The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Packers and Panthers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Carolina | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5 | Spread | -12.5 | ||
| 16.25 | Implied Total | 28.75 | ||
| 19.3 | 27 | Points/Gm | 27.6 | 5 |
| 24.0 | 20 | Points All./Gm | 21.4 | 10 |
| 64.5 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 60.9 | 19 |
| 56.4 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 23 |
| 4.9 | 29 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 5 |
| 5.5 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.6 | 2 |
| 45.74% | 8 | Rush% | 47.65% | 4 |
| 54.26% | 25 | Pass% | 52.35% | 29 |
| 43.02% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 33.41% | 1 |
| 56.98% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 66.59% | 32 |
- The Packers have 29 more plays of 15 yards or more than their opponents, the most significant differential in the league.
- Carolina has allowed a league-high 58 points off turnovers.
- The Packers average 2.7 more yards per passing play than their opponents, 2nd in the league.
- The Panthers average 1.1 fewer yards per passing play than their opponents, 27th in the league.
- Green Bay has converted 11.5% more of their third downs than their opponents, the best differential in the league.
- The Packers have converted a league-high 48.5% (16 of 33) of their third-and-long plays (needing 7 or more yards). The next-closest team has a conversion rate of 33.3%, while the league average is 24.3%.
- 16.5% of Carolina's plays have gained 10 or more yards, ahead of only the Saints (15.9%) and Browns (14.8%).
- The Packers are allowing 4.5 yards per play on early downs, second in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jordan Love: Love was sensational on Sunday night, completing 29 of 37 passes for 360 yards and 3 touchdowns.
At one point, he completed 20 consecutive passes.
He scored the second-most fantasy points of his career (28.3), and it was the first time that he was the QB1 overall in weekly scoring.
Love has now completed 70.9% of his passes (4th) for 8.4 yards per pass attempt (4th) and a 6.1% touchdown rate (8th).
He also has only a 0.9% interception rate (6th), paired with a 4.5% sack rate (8th).
All of that put together, he is second in EPA per dropback.
This is an excellent matchup for Love to stay efficient.
Carolina is last in the NFL in pressure rate (26%).
When Love has not been pressured, he leads the NFL in completion rate (86.3%) while ranking second in yards per attempt (10.2) and second in touchdown rate (8.9%).
We got to see the Packers pushed on Sunday night, which gave us a glimpse of Love’s ceiling.
He had a season-high 19 dropbacks in the second half, going 16 of 19 for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns after the half.
The Packers have nearly a 29-point team total here, so that will keep Love in play as a QB1, but we have to question how much push we will get from Carolina.
That is relevant because the Packers have a 44.4% dropback when playing ahead in the second half.
We also have the high rates of zone coverage that Carolina plays, which is another factor that dampens the ceiling here in terms of touchdowns.
Carolina has the highest rate of zone coverage in the league (82.9%).
Against man coverage, Love has a 14.3% touchdown rate (4th) compared to a 2.1% touchdown rate against zone coverages (16th).
Panthers QBs: Bryce Young was pushing to potentially get back on the field late last week.
That at least gives him a shot to play this weekend.
While Young has had plenty of issues this season, Andy Dalton was an abject disaster on Sunday.
Whenever Young is ready, he will easily be back under center.
Dalton scored 1.1 fantasy points on Sunday, completing 16 of 24 passes for 175 yards with no touchdowns and interceptions, losing 2 fumbles.
Dalton lost a league-high -11.1 EPA due to sacks, while a league-high 42.1% of his dropbacks resulted in a loss of -1.0 EPA or worse in Week 8.
Even if Young does get back on the field or we get another week of Dalton, both of these quarterbacks are back-end QB2 options this week.
Carolina has a subterranean team total as massive underdogs on the road.
The Packers have allowed a league-low 5.9 yards per pass attempt, although they have allowed multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, with Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett, and Aaron Rodgers being the last three.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 9 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Dolphins | Thursday Night Football |
| Bears @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Cardinals @ Cowboys | Monday Night Football |