Seahawks vs. Rams Fantasy Football Worksheet, NFC Championship

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the NFC Championship matchup between the Seahawks and Rams.

Find a breakdown of every Conference Championship Game in our Worksheet Hub.

Game Overview

The NFC Championship is a rubber match between the Rams and Seahawks, something that felt inevitable this season.

These have been two of the best teams from start to finish.

The Seahawks are the top team in the NFL in point differential this season (+226) while the Rams are third (+178).

The Rams are first in the NFL in net EPA on offense and defense (+228.0) while the Seahawks are third (+168.9).

Offensively, the Rams have been a powerhouse this season.

The Rams lead the NFL in touchdowns scored this season (71), points per drive (2.68), yards per play (6.0), and offensive success rate (48.5%).

The Seahawks are arguably the league’s best team in all three phases.

They are seventh in points per drive on offense (2.41), eighth in success rate (43.9%), and sixth in yards per play (5.9).

Defensively, they allow the fewest yards per play (4.5), the fewest points per drive (1.43), and are fourth in success rate (62.4%).

This is the first matchup between the No. 1 scoring offense and the top scoring defense in the Conference Championship since 2014, when Seattle defeated the Packers.

Defensively, there is a gap between these two teams on paper.

The Rams came away with timely turnovers last week, but they still allowed 417 yards with a 57.3% success rate against the Bears.

Over their past eight games, the Rams have allowed 2.24 points per drive (20th), a touchdown on 26.7% of opponent possessions (23rd), and 5.8 yards per play (26th).

They have allowed 361.9 yards per game over that stretch (23rd).

Before that, the Rams had allowed 1.52 points per drive (3rd), a touchdown on 14.9% of opponent drives (2nd), and 4.8 yards per play (6th).

Seattle has also scored a league-high 5 touchdowns on special teams this season, ranking second in kickoff return yardage (29.4 yards per return) and third in punt return yardage (15.4 per return).

When these teams met in Week 16, it was Rashid Shaheed‘s punt return touchdown that was a pivotal play in Seattle's comeback.

These teams played two close games in the regular season.

The Rams won at home in Week 11 by a score of 21-19.

Seattle lost that game, but they held the Rams to 249 yards of offense and a season-low 34% success rate.

Seattle then won at home in a Week 16 overtime shootout, 38-37.

That game was a different story.

The Rams had a season-high 581 yards, and Seattle allowed 6.6 yards per play, their second-most of the season.

In the two games between these teams, the Rams had 830 yards of offense while Seattle had 829.

Seattle was more balanced, posting 414 yards in the first matchup and then 415 yards in the second.

The standout area for both games was turnovers.

The Rams turned the ball over only once in two games, while Seattle had 7 turnovers — 4 in the first game and 3 in the second.

4 of those turnovers came with the ball on the Los Angeles side of the field.

That is a testament to how good Seattle can be in keeping games tight, even when losing the turnover battle so soundly.

The game scripts led to some inflated yardage for the Seahawks.

Seattle trailed for 119 of their 142 offensive snaps in both games.

The two highest yardage totals for Seattle this season in the fourth quarter and overtime came in both games against the Rams.

In Week 11, the Rams led 14-9 at the half and 14-12 through three quarters.

Seattle posted 168 yards in the fourth quarter of that game after 246 yards through three quarters.

In Week 16, the Rams led 13-7 at the half and were up 30-14 with 14:34 left in the game before being outscored 24-7 the rest of the way.

Seattle put up 180 yards of offense in the fourth quarter and overtime after 235 yards through three quarters.

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford: Connecting on 20 of 42 passes on Sunday, Stafford is coming off a season-low 47.6% completion rate last week in Chicago.

Stafford has now completed fewer than 60% of his passes in five of his past six games.

He did not throw a touchdown, his first time throwing fewer than 2 touchdowns in a game since Week 6.

In a surprise move, the Rams went with a pass-heavy approach out of 11 personnel against the Bears.

They played 11 personnel on 89.6% of their snaps, their second-highest rate of the season and highest rate since Week 5.

Sean McVay is a coach who will zig, but the results weren't there last week.

The Rams had their lowest passing-play success rate of the season (34.8%), well below their 49.9% rate for the year.

They ran only seven plays out of the heavy 13 personnel, which has been their calling card most of the season.

They had only three games this season with fewer snaps out of 13 than last week.

It is now a guessing game as to how much of that 13 personnel we see this week.

When these teams met in the regular season, the Rams used 13 personnel on 36% of their snaps in Week 11 and 61.4% in Week 16.

In the first matchup, they only averaged 2.7 yards per play on those 13 personnel snaps, but then 5.9 yards per play in the rematch.

The Seahawks matched those 13 personnel snaps with nickel defense on 66.7% and 79.6% of those plays.

Both playoff games have looked different for Stafford compared to the regular season.

He has hardly used any play action.

Against Carolina, Stafford had a 16.7% play-action rate, his second-lowest of the season.

Against Chicago, he had a 19% play-action rate, which was his third-lowest rate of the season.

In the regular season, Stafford had a league-high 36.7% play-action rate.

In the two games against Seattle, Stafford had play-action rates of 42.9% and 30.6%.

4 of his 5 passing touchdowns against Seattle this year came using play action.

Because the Rams have gone against the grain both postseason weeks, we are flying a bit in the dark about how they will attack Seattle in the third meeting.

Stafford had a tale of two games against Seattle this season.

Seattle did hold Stafford to completion rates of 53.6% and 59.2%, but after holding him to a season-low 4.6 yards per pass attempt in Week 11, Stafford averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt in the Week 16 matchup.

He went from a season-low 130 yards passing in the first matchup to a season-high 457 yards in the second.

In Week 11, Stafford only had 2 completions on throws of 10 or more yards downfield.

In the Week 16 matchup, he had 10.

Regardless of how the Rams choose to approach the Seattle defense, the Seahawks have to find a way to get to Stafford.

Stafford was not sacked and was hit only 7 times on 79 dropbacks against Seattle.

When Seattle pressured Stafford in those games, he was 3 of 11 (27.3%) for 19 yards (1.7 Y/A) in the first matchup and then 9 of 21 (42.9%) for 137 yards (6.5 Y/A) in the second.

Without pressure, Stafford was 12 of 17 (70.6%) for 111 yards (6.5 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns in Week 11 and then 20 of 28 (71.4%) for 320 yards (11.4 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns in the Week 16 matchup.

Seattle flipped their approach in both games.

After playing man coverage at a 39.3% rate in Week 11, they dropped to a 17.6% man coverage rate in Week 16.

In two games against Seattle’s man coverage this season, Stafford was 10 of 20 (50%) for 54 yards (2.7 Y/A).

In the second matchup, Stafford dissected the Seattle zone looks, going 24 of 38 (63.2%) for 435 yards (11.4 Y/A).

Seattle had a host of injuries during that second game, which could have been a primary reason they made so many changes.

Nick Emmanwori (82% of the snaps), Coby Bryant (61%), and Riq Woolen (46%) all left that game early, but the Rams were having success when those guys were on the field as well.

Sam Darnold: Darnold came into last week’s game with a late-week oblique injury but was able to suit up.

He did not have to do much lifting since San Francisco provided no pushback.

Darnold only had 19 dropbacks, going 12 of 17 (70.6%) for 124 yards (7.3 Y/A) with a touchdown.

He had 6 dropbacks in the second half.

Seattle should get plenty of push here.

Darnold has had his hands full with Chris Shula in the past two seasons.

In four games against the Rams the past two seasons, Darnold has thrown 7 interceptions and taken 16 sacks.

Darnold has a negative EPA per dropback in each of the past three matchups.

In the Week 11 matchup, Darnold was 29 of 44 (65.9%) for 279 yards (6.3 Y/A) with 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.

Week 16 was setting up as another letdown for Darnold against the Rams.

Through three quarters and the opening drive of the fourth quarter, Darnold was 14 of 22 for 179 yards with 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

He then went 8 of 12 for 91 yards with 2 touchdowns to close out the game, getting a win on a two-point conversion.

The Rams were able to get Seattle in position to avoid their play-action passing game in both matchups.

Using play action, Darnold was 16 of 21 (76.2%) for 187 yards (8.9 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and only 1 of his interceptions (also 0 sacks).

Without play action in those games, Darnold was 35 of 57 (61.4%) for 362 yards (6.4 Y/A) with 0 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, taking 4 sacks.

That has been the story for Darnold this season.

He is averaging 7.4 Y/A with a 3.4% touchdown rate on non-play-action passes, but a robust 11.2 Y/A with a 10.1% touchdown rate on play-action throws.

We have also noted in recent weeks that Seattle is asking less of Darnold downfield.

Through the opening 11 games of the season, Darnold led the NFL with 9.3 yards per pass attempt.

Over that period, he averaged 9.0 air yards per attempt (2nd) with 14.8% of his passes going 20 or more yards downfield (4th).

Since then, Darnold has averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt (15th) with 6.2 air yards per attempt (29th) and 6.1% of his passes going 20 or more yards downfield (30th).

He has thrown 27.6% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield over that stretch (28th) after a 39.3% rate prior (2nd).

In the two games against the Rams, Darnold was 8 of 21 (38.1%) with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions on throws 10 or more yards downfield.

The Rams have been more vulnerable to close the season, needing the turnovers they have forced of late.

Over their past eight games, the Rams are allowing 237.3 passing yards per game (25th), 7.3 yards per pass attempt (18th), 12.0 yards per completion (25th), and a 5.9% touchdown rate (28th).

The one thing they have continued to do is create pressure.

The Rams are second in the league in pressure rate (41.8%).

When the Rams were able to pressure Darnold this season, he was 13 of 26 (50%) for 147 yards (5.7 Y/A) with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions.

Without pressure in those games, Darnold was 38 of 52 (73.1%) for 402 yards (7.7 Y/A) with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions.

When Darnold has been sacked this season, Seattle is averaging 1.07 points per drive (15th) compared to 2.62 points per drive (8th) when he is not sacked on a drive.

Running Back

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