more dropbacks than Miami during the regular season.
That extra volume is good because Waddle is going to a passing game that already has a high-end target.
Last year, Courtland Sutton had a 21.2% target share, and he saw 24.6% of Denver's targets the year before.
That decrease in target share is interesting and perhaps telling, especially when paired with Troy Franklin‘s usage during a stretch of last season.
Over the first 11 weeks, Franklin had a higher target share (22.1% to 20.2%), a higher target rate per route (24.0% to 19.0%), and even saw more end zone targets (9 to 6) than Sutton.
Franklin did not make the most of those opportunities, but his usage was telling about what the Broncos wanted from their passing game.
Franklin averaged a robust 14.1 air yards per target over those 11 weeks, but he saw 21.0% of his targets behind the line of scrimmage, and 50.6% of his targets traveled fewer than 10 yards downfield in the air.
In fact, among the 94 receiver group mentioned above, Franklin had the fifth-highest screen rate per route.
Franklin was an inside-outside receiver during those 11 weeks, playing 52% of his snaps out wide and 47.4% in the slot.
Waddle is seemingly a perfect fit for the role Franklin occupied over the first half of last season.
He is also a better receiver than Franklin who should find more success both after the catch on shorter routes and as a shot player down the field.
Franklin was already the top target earner in that role last season before falling off, so there is every reason to expect Waddle to out-target Sutton, assuming health for both this season.
Waddle is going to have more target competition in Denver, but he is joining a team that will certainly throw more than Miami was going to this season, and it is fair to assume he is at worst the 1A in the pecking order.
This is an easy win for his fantasy value.
Courtland Sutton 2026 Fantasy Value
All of the stuff mentioned above is a concern for Sutton, who could see his hold on the lion's share of Denver's targets go away.
Despite being a touchdown scorer, Sutton has not traditionally been strong on a per-target basis for fantasy.
He has averaged 1.41 receiving fantasy points per target in his career.
That would have been the WR39 among qualified receivers last year.
During that 11-week run with Franklin as the highest target earner on the team, Sutton was the WR24 in per-game scoring in half-PPR leagues.
He scored fewer than 10 half-PPR points in six of those 11 games.
Touchdowns could be the saving grace for Sutton from a fantasy perspective.
He had 14 end zone targets last season (WR4), and he has 14 or more in every season since 2021.
As mentioned above, though, Franklin had more end zone targets in those first 11 games playing a role we would expect Waddle to occupy moving forward.
Just looking at the archetype of each player — Waddle has 25 end zone targets total in his career — we should expect Sutton to maintain his role close to the end zone, but Franklin's lead in that category last season is worth mentioning.
Even if Sutton maintains his touchdown equity, this is unquestionably bad for his fantasy outlook, and he will be something of a tough click at WR34.
As for Waddle, he looks like a value at his current WR26 price, though we have to see where that settles once this trade gets priced into ADP.