NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them. Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.
If a wide receiver who was projected for nine points instead earns 22 points, then there is a strong likelihood that his performance came at the detriment of a teammate, or even a member of the opposing team. His running back likely received less opportunity, while the opposing team’s running back may have seen a boost. In this scenario, his quarterback may have also produced well.
The game theory is much more intricate than this one example, but it gets you down the path of thinking of showdown as an if/then rather than a raw projection.
There may be times when Cooper Kupp finishes as the best play of the slate without Matthew Stafford, and other times Jonathan Taylor may rush for 200 yards while Matt Ryan and Michael Pittman still make the optimal lineup. Showdown is non-binary, but over time sound lineup construction will reign supreme.
Most important of all:
The likeliest outcome is only one of infinite outcomes. When rostership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario. The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.
Slate Breakdown
The Los Angeles Chargers are heading to Indianapolis to take on the Colts as 4-point favorites. The total is set at 45.5.
Injury Notes
Kylen Granson– Ankle – Out
Los Angeles Chargers Offense
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: $10,400
Herbert gets the rare benefit of a fully active supporting cast once again this week. In Week 15 targets were identical between Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, with Josh Palmer taking an expected back seat. Gerald Everett also managed to carve out a role with Los Angeles’ big three active. We’re looking to heavily stack Herbert and have multiple secondary options to make it work while keeping our lineups unique.
Running back
Austin Ekeler: $11,000
The priority is stacking Hebert, but Ekeler poses an issue considering he’s $800 more expensive and can be negatively correlated depending on how the game script shakes out. He’s also going to be highly rostered, making the pairing with Herbert seem even less appealing. Ultimately his median projection is too high to consider fully fading, so we will be hoping for a ceiling game in targets while pairing him and Herbert with multiple ancillary pass catchers to lower the cumulative exposure.
Joshua Kelley: $5,200
Kelley has played roughly 40% of the snaps over the past three weeks. Last week he matched his season high in attempts with 10 and scored his second touchdown of the season. The game script that would benefit Kelley’s involvement would also benefit Ekeler. Kelley and Ekeler make a unique correlated pairing without Herbert for lineups predicated around the Chargers covering the spread and controlling the game.
Receiver
Keenan Allen: $9,800
Allen has been back for five games and has not seen fewer than seven targets. Over the past three games, he’s averaging just over 12 targets a game. He’s being targeted like one of the league’s top receivers, but he’s priced as a strong secondary option like Jaylen Waddle or Tee Higgins. Allen is the preferred stacking option for Herbert.
Mike Williams: $9,400
Williams has also earned a respectable target share over the past two weeks, but his ceiling has been Allen’s floor. The only difference is how they score points. Williams can easily match Allen’s full receiving performance on one play. They’re both strong options but Williams fits better at Captain or in the Flex with Herbert and no other Chargers receivers.
Joshua Palmer: $6,400
Palmer has taken a back seat with both Allen and Williams active, but his role is still promising at cost. Over the past two games, he’s averaged roughly 70% of the snaps and has seen at least five targets. He will carry low ownership which will help with our top-heavy Chargers stacks.
Gerald Everett: $4,800
Everett is the most inexplicably priced player on the Chargers’ offense. He’s been just as involved as Palmer but is almost $2,000 less. His yardage output has been underwhelming but his expected targets are plenty fair at cost.
Punt Plays
DeAndre Carter: $2,400
Carter is earning exactly two targets per game with the full band back together. He’s only playing around 20% of the snaps. He’s a bit rich at cost, but he’s worth having some exposure to in large field tournaments.
Favorite Stack
Justin Herbert / Austin Ekeler / Gerald Everett / Alec Pierce
Four-point spreads can be iffy. If Ekeler punches in two early touchdowns, our Herbert Captain lineups are dead on arrival. If the Chargers manage to let the Colts hang around, which they’ve been known to do, then Ekeler has the chance to see more than 10 targets. I’ll take the chance on pairing the two and force myself to be unique with the rest of the lineup. Everett and Pierce are a great start to that point. Everett is getting a similar opportunity to Palmer, and will probably be slightly higher owned, but we’re going to need the savings. Pierce is an excellent salary saver just outside of punt play pricing while playing a full-time role for the Colts.
Indianapolis Colts Offense
Quarterback
Nick Foles: $9,000
The Colts are on to Plan C at quarterback with the former Super Bowl MVP taking the reins. We haven’t seen a start for Foles since 2021, but with the state of Indianapolis to this point, I’m treating it as more of the same. They’re going to lean on their two backs for as long as they can stomach it. Foles is viable in the flex with one of his pass catchers strictly due to his low ownership paired with the ceiling his position affords him.
Running back
Deon Jackson: $7,600
With Jonathan Taylor out for the remainder of the season, the Colts are relying upon Jackson and Zack Moss. Jackson is the incumbent, but Moss has been more productive of late. Even as an expensive dart throw there is not much reason to consider Jackson when Moss will be given more opportunity at a reasonable exposure.
Zack Moss: $7,000
Moss played the majority of the snaps last week and handled a whopping 25 opportunities. He’s got the safest floor of all Colts, but he needs at least a touchdown to give us a chance.
Receiver
Michael Pittman: $8,200
Pittman offers us a unique roster construction paired with Foles. Paying up on two Colts passing options while still stacking four Chargers forces us to pair Herbert with multiple low-priced receiving options.
Parris Campbell: $5,400
Campbell’s hot start has fizzled out over the back half of the season. He’s still playing over 80% of the snaps, but he’s averaged fewer than five targets per game over the last three. His price has come down, which keeps him in play as a low-rostered run-back option to Chargers stacks.
Alec Pierce: $2,800
Pierce and Jelani Woods are the two Colts we want to focus on the most. Both of their prices are egregious relative to the ceilings they’ve demonstrated. Pierce is playing nearly as many snaps as Campbell and has had a similar target share over the past two weeks. He caught zero of his five targets last week, which will hopefully result in low exposure for this contest.
Jelani Woods: $2,800
Woods’s usage has been equal parts fascinating and infuriating to this point. It’s fascinating just how productive he could be when considering his draft capital and the nature of his position. It’s frustrating because the Colts seemingly forget he exists on a week-to-week basis. Either way, at cost and exposure, Woods is a great run-back option to help fit some of the expensive Chargers.
Punt plays
Ashton Dulin: $2,600
Deguara has received a target in 7 of 13 games and is playing 50% of the snaps. At minimum salary, Deguara is worth having some exposure to as a dart throw.
Favorite Stack
Austin Ekeler / Nick Foles / Joshua Kelley / Michael Pittman
This build can be executed with multiple low-priced pass catchers instead of Pittman, but this stack forces us off Herbert, who will be nearly 100% owned. With Ekeler’s red zone usage, it’s not difficult to imagine two rushing touchdowns. If we get another from Kelley, Herbert has no outs to land in the optimal lineup. Foles is certainly a question mark, but underdog quarterbacks have gone under-utilized all season and he can easily be game-scripted into a pass-heavy approach.