NFL DFS Picks: Best Plays for the AFC & NFC Championship Games

The regular season is over, but the fantasy football fun continues into the NFL playoffs thanks to daily fantasy sports.

Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, and Travis Kelce are among the best plays for AFC and NFC Championship Game DFS.

Read about them and more of the best DFS picks below.

AFC & NFC Championship Game Picks

Quarterback

Brock Purdy $6,400

As a 7-point home favorite in a 51-point total with great weather, Purdy has the best environment one could ask for. Unfortunately, his situation is so much better than the other three options that his roster percentage will push 40%. He’s also straightforward to stack, which will only drive up the roster percentages of his primary targets. If Deebo Samuel is active, he lacks the ancillary pieces available to uniquely stack the 49ers. With most Purdy lineups including Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, the rest of the lineup must be particularly unique.

Lamar Jackson $7,700

If playing 100% of Brock Purdy is too much to stomach, Jackson is a great pivot. He is far less comfortable with a play. Not because he can’t score 40 DraftKings points, but because when he does we have no clue who he’s bringing with him. His target tree has no consistency, and it’s only getting muddier with the return of Mark Andrews. It may be worth considering a small Ravens stack with a unique Kansas City bring-back. Then fill out the rest of the lineup with chalky players from the Detroit-San Fransisco game.

Don’t Miss Out on Our Historic Season

2023 has been Warren Sharp’s most profitable season betting on the NFL in the last decade.

A $100 bettor is up $8,148 following Warren’s recommendation this NFL season.

We have been even stronger late in the season, going 62-29 (68%) on elevated plays over the last two months.

And the fun is not over. Our weekly postseason packages are live, and we are offering a great deal.

Use code 75OFF to get 75% off the weekly postseason package.

» Learn more about this offer!

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey $9,000

McCaffrey’s roster percentage is going to be north of 70%. While that may sound egregious, one could argue he has greater than an 80% chance of being in the optimal lineup. With so few options at the top to pivot to, it’s worth considering locking McCaffrey and making this an 8-man slate. It won’t feel great, or contrarian, but there are so few opportunities for him to fail on this two-game slate.

David Montgomery $5,600

Both Jahmyr Gibbs and Montgomery have been excellent options in each round of the playoffs. Last week, Montgomery played 56% of the snaps to Gibbs’ 36%. He carried the ball 10 times and received 4 targets. The production was uninspiring, but the workload was strong. The only reason, perhaps, that his roster percentage is down, is that he didn’t score last week. Except he did. Well, in theory. Montgomery has been the hammer on the goal line all season, having scored 14 touchdowns. On Craig Reynolds’ 1-yard score last week, the Lions had the wrong personnel on the field. Instead of burning a time out they stuck with the play. Montgomery would’ve easily landed in the end zone and shifted his roster percentage for this week with a bigger fantasy output.
This week, he faces a tall task with the 49ers front, but when his role is predicated around plunging the ball in the end zone on short yardage, the opponent doesn’t often matter.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Aiyuk $6,900

Aiyuk’s roster percentage is tough to trust until Samuel’s status is more concrete. If Samuel is active, I am comfortable locking Purdy, McCaffrey, and Aiyuk into all my lineups. If Samuel is inactive, Aiyuk’s roster percentage is going to skyrocket. It also opens the door for punt options like Chris Conley and Jauan Jennings. In this case, you could cap Aiyuk’s roster percentage around 50% with Purdy.

Jauan Jennings $4,600

Jennings will be the direct replacement for Samuel. On 62% of the snaps last week, he was targeted 6 times resulting in 5 catches for 61 yards. One could argue that Jennings is a solid play regardless of Samuel’s status given how chalky the 49ers stacks are expected to be. Even if Samuel plays, he will most certainly be limited.

Rashod Bateman $3,600

Both Bateman and Nelson Agholor are strong candidates for cheap one-offs as Jackson is expected to find ample success through the air. While it’s essentially a coin-flip, Bateman gets the nod as he’s projected for a lower roster percentage and consistently out-snaps Agholor.

Mecole Hardman $3,000

Hardman’s roster percentage is going to be next to nothing, yet he’s a great play for those who can stomach it. At the minimum price, you’re looking for someone who earns opportunities in unique ways. Last week, Hardman was the focus on both goal line plays that he was active for. In the first play, Patrick Mahomes faked the handoff to Hardman. In the second play, Hardman was given the handoff before fumbling it through the endzone. You’d think that would affect his opportunities going forward, but Andy Reid has never been shy about giving Hardman more opportunities than he deserves.

Tight End

Travis Kelce $6,600

Kelce has been the focal point of the Chiefs offense, as he is in every postseason. This week he is in a unique position in which his roster percentage will be rather low. This is because George Kittle will be rostered nearly 60% of the time as he projects better for $1,300 less. We also have Mark Andrews returning for $1,600 less. With Rashee Rice playing injured, this is an excellent opportunity to play a Hall of Fame tight end at a low roster percentage in an environment where he shines the most.

Sam LaPorta $5,400

LaPorta is set for his most difficult matchup of the year, but he makes a ton of sense based on his price. He is $100 more than Kittle and $400 more than Andrews. This will leave him with virtually no roster percentage, but he’s a unique option in the weekend’s highest game total. He provides leverage from all angles. First, he is a great pivot off of the three Lions wide receivers who all project for roster percentages above 30%. Next, he’s an excellent pivot against the three tight ends above him who will all be significantly more popular. Lastly, he can be utilized in the flex as the Lions bring back for a 49ers stack that includes Kittle.

Articles