The first day of the NFL draft promises to be fun for fantasy purposes.
With that, we will not beat around the bush.
Let's walk through the fantasy-centric selections and trades from the opening night of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Jump To:
- Bears select Caleb Williams No. 1 overall
- Commanders select Jayden Daniels No. 2 overall
- Patriots select Drake Maye No. 3 overall
- Cardinals select Marvin Harrison Jr. No. 4 overall
- Giants select Malik Nabers No. 6 overall
- Falcons select Michael Penix No. 8 overall
- Bears select Rome Odunze No. 9 overall
- Vikings select J.J. McCarthy No. 10 overall
- Broncos select Bo Nix No. 12 overall
- Raiders select Brock Bowers No. 13 overall
- Jaguars select Brian Thomas Jr. No. 23 overall
- Chiefs select Xavier Worthy No. 28 overall
- 49ers select Ricky Pearsall No. 31 overall
- Panthers select Xavier Legette No. 32 overall
Bears Make it Official, Select Caleb Williams
No surprises out of the box.
After the Bears officially moved on from Justin Fields earlier this offseason, the selection of Caleb Williams was all but etched in stone.
He exits college with a 97th percentile score in career passing production in my prospect model for all quarterbacks going back to 2000.
For his career, Williams ranks in the 92nd percentile in yards per pass attempt (9.2 Y/A). He averaged over 9.0 yards per pass attempt in all three seasons at college.
He is in the 96th percentile in touchdown to interception ratio (6.6:1) and in the 85th percentile in completion percentage (66.9%).
Known for his ad-libbing and ability to play outside of structure, Williams has drawn comparisons to Patrick Mahomes as a ceiling outcome.
No quarterback in this draft class had more pass attempts outside of the pocket in 2023 than Williams did (88) per Sports Info Solutions.
On those plays outside of the pocket, he averaged 9.4 Y/A (third in the class) with a 12.5% touchdown rate (also third).
He was sacked on just 4.3% of his dropbacks outside of the pocket (third-best in the class) despite having the most dropbacks on the move.
Inside of the pocket, Williams averaged 9.4 Y/A, third in this class.
He also comes with an 88th-percentile career mark in rushing production.
I do not believe Williams will be a rusher to the degree of the top-flight runners in the NFL.
I believe he will be more touchdown-dependent in that regard than an outright scrambler, but he can be used in the read-option game as well as near the goal line.
Paired with his passing profile, Williams could be in the bucket of what we had in early-career Deshaun Watson from a fantasy-lens as an apex outcome.
Williams rushed for 27 touchdowns in college.
With the NFL using their quarterbacks more than ever near the end zone on the ground, Williams led this draft class with seven of his 11 rushing touchdowns in 2023 coming inside of the five-yard line.
Despite being pressured on 36.7% of his red zone dropbacks in 2023, he did not throw a red zone interception. His 79.2% on-target throw rate in the red zone was the best in this draft class.
On third and fourth down passes, Wiliams still led this class with 9.6 Y/A and did not throw an interception despite being pressured on 42.6% of those dropbacks (third highest).
Going to Chicago, Williams is in a more favorable position than many previous quarterbacks selected at No. 1 overall given how Chicago landed the top pick after trading out a year ago.
Williams will be starting his career throwing to D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen.
You can make a strong case that this is the best WR1-WR2 duo that a quarterback selected at No. 1 overall has had as a rookie since Carson Palmer worked with both Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh in their primes.
Palmer also sat his entire rookie season before working with those two.
Chicago has a new play-caller in Shane Waldron to go along with Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift, and Gerald Everett. Chicago could also still add another playmaker at pick No. 9.
They also currently have the third-easiest projected schedule for this upcoming season.
From a Dynasty perspective, Williams vaults right into mid-QB1 contention.
I do question if we will get enough rushing for Williams to consistently threaten the top scorers at the position every year, but you can make a strong case that he has more overall upside as a combo-fantasy option than what we had in C.J. Stroud a year ago as a prospect.
He should be the No. 1 pick in SuperFlex formats
From a 2024 season-long stance, we should not expect Williams to replicate what Stroud provided out of the box for gamers, but it is hard to push back on his current QB12 pricing in early ADP.
I have him right in that strike zone at QB14 in overall points in early projections, and I tend to be a conservative projector.
Top Golf Be Damned, Commanders Take Jayden Daniels
I believe there is an absolute case to make for Daniels being the QB1 in this class, especially when looking at things through a fantasy lens.
While Caleb Williams is going to add a rushing component to his game, Daniels will be built around it.
Daniels rushed for 60.1 yards per game over his collegiate career with 34 touchdowns, registering a 96th-percentile career rushing score on my end.
In 2023, he rushed for 1,134 yards and 10 scores.
Daniels could have a rookie-season impact on the Robert Griffin spectrum in his range of outcomes, which is fitting given his landing spot.
If Daniels ends up as an above-the-board passer in the NFL, then his ceiling is in contention to be the QB1 in overall scoring in a given season.
The difference the 2023 Heisman winner has compared to someone such as Anthony Richardson from a year ago is that his passing resume is so much stronger. He takes less projection in outright flatlining.
As a 19-year-old freshman at Arizona State, Daniels averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt while throwing 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
He is coming off a season in which he just put up video game output, throwing for 11.7 Y/A with 40 touchdowns to just four interceptions through the air to go along with those gaudy rushing stats we highlighted.
From a final-season perspective, Daniels was in the 99th percentile in yards per pass attempt, 96th percentile in TD-to-INT rate, and 96th percentile in completion rate.
Those rates propelled him to career marks in the 86th percentile in yards per attempt, 91st percentile in TD-to-INT rate, and 80th percentile in completion rate.
Daniels threw for a class-high 11.2 Y/A on throws that did not come with play action or an RPO.
He had a 73.9% on-target throw rate against the blitz, which was second in the class. He was blitzed on 39.2% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the class.
On throws 10 yards or further downfield, Daniels sported a class-high 68.3% on-target throw rate with an insane 23.8% touchdown rate on those passes. On 122 passes 10-plus yards downfield last season, Daniels threw 29 touchdowns with just one interception.
The question surrounding his enormous 2023 season is how much he was aided by the surrounding scheme and talent paired with his overall collegiate experience of playing in 55 collegiate games.
Daniels had his best season turning 23 years old in season while playing attached to two first-round wide receivers.
You can make the chicken or the egg case for those wideouts being attached to Daniels, but I have a ton of confidence that Malik Nabers is the real thing.
Just 16.2% of Daniels’ pass attempts in 2023 came against top-25 defenses. Willams was at 35.4%.
When I look at Daniels from a top-down lens, I see a lot of similarities with Justin Fields exiting Ohio State.
Fields was a player who had superb passing efficiency in college that he was unable to match once removed from playing in prestige conditions.
Even with his faults as a passer, Fields lives as a fantasy QB1 through his front-end rushing output. He pushes to be the QB1 in any given week in which the passing output goes along for the ride.
But his shortcomings as a passer also prevent him from carrying premier stability in getting there weekly.
Like Fields, Daniels has struggled in the quick game and taking sacks when sped up.
Daniels took a sack on 22.0% of his pressures in 2023. Fields took a sack on 21.2% of his pressures exiting Ohio State.
Since entering the NFL, no quarterback has been sacked on a higher rate of pressures than Fields has (28.3%).
While Daniels is an elite rusher, he also was sacked on a class-high 18.8% of the time outside of the pocket.
Despite having a monster 2023 season in the efficiency department, Daniels was second to last in this draft class in on-target rate (60.5%) in the red zone with a 6.1% sack rate (ninth) in that area of the field.
That is not a complete negative, especially from an immediate fantasy stance. But it could impact his second contract in a way that it did Fields, which is why I will be slightly more cautious on Daniels from a dynasty stance versus being bullish on his current ADP of QB18 in early 2024 drafts.
Working with Kliff Kingsbury as a rookie in 2019, Kyler Murray was the QB8 in overall scoring and the QB12 in points per game.
You can make a case that Daniels provides a higher floor of rushing.
Murray ran 93 times for 544 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie.
As a passer, Murray was throwing to 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerald as his lead wideout.
Washington has more initially on the table for Daniels to distribute passes to, with Terry McLaurin, and Jahan Dotson as wideouts, and having veteran safety valves in Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz.
Looking at current costs in 2024 drafts, I would take a swing on the ceiling outcome for Daniels before settling for pass-only options such as Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford, who can be arbitraged with other passers or a QB platoon if Daniels is a failed draft pick early in the season.
Patriots Stay Put, Select Drake Maye
Maye is 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds attached to a howitzer.
He can also move.
You will see a few Josh Allen comparisons thrown his way, but I see Maye more on the Jordan Love spectrum in the NFL.
Maye is a cleaner prospect than Love was, but he is more of a wild card for fantasy output than the first two quarterbacks selected.
Maye exits college in the 85th percentile in career touchdown-to-interception rate (3.9:1) but sits in the 73rd percentile in career yards per pass attempt (8.4 Y/A) and 71st percentile in completion rate (64.9%).
What drags down Maye compared to the first two passers is that his final season was not nearly as strong.
From a final-year perspective, Maye was only in the 62nd percentile in yards per attempt (8.5 Y/A), the 45th percentile in completion rate (63.0%), and the 41st percentile in touchdown-to-interception rate (2.7:1).
Maye’s 66.5% on-target rate in 2023 ranked ahead of Devin Leary (66.4%) in this draft class.
Maye only posted an on-target rate of 69.8% from a clean pocket, which was also the second-lowest rate in this class.
He was also dead last in on-target rate (65.1%) from inside of the pocket.
Maye was hurt by his desire to push the rock down the field.
No quarterback in this class averaged more air yards per throw than Maye in 2023 (10.7 yards).
On those passes, his 49.4% on-target rate was also the second-lowest rate in this class.
Those wonky rates are why I use the Love comparison.
There are a lot of NFL and Dynasty teams that would like a redo on taking a chance on Love at this point, so there is still upside on the table here Maye.
Maye will turn just 22 years old this August and only has 26 career starts under his resume.
Those starts did not come attached to Lincoln Riley or the team LSU put on the field last year for the players we have covered so far.
In his two seasons starting at North Carolina, Maye also rushed for 1,209 yards and 16 touchdowns.
What I do believe will be different from Maye in the NFL versus Caleb Williams is the designed runs called for each.
41.4% of Maye’s rushes in 2023 were outright scrambles, which was more than Jayden Daniels (40.7%) and Williams (33.3%).
That number will likely decrease in the NFL while the other two quarterbacks get their number called more on designed runs.
Someone such as Love had more runway than Maye will be given in the NFL based on expected draft capital, and this landing spot in New England does take some initial work compared to the first two landing spots in this class.
This is a team that has major needs at left tackle on the offensive line and at wide receiver, the two best friends for a quarterback.
We will see what the Patriots do over the remainder of the draft, but this is an offense that needs to invest in weapons and protection for Maye.
We are in what seems like a never-ending cycle of New England chasing their tail at the wide receiver position.
This team once again received basement-level production from their receivers in 2023.
New England wideouts combined to catch 175 passes (25th) for 1,909 yards (29th), and just five touchdowns (31st).
Only Carolina wide receivers averaged fewer yards per reception (10.3 yards) than New England receivers (10.9).
New England has not had a 1,000-yard receiver since Julian Edelman in 2019, which is also the last time any of their wideouts have even reached 900 yards receiving in a season.
This unit badly needs a field stretcher, especially now that they are adding a passer who inherently wants to be aggressive downfield.
In Dynasty, Maye is in a QB2 zone that can flirt with QB1 output when this offense adds more around him, below the options of a similar archetype that we have already seen hit such QB1 seasons in Trevor Lawrence and Love.
From a 2024 redraft stance, the current New England offense does not provide a ton of confidence in having Maye as more than a QB2 flier.
To compound immediate concerns, the Patriots also have our second-hardest projected schedule for 2024.
Cardinals Get Much-Needed Receiver Help, Select Marvin Harrison Jr.
Coming from premier NFL bloodlines at the position, Harrison Jr. posted back-to-back monster seasons at Ohio State, going for 1,295 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2022 and then coming back for 1,237 yards and 15 touchdowns this past season when he was the Biletnikoff Award Winner and a Heisman finalist.
Harrison accounted for 30.0% of the Ohio State targets (WR4 in this class among D1 players), 41.2% of their air yards (WR3), and 53.9% of their receiving touchdowns (WR1).
His 3.44 yards per route run were second to only Malik Nabers while his 2.99 yards per team pass attempt ranked fifth.
Harrison was one of just five prospects in this draft class to average over 3.0 yards per route run against both man coverage (3.03) and zone coverage (3.51).
When defenses did play man coverage against Ohio State this season, Harrison was targeted on 40.0% of his routes, which was the highest rate in this class.
20.0% of Harrison’s career receptions were touchdowns, the highest rate in this class.
What is noteworthy about Harrison is that he came back and posted all of that efficiency after C.J. Stroud left.
While the Buckeyes have been on a strong of putting quarterbacks in the first round of the NFL Draft, Harrison was excellent playing attached to Kyle McCord.
McCord ranked 62nd in passing grade at Pro Football Focus in 2023 and transferred to Syracuse this spring when he was not guaranteed the starting gig in 2024.
Among the top three wideouts in this class, the other two wideouts in this tier fared far better in quarterback attachment this past season as Jayden Daniels was third in passing grade and Michael Penix was ninth.
Harrison also has next to zero manufactured production in his profile.
Only 7.0% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage (26th in this class).
Among landing spots for the top receivers in this class, going to Arizona provides an immediate pipeline for targets coming from a viable quarterback.
A major problem area for this offense, Arizona wide receivers were 30th in the NFL in receptions (157), 30th in receiving yards (1,790), and tied for 23rd with 10 touchdowns in 2023.
Arizona wideouts combined for 11.4 yards per reception (27th) and a 56.7% catch rate (30th).
As a unit, their 1.39 yards per route run ranked ahead of only the Patriots (1.36) and Jets (1.27).
With Kyler Murray back in Weeks 10-18, Greg Dortch led the wide receiver group with only 278 yards.
Harrison immediately vaults up to WR1 status in Dynasty formats and is the top fantasy wideout in this rookie class.
Admittedly, his current redraft ADP at WR9 is rich.
There is not a ton of upside at that cost while we are counting on him delivering at that capital with next to zero margin for error.
While I am not going to be overly aggressive at those costs, Harrison does make Murray more attractive at his QB10 cost.
It is not a coincidence that Murray’s best stretch in the NFL as a passer was playing attached to a healthy DeAndre Hopkins.
Hopkins was targeted on 23.4% of his routes with Arizona and Murray on the field, the highest rate for any player who has run 100 or more routes playing with Murray.
Giants Pass on Quarterback, Select Malik Nabers
Nabers and Harrison are extremely close and both elite prospects.
Nabers does not have multiple elite collegiate seasons (his 2022 was good but not as great) as Harrison does, but he is right in line with him in immediate projection.
If you look at the top receivers in production (which leads to fantasy points), we are no longer seeing the prototypical X receiver from yesterday at the front of the leaderboards.
We are seeing players that can win everywhere in all alignments.
Defenses are playing man coverage at an all-time low paired with more two-high coverage.
NFL offenses are forced to attack the middle of the field more than ever with the current approach to the game.
Unsurprisingly, we see guys like CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill crushing.
Harrison might be able to win inside in the NFL, but he does take projection whereas Nabers did a lot of everything in the LSU offense.
From a top-down perspective, Nabers averaged a class-high 3.64 yards per route run and 3.81 yards per team pass attempt.
Nabers was second in this class among D1 prospects in target share (32.5%) and third in the share of receptions (31.1%) while playing alongside another wide receiver projected to be selected in the first round of this draft.
Nabers forced a missed tackle on 33.7% of his receptions (second in this class) while averaging 6.6 yards after the catch per reception (WR9).
He ran 52.9% of his routes from the slot, where he caught a class-high 12 touchdowns and averaged 4.35 yards per route run (third in this class).
He averaged 3.22 yards per route run against man coverage (WR7) and a class-high 4.42 yards per route against zone coverage.
Although Nabers did have access to more slot routes in college than Harrison did, do not make the mistake of thinking he was stacking output on free squares.
He only had 14 targets on screens. That 10.9% share of his season total was WR19 in this class.
Nabers had nine touchdowns on throws over 20 yards downfield, which was second in this class behind teammate Brian Thomas.
To top that all off, Nabers is the youngest wide receiver available in the draft.
He will not turn 21 years old until late July.
Nabers can immediately stack targets in a Giants offense lacking a receiver that commands targets.
This wide receiver unit was once again at the bottom of the league in terms of output in 2023.
New York wideouts combined for 184 receptions (22nd) for 2,059 yards (28th) and nine touchdowns (tied for 27th).
Their collective 11.2 yards per catch ranked 29th.
Darius Slayton led the team in receiving yards (770) for the second straight season.
He has led the team in receiving yards now in four of his five NFL seasons despite never reaching 800 yards in any of those seasons.
Now, Nabers does have to work with Daniel Jones while Harrison gets attached to a passer we have seen feed a WR1.
To at least give Jones some benefit of the doubt, Nabers is the best wide receiver that he has played with by a wide margin.
Sterling Shepard has the highest yards per route run (1.66) among players Jones has played with over his career in New York.
At worst, Jones is in play to have more upside than his current QB31, which will climb now that his job is apparently safe.
For Dynasty, his attachment to Jones could be short-lived and fluid. I am not going to punish Nabers greatly even if his 2024 output comes alongside Jones.
Jones also can be nursed by Brian Daboll, someone I believe can create opportunities for Nabers.
While Harrison is already expensive at WR9 in current drafts for 2024, Nabers is at WR18.
Still, that is an area where guys like DeVonta Smith, Michael Pittman, DK Metcalf, and Cooper Kupp are going.
Those are all established players I would be on before Nabers in a vacuum in 2024, but those are also all players (outside of Kupp) who have struggled to retain a high weekly ceiling, keeping the price tag more palatable for Nabers.
Falcons Shock the World, Select Michael Penix Jr.
In our first surprise of the draft, the Falcons were hyper-aggressive in nabbing Michael Penix even after shelling out a huge contract to Kirk Cousins to open free agency.
The only quarterbacks selected in Round 1 in the 2000s and older than Penix were Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, and Carson Palmer.
He is only a few weeks younger than Bo Nix, who went a few picks later.
Penix played six collegiate seasons.
But unlike Nix, Penix suffered a multitude of injuries along the way.
Before the 2022 season in transferring to Washington, Penix had not played in more than seven games in any of his four seasons at Indiana.
He tore his ACL in 2018 as a freshman and then dislocated his shoulder in 2019 after Indiana opened the season 7-2.
In 2020, Penix opened the COVID-shortened season with 14 touchdown passes through five games, including throwing for 342 yards against Michigan and 491 yards against Ohio State.
He then tore his same right ACL again in late November the following week after the Ohio State game.
He got off to a rocky start in 2021 before suffering a dislocated shoulder in his throwing arm.
Cleaning the slate, Penix transferred to Washington, where he flourished.
Penix threw for 31 and 36 touchdowns the past two seasons while averaging 8.4 and 8.8 yards per pass attempt.
While Penix did post solid counting stats, his underlying metrics were not as strong as Nix's since he threw more interceptions, averaged fewer yards per pass attempt, and completed a lower rate of passes.
He ended 2023 with a final-season yards per pass attempt (8.8 Y/A) in the 73rd percentile for prospects in their final season while closing in the 55th percentile in touchdown-to-interception rate (3.3:1) and the 63rd percentile in completion rate (65.4%).
Those injuries could have been more limiting than he would have been as a runner, but Penix only rushed for 100 total yards the past two seasons.
Some of that was climate-controlled in the same vein as why C.J. Stroud did not run a lot at Ohio State.
Penix simply did not have to run a lot while he played with a great receiving corps. But two ACL injuries are definitely in play for taking something away here.
I do believe Penix will run a lot more in the NFL than he did in college, but this is also a quarterback who played in structure and struggled to create passing production out of it.
Penix threw for just 4.2 yards per pass attempt outside of the pocket in 2023, which ranked ahead of only Kedon Slovis in this class.
In the pocket, Penix averaged 9.4 Y/A, fourth in this class.
His on-target rate when he was pressured (53.4%) was 10th in this class. He went from 9.5 Y/A when kept clean down to 7.0 Y/A when pressured.
On non-play-action or RPO passes, Penix was 10th in this class with 7.9 Y/A while ranking second in the number of those throws.
Not only did Penix have some hiccups when pressured, but Penix also had issues in the money situations for quarterbacks.
His 66.1% on-target rate in the red zone was 10th in this class with a 7.0% sack rate (11th).
On third and fourth downs, Penix was 11th in this class with 6.7 Y/A.
Like Palmer, Penix is not a bet to start his rookie season, which makes this addition a curious one given his age and how the NFL currently operates. And it may not be until after 2025.
Cousins will be 36, but the Falcons can not get out of his current contract without a significant dead cap hit until after the 2025 season.
For Dynasty, I am hesitant to invest in Penix, even with his draft capital.
What happens with him in SuperFlex leagues will be something to monitor. He will have to slide.
On a positive outlook, if Penix can start sooner than later, this Atlanta offense is primed with young talent.
Bears Add Rome Odunze to Help Caleb Williams
In several previous seasons, Odunze would have been the clear WR1 in the class.
Odunze got better all four years at Washington, capped by a 2023 season in which he caught 92 balls for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns, adding a rushing score for good measure.
Odunze’s 81.8 receiving yards per game over his college career rank first in this draft class among Division 1 prospects.
He played alongside two other wide receivers projected to be selected in this draft, still accounting for 26.2% of his team targets (WR8).
His 2.85 yards per team pass attempt was seventh in this draft class.
Odunze shredded man coverage for 3.75 yards per route run (third in this class) paired with 2.93 yards per route against zone (WR10).
Odunze can get open on his route-running ability, but he dominated when asked to win in contested situations despite not being forced to live on contested catches alone.
20.0% of his targets were contested catches in 2023, below the 26.3% rate for Harrison and above Nabers (17.2%).
On those contested targets, Odunze caught a staggering 21-of-28 (75.0%).
35.0% of Odunze’s targets came on throws 20 or more yards downfield, which was the fourth-highest rate in this class.
He had 15 more downfield targets than the next closest wide receiver in this class.
He played in the slot at a lower rate of his routes (17.5%) than both Harrison and Nabers did in college, but Odunze had more created production despite winning downfield more than the others.
19.6% of his receptions were screens compared to 15.7% for Nabers and 11.9% for Harrison.
Despite that, only 31.4% of Odunze’s yards came after the catch compared to 35.3% for Harrison and 37.6% for Nabers because he drew so many downfield targets.
His 2.58 yards per route run from the slot (WR14 in this class) were far off from the destruction that both Harrison (5.22 YRR) and Nabers (4.35 YRR) posted when given those opportunities.
All of that put together puts Odunze in a bucket of having more projection in winning everywhere in the NFL than the previous two, but he has true spades to start with.
While both Harrison and Nabers will be tasked with carrying their wideout rooms as rookies, Odunze is allowed to work downfield out of the box playing alongside D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen.
While that may cap his 2024 target share, Allen is 32 and only signed for this upcoming season.
From a Dynasty stance, though, Odunze still will have to compete with Moore for alpha targets.
We have seen players such as DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle play in that WR1B and WR2 role in their offenses and struggle to consistently operate as fantasy football WR1s.
That bucket of wideouts is where Odunze is going to sit behind to open his Dynasty stock.
From a redraft stance, he is more of a contingency bet than someone to lock into.
We will see where his ADP settles, but he will have to be discounted in redraft leagues from his initial ADP this spring.
Vikings Get Their Guy, Trade Up for J.J. McCarthy
McCarthy was perhaps the most polarizing quarterback of the top prospects in this class.
He is the youngest player at the position, turning 21 just this past January.
The top-down thing with McCarthy is centered around the conditions he was placed in.
He is viewed by some as a caretaker as we have seen quarterbacks in this offensive system attached to Jim Harbaugh have efficiency-based results that do not always match the overall perception of the player.
With McCarthy going in the first round, the only other quarterbacks selected in the first round since 2000 with fewer final season pass attempts per game than McCarthy (22.1) are Jason Campbell (20.8), Cam Newton (20.0), Trey Lance (17.9), and Michael Vick (16.1).
All of those guys were limited in passing volume because of how good they were on the ground.
But McCarthy’s low-passing volume can easily be explained outside of the normal Harbaugh stigma.
Michigan lost one game with McCarthy as their starter over the past two seasons.
Not only that, but they also trailed at halftime just three times, and just once in 2023 did they trail at half. They led by double-digit points at the half in nine of their games.
Blowing out many teams, McCarthy threw 34 total passes in the fourth quarter this season. He did not even play in seven different fourth quarters this past season.
Interestingly enough, the things we do know about McCarthy’s output could be the most tangible since he does not have empty-calorie inflation anchoring his production.
65.1% of McCarthy’s pass attempts this season came in the first half of games, the highest rate of this draft class.
On those throws, he was third in completion rate (73.1%), fifth in on-target rate (75.1%), and fifth in yards per pass attempt (9.2 Y/A).
On third and fourth downs, McCarthy completed 71.3% of his passes (second) with 9.3 yards per pass attempt (second).
He also attempted a class-high 49.7% of his passes against top-25 defenses.
McCarthy also averaged a class-high 10.1 Y/A when pressured in 2023.
It is okay not to jump all in on McCarthy and question what his rate stats look like with increased passing volume, but we do have to draw the line that he was not trusted to throw the football as a lot of his depressed volume was circumstantial on top of the inherent attachment to Harbaugh.
McCarthy has a sprinkle of mobility as well.
He rushed for 632 yards and 10 touchdowns at Michigan.
He did not have to scramble a lot given his environment, giving him a 35.9% rate of designed runs on his ledger. Only Jayden Daniels (258) and Joe Milton (187) had more rushing yards than McCarthy (166) on designed runs in 2023.
That said, his overall rushing still likely falls in the Justin Herbert-Trevor Lawrence range.
I am more open to the pro side of the coin of McCarthy, but the question remains in what we are getting for fantasy.
Can he be a quarterback who regularly can push to be a weekly QB1?
If his rushing falls in the area of those two passers, he will have to be someone who regularly flirts with 35-plus passing touchdowns to get to those levels.
In the majority of outcomes, I see McCarthy maxing out as someone who moonlights as a fantasy QB1.
The good news is that I believe this landing spot potentially maxes McCarthy out.
He is opening his career with Kevin O’Connell, Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison.
With that, you can make a strong case for McCarthy as QB3 in this rookie class for fantasy behind Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, using that landing spot to jump him over Drake Maye.
Broncos Reach for Bo Nix
The unique circumstances through COVID and the new transfer rules allowed Nix to develop and max out his collegiate career with a massive season at Oregon.
He closed his career out ranking in the 91st percentile in final season yards per pass attempt (9.6 Y/A) and in the 99th percentile in touchdown-to-interception rate (15.0:1) and the 99th percentile in completion rate (77.4%).
Nix has a 98th-percentile final-season production score in my prospect model but also has just a 60th-percentile career production score.
Nix is a rare five-year starter, appearing in 61 games.
The only other quarterbacks selected in the first round in the 2000s with more than 50 appearances were Carson Palmer (53) and Kenny Pickett (52).
What makes it even harder is that perhaps no quarterback we have covered so far had as optimal playing conditions as Nix had in 2023.
He played behind the highest-graded pass-blocking offensive line in college per Pro Football Focus.
Nix was pressured on just 16.1% of his dropbacks, the only quarterback in this class under 20%.
He was pressured on just 28.6% of his blitzed dropbacks, also the lowest rate.
He averaged only 6.3 air yards per pass attempt, the fewest in this draft class. The next closest was a full yard over him at 7.4 yards downfield.
67.0% of his passes were credited as thrown to open receivers per Pro Football Focus, the highest rate in this class.
Nix threw 60.1% of his passes in under 2.5 seconds, the highest rate in this class. There was just one other prospect here that was over 50%, and that was Western Kentucky’s Austin Reed (54.2%).
All of that makes it hard to accurately judge Nix’s 2023 as development or something anchored by unique circumstances and environment.
His NFL environment will immediately illuminate things.
Nix should jump Zach Wilson, Jarrett Stidham, and Ben DiNucci right away, but this Denver roster is currently in rough shape.
Their running backs combined to rush for 4.1 YPC (20th in the league) with a 34.0% success rate (24th) in 2023.
Denver wide receivers combined for 167 receptions (27th) for 2,353 yards (22nd) in 2023.
That said, we do not have to completely run and hide here if Nix does draw an opportunity to start for someone in 2024.
We should at least see Nix alter their offensive approach.
Denver wideouts lived on the long ball in 2023.
Their 23.3% target rate on throws 20 or more yards downfield was second in the NFL while their 21.8% deep route rate was also second.
If looking through the pro side of things for Nix, he is still a former five-star recruit who improved his yards per pass attempt in every season in college.
When tasked to push the football downfield, he did excel.
Nix had an on-target rate of 65.6% on throws 10 yards or further, which was second in this class. His 17.9% touchdown rate on those throws was also second.
On throws 10 yards or further and outside of the numbers, Nix was second in the class with an on-target rate of 61.8%.
He has enough ability to escape pressure and create with his legs.
Nix rushed for 38 touchdowns over his five seasons, averaging 26.4 yards on the ground per game for his career.
For starting projection, Nix is going to have initial value in SuperFlex leagues.
In 1QB formats, it is hard to get overly aggressive with his profile as more than a QB2 who can offer spots of QB1 output.
Michael Mayer Who? Raiders Draft Brock Bowers
Bowers was the top tight end in this class by a wide chasm.
As the only two-time John Mackey Award winner since the title was awarded in 2000, Bowers led this draft class in career receptions (4.4) and receiving yards (63.5) per game while catching a class-high 26 touchdown passes over three seasons at Georgia.
For good measure, Bowers also rushed 19 times for 193 yards and another five touchdowns.
He is also the second-youngest tight end that was invited to the combine. Bowers will not turn 22 years old until December of his rookie season.
From an age-adjusted production stance, only Kyle Pitts has a higher career production score than Bowers has in my prospect model for all tight ends going back to 2000.
Perhaps the largest feather in the cap for Bowers is that he led Georgia in receiving yards in each of the past three seasons.
For added context, as a freshman, Bowers posted 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns while Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey (two of the wide receivers receiving the most post-Combine hype in this class) combined for 873 yards and nine touchdowns.
There were some early whispers that Bowers was perhaps too much of a tweener to find a full-time home at the NFL level.
He played in-line for just 38.8% of his snaps in 2023 per Pro Football Focus, which was ahead of only Dallin Holker (26.2%) in this draft class.
But checking in at 6-foot-3 and 243 pounds, Bowers is right in line with someone such as Sam LaPorta (6-foot-3 and 245 pounds) was a year ago at the combine.
Bowers may not be George Kittle in the run game, but his ability to move with the football is unmatched in this draft class while groomed in the nuances that come with playing the position at the next level.
In 2023, Bowers accumulated 486 yards after the catch, which led all tight ends in this draft class.
That mark also ranks 10th in this draft class among wide receivers.
67.8% of the receiving yards that Bowers posted in 2023 came after the catch, which was third in this draft class among all tight ends and wide receivers.
Bowers forced 18 missed tackles last season per Sports Info Solutions, which led all tight ends in this draft class and ranked fifth among wide receivers.
This past season, 40.9% of Bowers’ targets were screen passes, which led all tight ends in this class by a significant margin.
29 of his 56 total receptions (51.8%) came on screen passes, which trailed only Malachi Corley (53.2%) among all tight ends and wide receivers in this class.
Bowers totaled 27 targets behind the line of scrimmage (38.0%) while the next closest tight end in this draft class had 14.
That said, the current NFL has seen an increase in the use of zone coverage from the season prior in each of the past four seasons. In 2023, NFL defenses ran zone coverage on 71.6% of all passing plays, the highest rate that TruMedia has recorded in a season.
But with his current game already showcasing spades that are best equipped for what he will face at the NFL level out of the packaging, any concern that he was not tested in route nuance in beating NFL defenders is reduced.
There will be a level of anticipation of rational coaching for whatever team selects Bowers.
My initial thoughts are to be hesitant that will be the case attached to Antonio Pierce in this offensive environment in Las Vegas.
In the half-season sample with what we saw from Pierce, we know what he is out to do.
Over their games under Pierce, the Raiders posted a 47.9% dropback rate when leading on the scoreboard, which was 29th in the league.
When trailing, that rate spiked up to 64.6%, which was 18th in the league.
Aidan O’Connell ended his rookie experience completing 62.1% of his passes (27th among qualifying passers) for 6.5 yards per pass attempt (25th).
He threw 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions, finishing 23rd in EPA per dropback (-0.04) and 25th in success rate (39.6%).
Gardner Minshew ended the 2023 season starting a career-high 13 games for the Colts, going 7-6 with one of his wins coming against the Raiders.
Minshew completed 62.2% of his passes (26th) for 6.7 Y/A (23rd), closing the season 18th in EPA per dropback (-0.01) and 27th in success rate (39.2%) among the 32 passers that qualified for the league’s passer rating.
Since Minshew entered the league in 2019, he ranks 34th in success rate per dropback, right behind Mac Jones and right ahead of Desmond Ridder.
When you are selecting a “onesie” position with premier rookie capital, your margin for missing is razor thin.
Bowers is going to be expensive and you will be counting on him to produce an outcome that potentially rivals the TE1 overall in any given season.
As was the case with Kyle Pitts, that could be a path we have to kick down the road for Bowers.
The good news is that the target tree in Vegas is still relatively thin behind Davante Adams, who will turn 32 this December.
The Raiders also selected Michael Mayer at N0. 35 overall last season, but Mayer failed to match the production of other rookie tight ends in 2023.
Mayer only ran a pass route on 44.9% of the Raider dropbacks, which was fourth among rookie tight ends.
His 1.12 yards per route run ranked sixth among rookies while his 14.8% target rate per route run was fifth.
Mayer was one of the most decorated pass catchers at his position leaving Notre Dame.
Bowers can do more on his own in an offense outside of relying on everything to go right such as Mayer, but I will likely be lower than the field on Bowers given his fantasy position being one I am cautious overly spending on paired with his landing spot.
Jaguars Trade Up For Brian Thomas Jr.
After catching 59 passes for 720 yards and seven touchdowns over his first two seasons at LSU, Thomas erupted in 2023 with 68 receptions for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Stuck behind Kayshon Boutte for those opening two seasons, Thomas is leaning on his gaudy 2023 campaign to carry his production profile.
53.5% of his catches, 62.1% of his yards, and 70.8% of his touchdowns came in his final season, rates that rank fourth, second, and second in this class.
With just one monster season on his resume, Thomas does draw some odder comparables as his top hits. Players such as Torrey Smith, Freddie Mitchell, and Jameson Williams are at the top of his hit list.
Thomas played with the Heisman Winner and alongside an all-world wideout that allowed Thomas to excel, which does at least place some trepidation that his 2023 was lightning in a bottle.
Nabers took all of the creative usage in this offense last season, which allowed Thomas to eat on the outside and downfield.
Thomas was only targeted on 19.3% of his routes, which was 34th in this draft class.
Only 13.3% of the routes that Thomas ran came from the slot, 30th in this class.
68.2% of the receptions Thomas had were on throws 20 or more yards downfield, fourth in this class.
He led all of college football with 12 touchdowns on throws.
He also led all of college football last season in yardage (577) and touchdowns (13) gained on only go, post, and fade routes per Sports Into Solutions.
We are still looking for more body of work that Thomas can win everywhere on the field, and his fit with the Jaguars does have some overlap with where Gabe Davis is successful, who was added in free agency.
That said, Thomas offers that upside of being a full-field wide receiver that could have just been road-blocked from those opportunities by Nabers in college.
Calvin Ridley accounted for 22.4% of the Jacksonville targets with a target on 21.2% of his routes run.
Davis has never been a major target earner to that degree, which we are hoping Thomas shows.
Over his first four seasons in the NFL, Davis has been targeted on 13.4%, 18.7%, 16.0%, and 14.6% of his routes.
In 2023, Ridley accounted for a league-high 41.3% of the Jacksonville red zone targets.
Ridley had a league-high 52.2% of the team targets that went into the end zone as an extension of those targets.
Thomas draws an attachment to Trevor Lawrence, giving him a larger dynasty runway that can open up if the team loses Zay Jones or Christian Kirk in upcoming seasons.
While the Jacksonville wide receiver does appear crowded for 2024 (without even accounting for the target share that Evan Engram has), Thomas does have the avenue for talent to win out in the big picture. None of these other wideouts are alpha wide receivers in the league.
For his 2024 redraft value, Thomas will be an upside bench stash, carrying his largest appeal in best ball formats.
Chiefs Give Patrick Mahomes Another Weapon, Draft Xavier Worthy
Worthy hit the ground running at Texas.
As an 18-year-old freshman in 2021, Worthy caught 62 passes for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns.
He caught at least 60 passes in all three seasons in college, His 5.1 receptions per game over his career rank sixth in this class.
Worthy did give up some ground in 2023 with Adonai Mitchell joining the team as his only production wart.
His 2.14 yards per route run in 2023 rank 28th in this class.
He scored fewer touchdowns than the season prior in all three years at Texas. His breakout score is one of the best in this class, but his final season production score is one of the weakest.
A few other college prospects who had similar drop-offs in the discrepancy between entry and exit are Jalen Reagor and Marqise Lee, players with similar draft capital that is projected for Worthy.
And no player helped himself more than Worthy at the NFL Combine, who ran a 4.21 time in the 4-yard dash, the fastest time for a wide receiver ever.
The NFL has shown that they will draft speed.
And even as someone who likes the context of what speed score provides, 4.21 is still 4.21.
The other wideouts that have run sub 4.30 times in the forty at the combine in the 2000s are John Ross, Jacoby Ford, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Marquise Goodwin, Henry Ruggs, Stephen Hill, Tyquan Thornton, Trindon Holliday, J.J. Nelson, Stephen Hill, Johnny Knox, and Mike Wallace.
We are working with one player hitting from that group in Wallace.
To give Worthy some credit, most of those players had next to no college production, they were just fast.
Ross was the lone wideout here with decorated production coming into the league.
Worthy also backed up that juice in straight-line speed by posting a 95th percentile explosion score, posting a 41-inch vertical and a 10-foot-11-inch broad jump.
We know we are working with an explosive player.
What hurts Worthy overall, though, is banking on his physical profile outside of his speed.
He is small at 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds.
Worthy did average 16.9 yards per punt return this past season but lacks the rushing profile out of college that we saw in someone like Tyreek Hill, who would be the pie-in-the-sky, hopium-fueled comparison here.
Going to the Chiefs will not slow down those hopes.
Worthy’s 31 1/8-inch arms are in the 21st percentile at the position while his 8-3/4-inch hands are in the sixth percentile.
This shows up in his on-field results as Worthy only pulled in 5-of-21 contested catches (23.8%) in 2023, which ranked 31st in this draft class.
He also only converted 1-of-11 red zone targets for touchdowns.
34.7% of Worthy’s 2023 receptions were screen passes, which was seventh in this class.
The hope is that with his speed and paired with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, Worthy will not have to live in that capacity at the next level.
That said, the Chiefs have not exactly been bulletproof in selecting wide receivers.
Gamers over-drafted both Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore in rookie drafts before hitting on Rashee Rice.
Where Worthy won in college is more of an overlap with where Rice won as a rookie in the NFL.
70.8% of Rice’s rookie receiving yards came after the catch, the highest rate among qualifying wide receivers.
Rice only averaged 4.6 air yards per target, ahead of only Parris Campbell and Kadarius Toney.
83.7% of his targets as a rookie were fewer than 10 yards downfield, which led the league.
Still, this was as good of a landing spot as gamers could hope for because of the overall upside and attachment to Mahomes.
For 2024, you do not have to squint much to see Worthy having a runway to outproduce every other wideout after Marvin Harrison Jr. in their rookie season given the immediate questions surrounding the other wideouts paired with Worthy’s opportunity in Kansas City.
I will value Worthy’s upside more in re-draft formats, but any time the best player in the NFL gets an added weapon with draft capital, there is inherent upside playing for the ceiling outcome.
This is also a potential big development for Mahomes quickly rebounding after a “down” season for his standards in the efficiency department.
The Chiefs have upgraded their wide receiver room, looking at all of Rice, Worthy, and Marquise Brown at the front of the position paired with Travis Kelce.
Mahomes threw a career-high 14 interceptions while posting career-lows in touchdown rate (4.5%), yards per pass attempt (7.0 Y/A), yards per completion (10.4), and passing yards per game (261.4).
He closed the season 10th in EPA per dropback (0.07) and 10th in success rate (45.2%).
On throws 10 yards or further downfield, Mahomes was 28th in the NFL in rating (65.1).
He completed just 45.8% of those passes with two touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Amid Brandon Aiyuk Rumors, 49ers Select Ricky Pearsall in First Round
The selection of Ricky Pearsall at the end of Round 1 did nothing to fan the flames surrounding the 49ers potentially trading away one of Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk at some point this offseason.
Pearsall was a popular player among both scouting and evidence-based analysts.
He did not have a massively glowing production profile, but solid underlying output that makes him more appealing than the first impression his counting stats provide.
After three years at Arizona State, Pearsall transferred to Florida where he led the team in receiving yardage in each of the past two seasons.
Yes, his 661 yards in 2022 led the team because of the limitations that the passing game had.
But Pearsall still averaged a robust 20.0 yards per grab in that 2022 season playing with Anthony Richardson.
His 80.4 receiving yards per game this past season were 18th in this class, but his 30.9% share of Florida receiving yards was ninth, providing added context to some of the top-down passing games he was a part of.
Pearsall was 12th in this class in yards per team pass attempt (2.44) in 2023 despite ranking 27th in yards per route run (2.23).
Overall, Pearsall lacks a rock-solid production profile, but it feels very similar to Jayden Reed from a year ago when he just appeared a lot better than his environment.
Like Reed, Pearsall has a wide range of usage on top of being a receiver.
He returned punts in 2023.
He rushed for 253 yards and five touchdowns over his college career.
Perhaps if you squint, you can talk yourself into that profile being something that could make up for the potential loss of Samuel, if the team did opt to move him.
But I am always cautious comparing anyone to Samuel, who is a one-of-one player, in my opinion.
When tasked to punch up, Pearsall had the most receiving yards (99) allowed in a game by Georgia this past season.
Pearsall can win in the slot right away in the NFL.
He ran 56.3% of his routes from the slot in 2023, where he caught 66.2% of his receptions and posted 58.1% of his receiving yards. Those rates were 10th and 15th in this class.
At the NFL Combine, Pearsall checked in similarly to Ladd McConkey.
At 6-foot-1 and 189 pounds, Pearsall ran a 4.41 40-yard dash while posting a 93rd explosion score and an 89th percentile agility score.
Like McConkey, Pearsall also has a smaller build.
His 30 7/8-inch arms are in the 18th percentile for his position, while his 9 1/4-inch hands are 24th percentile.
The question for Pearsall is is he going to be more than a slot receiver because this offense has not utilized that type of player under Kyle Shanahan.
Since Shanahan joined the 49ers in 2017, the 49ers are 31st in the NFL in use of 11 personnel at 42.8%.
Only the Ravens are lower over that span (40.5%).
Pearsall has to answer those questions.
He was only targeted on 21.7% of his routes against man coverage (WR24 in this class) while his 2.28 yards per route run ranked 18th.
Pearsall also was targeted on just 16.9% of his routes when lined up as an isolated receiver per SiS. Those routes only made up 15.0% of his opportunities, but it was the lowest target per route rate as an isolated receiver in this class.
As a fan of Pearsall’s pre-draft, I do believe there is a good shot that he will end up as a potential trap now in rookie drafts based on his draft investment and landing spot.
Even with those questions, it is hard not to be optimistic about a player landing with Shanahan and this offense, but as is the case with all of the 49ers' passing-game assets, they do tend to cannibalize each other on a weekly level, with all of them forced to live on extreme efficiency over volume.
Panthers Trade Into First Round for Xavier Legette
The Panthers traded back into the final spot of the first round to grab another wide receiver in Xavier Legette.
Legette is far from a complete product, which is what makes their aggressiveness in acquiring him intriguing.
The first thing is that Legette was a major fifth-year breakout.
He had 71 catches for 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns in 2023 after catching only 42 passes for 423 yards and five touchdowns over his first four seasons at South Carolina.
We have to be honest and question that if it were not for the added eligibility based on COVID, would Legette even have been invited to the NFL Combine or on anyone’s radar?
Whereas 62.1% of the yardage that Brian Thomas had in 2023 accounted for his career output, 74.5% of Legette’s 2023 yardage made up his career total.
Thomas did that in his third season at age 20.
Legette was in his fifth year at age 22.
Legette was primarily only a kick returner up until last season, converting from high school quarterback.
His development in college took a weird road as he was primarily only a kick returner up until last season, converting from high school quarterback. Legette was a baseball recruit as well, so we know there is athleticism here.
That showed up in his on-field production, where at times he looked like a D.K. Metcalf-esque clone in the SEC.
Legette showed up at the NFL Combine at 6-foot-1 and 221 pounds. The only other wideout in this class heavier than him was Johhny Wilson.
At that size, Legette ran a 4.39 forty. That was good for a 98th percentile speed score and is fast even without being adjusted for size.
We should expect a player with Legette’s physical profile paired with his age to crush in college to a degree, but he also did, so we should not completely throw it out with the bathwater.
His 3.15 yards per route run was eighth in this class.
Legette accounted for a class-high 44.8% of the South Carolina air yards.
After Dave Canales worked with Mike Evans and DK Metcalf the past two seasons, he may have developed an affection for big-bodied wideouts, but Legette worked better as a slot player than a prototypical X that won on craftsmanship or just using his size.
While his stature would suggest that he just ran by defenders on the perimeter, Legette ran 34.4% of his routes from the slot, where his 3.23 yards per route run was seventh in this class.
His overall size, athletic, and production profile have more upside than other wideouts in this class, but Legette will take continued refinement in the NFL.
He also needs an attachment to good quarterback play more than most in this class.
Of course, that upside is tied into better play from Bryce Young.
TruMedia only has four years’ worth of throwing accuracy data, but Young’s 15.2% inaccurate throw rate is ahead of Zach Wilson (15.4%) and Justin Fields (17.0%) among rookie passers over that span.
Paired with the addition of Diontae Johnson (who has shown he can earn targets), Legette has more questions than answers coming out of the draft for initial fantasy value as a boom-or-bust draft selection.