NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them. Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.
If a wide receiver who was projected for nine points instead earns 22 points, then there is a strong likelihood that his performance came at the detriment of a teammate, or even a member of the opposing team. His running back likely received less opportunity, while the opposing team’s running back may have seen a boost. In this scenario, his quarterback may have also produced well.
The game theory is much more intricate than this one example, but it gets you down the path of thinking of showdown as an if/then rather than a raw projection.
There may be times when Cooper Kupp finishes as the best play of the slate without Matthew Stafford, and other times Jonathan Taylor may rush for 200 yards while Matt Ryan and Michael Pittman still make the optimal lineup. Showdown is non-binary, but over time sound lineup construction will reign supreme.
Most important of all:
The likeliest outcome is only one of infinite outcomes. When rostership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario. The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.
Slate Breakdown
Russell Wilson is heading back to the home of the 12th Man with his Denver Broncos as 6.5-point road favorites over the Seattle Seahawks. The game total currently sits at a lowly 44 points. One of the primary motivations for Wilson to leave Seattle was because of Pete Carroll’s inability to “let Russ cook.”
Expect Russ to “cook” early and often in this game, and for the remainder of the season, as Wilson has a plethora of weapons at his disposal. With Nathaniel Hackett at the helm, the Broncos are expected to put their foot on the gas and never take it off. Seattle’s pace will have no choice but to increase if they want any shot at keeping up in this game.
Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon should both be busy regardless of the game script, as Hackett has deemed his backfield rotation a “hot-hand” approach.
Injury Notes
KJ Hamler – Knee – Questionable – Trending towards playing
Kenneth Walker III – Hernia – Questionable – Trending towards sitting
Denver Broncos Offense
Quarterback
Russell Wilson: $11,800
Wilson should be priced closer to Matthew Stafford’s Week 1 price ($10,400) than Josh Allen’s ($12,000) but given so much production on this slate coming from Denver, Wilson’s price is one you must pay.
Running back
Javonte Williams: $10,200
Nathaniel Hackett has called this backfield a “hot hand” situation, and I believe him based on all reports out of Denver this offseason. Melvin Gordon has taken nearly 50% of the backfield touches throughout training camp. Williams is the more talented back at this point in their respective careers.
As a rookie, Williams topped the charts in nearly every running back efficiency metric. If Williams was projected for less exposure at his lofty price tag, I would lean into him based on talent. Unfortunately, Williams is expected to carry at least twice the exposure as Gordon at $2,800 more, so this is a slate to lean into the less electric Gordon.
Melvin Gordon: $7,400
Both Williams and Gordon will catch passes, so that is a wash. The most important question is who the red zone back will be. Gordon himself pointed to the notion that the Broncos want Williams to be “the guy” however, that has not been the case throughout camp.
Williams is the most likely to handle the high-value touches, but his price tag makes it tough to recommend him over Gordon. Later in the year there will be more clarity, and Gordon will likely be priced as more of a backup, but for now, Gordon is a strong play.
Receiver
Courtland Sutton: $9,400
Any reporter who has seen a single training camp practice has reported that Courtland Sutton is lightyears ahead of Jerry Jeudy as pertains to Wilson’s favorite receiver. Due to price, Sutton and Jeudy share similar rostership. Sutton is the preferred option in Wilson stacks if only playing one of the two, but they are viable together.
Jerry Jeudy: $8,200
From a point-per-dollar perspective, Jeudy is just as strong a play as Sutton. Jeudy missed large portions of the Broncos’ offseason program due to various factors between injury and personal obligations. There have been multiple reports of Wilson getting in extra work with Jeudy, which has resulted in mixed reviews.
Beyond media blurbs, there is not much data to give clarity on Jeudy’s role in the offense. Since Tim Patrick’s injury, we at least know Jeudy will be a full-time player, so Jeudy is a strong option in Denver stacks.
KJ Hamler: $4,400
Hamler missed most of the 2021 season due to an ACL injury. He is expected to be active and should have no limitations. He is a deep play threat, who will operate often out of the slot, which are two roles we like for fantasy production. He’s a strong option given his price, and pairs well with either Sutton or Jeudy given that he does not need to take away much target volume to make good on his cost.
Albert Okwuegbunam: $5,000
Okweugbunam has received quite the beating in the media from Hackett this summer, even resulting in the supposed “star” tight end playing late into preseason games. Fortunately for Okeugbunam, he is essentially the only viable option for the Broncos at tight end due to Greg Dulcich’s appearance on the injured reserve.
Okwuegbunam is slightly more expensive than Hamler but should have a larger role both in terms of volume and red zone usage. Hamler and Okwuegbunam together make a unique Wilson stack, but if only choosing one, Okwuegbunam is the better option.
Punt plays
There are no recommended punt plays for Denver, given their strong depth at premium prices and the number of quality punt plays for Seattle.
Favorite Stack
Russell Wilson / KJ Hamler / Albert Okwuegbunam / Rashaad Penny
Penny will be one of the slate’s most rostered players, for good reason. He is not worth completing omitting from lineups, so pair him with Wilson and a couple of his less-owned options.
Seattle Seahawks Offense
Quarterback
Geno Smith: $8,600
Geno Smith started four games in Wilson’s absence last season. In those games, he passed for over 200 yards only once and passed for more than one touchdown only once (in different games).
When he was priced as a backup, he was more viable, like Cooper Rush last season, but his price at $8,600 makes him a weaker point-per-dollar projection. Buying in on Smith means paying up for his receiver options, which will take away from the far superior Denver options you could fit in your lineups.
Running back
Rashaad Penny: $7,800
Rashaad Penny won people’s fantasy leagues last season as he finally proved what he was capable of, just four short years after being selected in the first round. He averaged 165 yards over his last three games and is in the same position to start the season due to Kenneth Walker III’s doubtful status.
Penny is the strongest play on the slate, with his only downfall being his lack of receiving production. DeeJay Dallas or Travis Homer will likely handle any pass-catching duties out of the backfield, but fortunately for Penny, the Seahawks will run more than anyone in the league in a negative game script.
Receiver
DK Metcalf: $8,400
Instead of stacking Smith, select one of his pass-catching options who may succeed. Metcalf averaged six targets per game with Smith in 2021. Over that four-game stretch, he scored five touchdowns.
One could argue looking back that Metcalf was better off with Smith as crazy as that may sound. Given the price bump, Metcalf should be the less-rostered option between him and Lockett, making him a more contrarian play with a similar ceiling.
Tyler Lockett: $7,000
While Metcalf thrived, on a moderate target share with Smith, it was Lockett who soaked up the volume. What Smith demonstrated in his few starts is a supremely narrow target share with essentially only Metcalf and Lockett getting any looks. Lockett had games of 10, 7, 3, and 13 targets but only reached value in his final game where he tallied 142 total yards.
Boom-bust players like Lockett tend to get rostered less in Showdown. Either Lockett or Metcalf provides great leverage over Penny’s high exposure.
Noah Fant: $6,200
Noah Fant has run a route at an alarmingly low rate compared to his snaps played. Seattle has always had a reputation, whether justified or not, for neglecting their receiving tight ends. If Drew Lock had drawn the starting nod, Fant would have been a more intriguing play but expect Fant to be underutilized relative to his talent with Seattle.
At his price, Fant is not viable except as leverage off Lockett or Metcalf, but their exposure should not warrant a concentrated effort to pivot.
Punt plays
Dee Eskridge: $1,000
Dee Eskridge played 10 games in 2021. He earned two or more targets in six of those games, however, none of them were with Smith. Eskridge will be the most popular punt play. While he is viable, the two running backs should have lower exposure with a similar opportunity.
Deejay Dallas: $400
DeeJay Dallas had 28 carries to go along with eight targets in his three pre-season games in 2022. Given Dallas is $1,000 cheaper he will carry higher ownership. He is the stronger play of the two Seattle backups.
Travis Homer: $1,400
Travis Homer had 12 carries to go along with six targets in his three pre-season games in 2022. Given he is $1,000 more expensive than Dallas he will carry less ownership. He is the weaker play of the two Seattle backups, however, if your build fits either back and you need less cumulative ownership, Homer is a viable pivot in tournaments.
Favorite Stack
Metcalf/Wilson/Gordon/Okwuegbunam
It is fundamentally sound to pair your Captain wide receiver with their quarterback, however, on rare occasions with a narrow enough target tree it is viable to lean into a receiver succeeding without their quarterback finding success. Cooper Kupp is notorious for far outproducing his price tag without Matthew Stafford making the optimal lineup.