The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Divisional Round. Find a breakdown of every Divisional Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Full Game Divisional Round Fantasy Football Previews
Matchup | Time |
---|---|
Texans @ Chiefs -- FREE | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
Commanders @ Lions | Saturday -- 8 p.m. ET |
Rams @ Eagles | Sunday -- 3 p.m. ET |
Ravens @ Bills | Sunday -- 6:30 p.m. ET |
Contents
- 1 Patrick Mahomes Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
- 2 C.J. Stroud Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
- 3 Lamar Jackson Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
- 4 Josh Allen Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
- 5 Jalen Hurts Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
- 6 Matthew Stafford Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
- 7 Jayden Daniels Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
- 8 Jared Goff Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
Patrick Mahomes Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
Mahomes had another “down” season this year based on the illustrious bar he set early in his career.
He set career lows in passing yards per game (245.5) and yards per pass attempt (6.8 Y/A).
He threw 26 passing touchdowns over 16 games, matching a career-low in 2019 when he played 14 games.
Mahomes took a career-high 36 sacks.
He was hit on 108 dropbacks this season, the most of his career.
Mahomes threw 30.8% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (only ahead of Tua Tagovailoa), his highest rate ever in a season.
Only 26.3% of his throws were 10 or more yards further downfield (ahead of only Gardner Minshew), his lowest career rate.
For fantasy purposes, he closed the year QB11 in points per game (17.7).
For as lackluster as his top-down stats look compared to his early-career production, Mahomes closed the year strongly.
He threw 18 touchdowns to 2 interceptions over his final 9 games.
From Week 9 on, he averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game, scoring 23.7 points and 26.0 points in the two games after Marquise Brown returned to the lineup.
With Brown available, you can strongly argue that this pass-catching unit is more talented than the unit we saw Kansas City push out in the postseason a year ago.
That includes the Week 16 game against Houston.
In that game, Mahomes only threw for 6.3 yards per pass attempt while Houston limited him to 260 yards passing, but he added 33 yards and a rushing touchdown to bolster his outing.
Houston threw several looks at Mahomes in that matchup.
They played Cover 1 on 40.4% of the snaps, the second-highest rate anyone has against Mahomes this season.
They played Cover 3 on 25.5% of the snaps and Cover 2 on 21.3%.
Mahomes had the most success when Houston went to those man coverage looks.
He threw for 8.2 Y/A against man coverage in that matchup compared to 5.6 Y/A against their Cover 3 looks and 4.4 Y/A against Cover 2.
Getting pressure has been massive for Houston’s pass defense this season.
Out of 209 defensive linemen with 100 or more snaps as a pass rusher, Will Anderson is eighth in the NFL in pressure rate (14.7%) while Danielle Hunter is 18th (13.9%).
When they have pressured the opposing passer, Houston has allowed a league-low 37.2% completion rate and 5.9 Y/A (12th).
They pressured Justin Herbert on 52.8% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate last weekend.
When they generated pressure, Herbert was 4-of-15 passing with 2 interceptions.
Houston pressured Mahomes on 37.8% of his dropbacks in that game, holding him to 5.9 Y/A on those plays with a sack.
If Houston has one bugaboo it is that they will allow big plays.
They have allowed a league-high 17 passing touchdowns outside the red zone (another last week).
As a byproduct, they have allowed a 5.5% touchdown rate (28th) and 11.8 yards per completion (28th) despite surrendering the lowest completion rate in the NFL (58%).
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C.J. Stroud Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
After struggling in his second season, Stroud gave a positive performance to open the postseason.
He threw for 282 yards, his most in a game since Week 8.
His 8.5 yards per pass attempt were the highest since Week 5.
His 17.5 fantasy points were his most since Week 6.
His pass catchers helped out.
Houston had 120 yards after the catch, the most in a game for Stroud since Week 11.
The Texans put the ball in Stroud’s hands early, something we have not seen often this season.
In the first half, Stroud dropped back 73.1% of the time on early downs, his second-highest season rate.
His only game higher was when these teams played in Week 16.
Stroud ended that game against the Chiefs with a 71.1% dropback rate on early downs.
While Stroud’s performance in the Wild Card Round was favorably compared to the larger sample from this season, he still has only one 20-point game for fantasy.
Stroud ended his Week 16 games against the Chiefs completing 23 of 39 passes (59%) for 244 yards (6.3 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, adding 23 rushing yards (16.1 fantasy points).
The Chiefs are 11th in points allowed per pass attempt (0.402) and held Stroud below that (0.353) in that matchup.
Kansas City pressured Stroud on 48.8% of his dropbacks in that game.
Under pressure, Stroud was 7-of-19 (36.8%) for 112 yards (5.9 Y/A) with an interception and 2 sacks.
Lamar Jackson Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
Jackson opened up the postseason as sharp as he was in the regular season.
He connected on 16 of 21 (76.2%) passes for 175 yards (8.3 Y/A) and 2 touchdowns, rushing 15 times for 81 yards (23.1 fantasy points) against the Steelers.
Jackson has only two games this season with fewer than 18.9 fantasy points and only three with fewer than 20.
When these teams hooked up early in the season, Jackson went 13 of 18 (72.2%) for 156 yards (8.7 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns, rushing 6 times for 54 yards and a touchdown (23.6 points).
Jackson has faced a Sean McDermott-led defense four times, never throwing for more than 162 yards in those games, but he was hyper-efficient in the first matchup this season between these teams.
His 0.47 EPA per dropback was the third-highest against Buffalo this season.
The Bills were highly passive in the first matchup.
They blitzed Jackson on 25% of his snaps, his fourth-lowest rate in a game this season.
They only played man coverage on 8.3% of their snaps.
They were in Cover 4 41.7% of the time.
Jackson saw quarters at a higher rate in just one other game this season.
We have mentioned it a few times throughout the season. The only times teams have had any limited success against Jackson this season have been by aggressively playing Cover 1 and sending man blitzes.
Even then, the success has been fleeting, but Jackson has slaughtered passive defensive tendencies this season.
No quarterback has a higher rating against zone coverage this season than Jackson (120.8).
He has completed 71.3% of his passes for a league-high 9.7 Y/A against zone coverages and thrown a league-high 17 touchdowns.
When he has not been blitzed, Jackson leads the NFL with 8.7 Y/A, throwing 27 touchdowns to 1 interception.
Against Cover 4 this season, Jackson led the NFL with a 125.8 rating, completing 71.9% of his passes for 9.1 Y/A and a 7.8% touchdown rate.
Against man blitzes, Jackson’s 7.0 Y/A is 18th in the league while his 47.6% success rate dips to 12th.
It goes against the Bills' tendencies to go into heavy man coverage and send a high rate of blitzes.
Still, it is a pick-your-poison situation, and hanging back has not provided many answers for teams to this point when facing Baltimore.
Even after all that, you still have to contend with Jackson’s ability on the ground.
Jackson has run more in the postseason.
The only time he topped the 15 runs he had last week this season came back in Week 1.
He has rushed for at least 54 yards in six of his seven postseason appearances.
Josh Allen Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
In the Wild Card Round, Allen paced the position with 25.5 points, completing 20 of 26 passes (76.9%) for 272 yards (10.5 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns, rushing 8 times for 46 yards.
Allen had one of his worst games of the season when these teams played in Week 4.
He completed 55.2% of his passes (16 of 29) for 180 yards (6.2 Y/A) without a touchdown, rushing 5 times for 21 yards.
The following week, Allen then completed only 9 of 30 passes against Houston.
Since then, he has been sixth in the league in yards per pass attempt (8.1 Y/A) and eighth in touchdown rate (5.8%).
In the Week 4 matchup, the Ravens went against their tendency this season.
The majority of teams have been playing Buffalo aggressively.
Allen has seen the highest rate of man coverage of any quarterback this season on 34.6% of his snaps.
Against man coverage, Allen has thrown 21 touchdowns to 3 interceptions.
His 12.4% touchdown rate against man coverage is third in the NFL.
Against zone coverage, Allen has thrown 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
His 1.2% touchdown rate against zone coverages is 31st in the league.
He still averages 8.2 Y/A (6th) against zone looks, but teams have had a higher success keeping Allen from lighting them up in the touchdown department.
Baltimore went that route in the first matchup.
They played zone coverage on 75.7% of Allen’s dropbacks in that game.
Allen faced a higher rate of zone coverage in just one other game this season, against Gus Bradley and the Colts.
That and the Baltimore games were the only games in which Allen did not throw a touchdown pass.
That ran against what the Ravens have done.
It was their highest rate of zone coverage in a game this season.
That game also came when the Baltimore defense was considered lousy and one to target.
Over their past 8 games, the Ravens have allowed a 60.3% completion rate (4th), 6.2 Y/A (2nd), and a league-low 2.7% touchdown rate.
The transition of Kyle Hamilton to safety is often credited with that turnaround.
Still, it should also be acknowledged that the Ravens have faced Pittsburgh (three times), Houston, the Chargers, Philadelphia, the Giants, and Cleveland over that span.
None of those passing games have been stellar throughout the season.
Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Jalen Hurts are not nobodies, but we have also seen all those passers have their hiccups throughout 2024.
Based on 2024 peripherals, Allen is easily rungs ahead of those passers, but of course, the worst version of this defense had success in this matchup.
We saw Wilson still connect on some big plays last week, so something is still on the table here.
Even with their hot finish, the Ravens have still allowed a passing play of 20 or more yards on 9% of passing plays, which is 25th in the league.
This game being in Buffalo, also has weight.
In the first matchup, Baltimore pressured Allen on 44.1% of his dropbacks, his second-highest rate in a game this season.
Baltimore's pressure rate at home this season (7th) is 37.9%, compared to 29.1% on the road (27th).
Like Jackson, even after all of that, Allen can use his legs, which he is doing far more to close the season than when these teams played earlier.
Allen has rushed 7.9 times for 45.8 yards per game over the past 8 games, adding 9 rushing touchdowns.
Before that, he ran 4.8 times for 21.5 yards per game with 1 touchdown.
Jalen Hurts Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
Hurts was not tasked with lifting much on Sunday but struggled when the Eagles attempted to push the ball.
Hurts ended Sunday’s game 13 of 21 for 131 yards (6.2 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.
He added 36 yards rushing to churn out a respectable 16.8 standard fantasy points.
Whether you want to attribute his performance to rust due to not playing since Dec. 22 or the quality of the Green Bay defense, it was the fourth time over his past 6 games in which Hurts has scored fewer than 20 fantasy points.
As lackluster as that sounds, Hurts was fourth last week in passing points per attempt (0.630) since he threw a pair of touchdowns and did not turn the ball over.
Hurts has thrown multiple passing scores in three straight games and just 1 interception over his past 13 games.
Overall passing volume once again limited his overall output.
The Eagles' 42.1% dropback rate on Sunday was the second-lowest of any team over the weekend.
They threw the ball 12% below expectations and a whopping 25% below expectations on first down.
During the regular season, Philadelphia had a league-low 47.9% dropback rate, throwing the ball 8% below expectations and 9% below expectations on first down.
The Eagles had a 30% dropback rate in the second half on Sunday.
That rate was 39.6% in the second half of games in the regular season.
Even for them, Sunday was an ultra-conservative approach.
When these teams played in Week 12, Hurts was 15 of 22 (68.2%) for 179 yards (8.1 Y/A) with a touchdown passing, adding 39 yards rushing (15.1 fantasy points).
In that game, Hurts was 11 of 15 (73.3%) for 101 yards (6.7 Y/A) and a touchdown in the first half but only threw the ball 7 more times after halftime.
If the Rams succeed in pulling out this upset, they must force the Eagles to throw the football more while continuing to find a way to apply pressure when Hurts does drop back.
The Rams pressured Hurts on 34.6% of his dropbacks in Week 12.
Under pressure, Hurts was 2 of 7 (28.6%) for 2.4 Y/A.
Hurts has been one of the most sensitive quarterbacks to pressure this season.
When kept clean, Hurts has completed 79.2% of his passes (2nd) for 9.3 Y/A (2nd)
Under pressure, Hurts has completed 45.1% of his passes (24th) for 5.0 Y/A (30th).
The Rams are among the most sensitive pass defenses when creating pressure versus not getting home.
Over their past 11 games, the Rams have allowed a 48.2% completion rate (14th) and 5.3 Y/A (3rd) when creating pressure on the opposing quarterback.
Without pressure, they have allowed a 72% completion rate (18th) and 7.9 Y/A (23rd).
Matthew Stafford Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
Stafford opened the game on Monday night on fire.
He connected on 11 of 12 passes for 124 yards (10.3 Y/A) and a touchdown in the first quarter.
Minnesota then provided zero pushback, and Stafford was not tasked with much more lifting.
He went 8 of 15 (53.3%) for 85 yards (5.7 Y/A) and a touchdown the rest of the way.
When these teams played in Week 12, Stafford was the opposite of his performance on Monday.
In the first game between these teams, Stafford was 7 of 11 for 67 yards (6.1 Y/A) in the first half before completing 17 of 25 passes for 176 yards (7.0 Y/A) and 2 touchdowns in the second half chasing points.
He was sacked 5 times, matching a season high.
The Eagles played aggressively in that game.
They played man coverage on 32.2% of the snaps, above their 24.1% rate on the year and the fourth-highest rate for them in a game this season.
On those plays in man coverage, Stafford was 5 of 12 (41.7%) for 24 yards (2.0 Y/A).
When the Eagles played zone coverage, Stafford went 19 of 24 (79.2%) for 219 yards (9.2 Y/A).
He ended the game with 19.2 fantasy points, so not all was lost from a fantasy lens.
Stafford has averaged 202 passing yards over his past seven games with one game reaching 250 yards during that stretch.
The Eagles have allowed more than 260 passing yards in one game this season.
They allow a league-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt, forcing Stafford to remain efficient and sustain a high touchdown rate.
Jayden Daniels Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
Building on a stellar regular season as a rookie, Daniels led the Washington offense to a victory in his first postseason appearance.
He threw for 7.7 yards per pass attempt, his highest in a game since Week 9.
He threw 2 touchdown passes, his sixth straight full game throwing multiple scores.
He added 36 yards rushing.
It was not just the counting stats for Daniels on Sunday night. It was also when he delivered.
Daniels had 8 passing first downs or touchdowns on third and fourth downs on Sunday, the most of any quarterback on the weekend.
Both of his passing touchdowns came on third or fourth down.
In the fourth quarter, Daniels was 6-of-9 passing with a touchdown.
That has been the story all season.
When it has mattered the most, Daniels has delivered in those spots.
Daniels is sixth in the NFL in rating (110.7) and fifth in EPA per dropback (0.26) on third or fourth down (110.7) over the entire season.
In the fourth quarter, he was third in rating (114.0) and fifth in EPA per dropback (0.33).
The Detroit defense had injury issues to close the season, but as they showed in Week 18, they can still put offenses in a tough spot through an aggressive playstyle.
Detroit plays the most man coverage on passing snaps (45.4%) and has blitzed 33.7% of the time (fourth).
Daniels completed 74.6% of his passes (3rd) and averaged 8.0 Y/A against zone coverage this season (12th).
Against man coverage, he had a dip in efficiency, completing 59.2% of his throws (12th) for 6.5 Y/A (23rd).
He also was sacked on 12.3% of his dropbacks against man coverage (34th) compared to a 6.7% rate (21st) against zone.
But against man coverage, Daniels threw a lot more touchdowns.
He had a 9.2% touchdown rate against man coverage as opposed to a 1.7% rate (27th) against zone looks.
Daniels has been solid against the blitz this season, completing 64% of his passes (13th) for 8.4 Y/A (10th) and an 8% touchdown rate (10th).
The one bugaboo was taking a sack on 10.2% of those dropbacks, 30th in the league.
The other element in playing an aggressive defense is the opportunity for the quarterback to run.
Daniels leads the NFL with a 10.7% scramble rate when blitzed and an 11.5% scramble rate against man coverage.
He leads the league in rushing yards when blitzed (213) and is second in yards against man coverage (241) behind Lamar Jackson (308).
Detroit has had issues allowing rushing production to passers for multiple seasons.
Detroit is 29th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (26.7 per game).
In the previous two seasons under Aaron Glenn, they were 30th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks in 2023 (24.7 per game) and dead last in 2022 (41.2 per game).
They have also allowed 6 rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, tied for the third-most in the league.
Jared Goff Divisional Round Fantasy Outlook
Goff hits the postseason coming off the best regular season of his career.
He set career marks in completing 72.4% of his passes, 37 passing touchdowns, and 8.6 yards per pass attempt.
We mentioned how clutch Daniels was on third and fourth downs this season, but Goff led the NFL in EPA dropback on those downs (0.48).
Goff even had his best season under pressure, which was the constant hole in his game.
Goff had career marks across the board when pressured this year, completing 53.4% of his passes (9th) for 6.8 Y/A (9th).
And if you aren’t going to disrupt Goff and this passing game, good luck.
Goff completed a league-high 79.5% of his passes from a clean pocket for 9.3 Y/A (4th) and a 7.7% touchdown rate (3rd).
Washington can get home, ranking eighth in pressure rate without blitzing (34.1%), but can they hold up on the back end?
When Washington has not gotten pressure, they have allowed 7.8 yards per attempt (27th) and a 5.4% touchdown rate (27th).
Washington is 23rd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.451) while Goff is second in the league (0.574).
The Commanders just faced the first good quarterback they have drawn over the back-third of the year, Baker Mayfield, and allowed an 83% completion rate and 10.3 yards per pass attempt.
They had faced Cooper Rush, Will Levis, Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, Michael Penix, and Trey Lance before that.
Detroit makes it hard to sit back and play two-high coverages against them because they will kill you in the run game if you want to play coverage.
Goff is 28th in the league in the percentage of dropbacks with the middle of the field open (39.4%), forcing teams to devote resources to the middle since you have to respect the running game.
Goff has faced the league’s highest rate of Cover 3 (41.6%).
When Detroit faced Dan Quinn with Dallas last season, they played Cover 1 on 28.6% of the snaps and Cover 3 on 22.9%, the two most used defensive looks.
Washington has climbed to fifth in the NFL in the rate of man coverage (34.7%) on passing snaps, which will play into a strength for Goff if they choose to stick with it.
Against man coverage, Goff leads the league with a 141.1 rating, completing 72.2% of his passes for 9.4 Y/A, with 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions.