NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them. Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.
If a wide receiver who was projected for nine points instead earns 22 points, then there is a strong likelihood that his performance came at the detriment of a teammate, or even a member of the opposing team. His running back likely received less opportunity, while the opposing team’s running back may have seen a boost. In this scenario, his quarterback may have also produced well.
The game theory is much more intricate than this one example, but it gets you down the path of thinking of showdown as an if/then rather than a raw projection.
There may be times when Cooper Kupp finishes as the best play of the slate without Matthew Stafford, and other times Jonathan Taylor may rush for 200 yards while Matt Ryan and Michael Pittman still make the optimal lineup. Showdown is non-binary, but over time sound lineup construction will reign supreme.
Most important of all:
The likeliest outcome is only one of infinite outcomes. When rostership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario. The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.
Slate Breakdown
The Washington Commanders are heading to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles as 11-point underdogs. The total is set at 43.5. These double-digit spreads can get tricky for Showdown. On most nights 5-1 lineups are strong, unique builds. On nights like these, they’re slightly more utilized which allows us the freedom to play more even builds without feeling like we’re missing an opportunity. I still like the Eagles onslaught but it’s going to be that much more important to be contrarian. In 5-1 builds we’ll want to include Hurts and boost the Eagles’ defense while adding a Washington pass catcher who would benefit from being blown out.
Injury Notes
J.D. McKissic – Neck – Out
Washington Commanders Offense
Quarterback
Taylor Heinicke: $9,000
In three starts this season, Taylor Heinicke has been a mixed bag as a passer. He flirted with the 300-yard bonus in Week 8 and threw multiple touchdowns in the other two outings. He’s also thrown an interception in each game, which is something we’ll be capitalizing on with the Eagle’s defense. Heinicke has averaged over 30 pass attempts per game and will benefit from attempting to keep up with Jalen Hurts.
Running back
Antonio Gibson: $6,800
Antonio Gibson lost the starting job to Brian Robinson and improved his fantasy production. As with the rest of the 2022 season, not much makes sense. Either way, Gibson is the more expensive back but his salary is warranted due to the absence of J.D. McKissic. Gibson will be the primary passing back, which should be the majority of the game for the Commanders.
Brian Robinson: $5,400
Despite being considered the starter, Robinson is playing fewer and fewer snaps. Two weeks ago he was third in snaps amongst the backs. With McKissic out last week, Robinson managed just 44% of the snaps to Gibson’s 58%. He still carried the ball 13 times and was even targeted twice. Robinson likely needs a touchdown to be viable, but he typically gets the first crack at the goal line.
Receiver
Terry McLaurin: $8,200
Over the past two seasons, Terry McLaurin has found most of his success when Heinecke is starting. He’s averaging just over eight targets per game. He’s found the endzone in one game and hit the 100-yard bonus in another. Given the likelihood of Eagles-heavy builds, McLaurin should have reasonable ownership paired with his high ceiling.
Curtis Samuel: $6,600
Curtis Samuel has been one of fantasy’s biggest surprises thus far. His target share has been unpredictable, but his floor has been consistent. With his unique price tag and wide range of outcomes in terms of opportunity, Samuel will likely go overlooked.
Jahan Dotson: $5,000
Jahan Dotson is making his triumphant return from IR just in time for a tough matchup against the undefeated division rivals. He was off to a solid start with four touchdowns in four games while averaging 5.5 targets. Unfortunately, with the chance of limited snaps, his price tag makes him no more than a pay-up-to-be contrarian punt play.
Logan Thomas: $2,600
In Logan Thomas’ first week back from injury he played 56% of the snaps and was not targeted. Last week he was back to his normal workload with 74% of the snaps and three targets but no receptions. This is a good opportunity to get ahead of the field and assume Thomas gets back to roughly five targets at just $2,600.
Punt Plays
John Bates: $800
John Bates has benefited from missed time from Thomas, but he still managed to play 39% of the snaps. He was targeted twice with Thomas back in his starting role. At less than $1,000 Bates is worth having some exposure to in large field tournaments but Thomas is worth the extra salary in smaller fields.
Cam Sims: $200
If Dotson is limited, Cam Sims will be the primary benefactor. He’s been targeted twice in five of nine games and has played over half the snaps in each game Dotson has missed. At the minimum price, we’re happy to take a guaranteed opportunity in the hopes that Sims can make a play out of it.
Favorite Stack
Dallas Goedert / Jalen Hurts / Taylor Heinicke / Antonio Gibson
I won’t be landing on any Commanders at Captain, but I like saving the salary with Goedert at Captain so we can comfortably fit both quarterbacks. We’ve seen the underdog quarterback go underutilized all year, so this is a good spot to get Heinicke at low exposure. It’s probably Heinicke’s last start, so he’ll push it, which will be good for the Commanders’ offense and the Eagles’ defense. Gibson is an interesting pairing with Heinicke as he should be playing on nearly all the passing downs.
Philadelphia Eagles Offense
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts: $12,200
No salary is too high for Jalen Hurts this season. In fact, he probably should’ve been $12,800 as we have seen with Lamar Jackson. His roster percentage is going to be pushing 70%, so we must be careful with how we build around him. For example, if we’re playing Sanders at Captain with Hurts, we won’t want more than one Eagles pass catcher. If we’re playing multiple Eagles pass catchers, we want to fit Hurts in the Captain Spot.
Running back
Miles Sanders: $9,800
Miles Sanders has reinvented himself this season as a true workhorse back. He’s got double-digit carries in all but one game. He has also scored six touchdowns. While Sanders is in a great spot as an 11-point home favorite, we have exposure to worry about. Sanders and A.J. Brown are both excellent plays but Sanders may carry a slightly higher roster percentage.
Kenneth Gainwell: $4,600
Kenneth Gainwell continues to be too expensive for his limited role but repeatedly made me look bad for fading him. At least he’s predictable. He’s likely going to see around five carries and two targets. He’ll need to score a touchdown to land in the optimal lineup, which he’s done three times this season.
Receiver
A.J. Brown: $10,600
Our big decision point comes in the $10,000 range with Sanders and A.J. Brown. Sanders has the better game environment, but Brown has the higher ceiling and slightly less exposure. Brown is running hot with five touchdowns in the last three weeks. His target percentage can be matched by both Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith but neither player is nearly as safe of a bet. Sanders or Brown should be in most lineups, but it’d be difficult to afford both with Hurts while remaining unique.
DeVonta Smith: $8,000
DeVonta Smith is in a battle with Gabe Davis for the title of “League’s most inconsistent receiver.” Both are excellent players with workloads that are extremely sensitive to game environment. Fortunately for us, we embrace the variance on Showdown slates. Over the past three weeks, Smith has not surpassed five receptions or 50 yards. Queue the “he’s due” narrative. Smith probably gets us five receptions for 40 yards, but he might get us eight for 169. With Goedert priced so similarly, Smith should be the least-rostered Eagles starter.
Dallas Goedert: $7,800
On any given week Dallas Goedert can match the target share of Brown or Smith, but he lacks the ceiling on most weeks. Last week Goedert finished as the optimal Captain with eight receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown. This likely propels him into the third highest rostership amongst Eagles skill position players. He’s got one of the slate’s highest floors but I’ll give a slight nod to Smith due to ownership.
Quez Watkins: $4,200
Quez Watkins has met value at this price just once this season. He’s being targeted roughly twice a game throughout the season but has a $4,200 salary due to his deep play potential. I prefer both defenses and kickers at this price point over Watkins.
Punt plays
Boston Scott: $1,600
Boston Scott gets the nod due to game environment with the chance of increased usage in a blowout.
Zach Pascal: $1,400
Zach Pascal is playing 20% fewer snaps than Watkins but earns a similar target share at $2,800 cheaper.
Favorite Stack
DeVonta Smith / Jalen Hurts / Miles Sanders / Curtis Samuel
Smith will be the least rostered of the Eagles’ skill position players at Captain. He’s got a similar target share to Goedert with a similar ceiling to Brown. With Smith at Captain, we’ll want to steer clear of Brown, so it makes the decision to play Sanders a no-brainer. Plenty of Commanders fit here as run-back options, but Samuel falls into a unique price range that could allow him to be overlooked.