Bills vs. Ravens Fantasy Football Worksheet, Divisional Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Divisional Round matchup between the Bills and Ravens.

Find a breakdown of every Divisional Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

BaltimoreRank@BuffaloRank
-1Spread1
26.25Implied Total25.25
30.33Points/Gm30.92
20.88Points All./Gm20.88
62.614Plays/Gm60.919
61.515Opp. Plays/Gm60.810
6.81Off. Yards/Play66
5.26Def. Yards/Play5.521
53.59%2Rush%48.77%4
46.41%31Pass%51.23%29
35.59%1Opp. Rush %41.32%8
64.41%32Opp. Pass %58.68%25

Against the Spread:

  • Ravens: 11-6-1
  • Bills: 11-7
  • Bills Home: 6-3
  • Ravens Away: 6-3
  • Ravens as Favorite: 11-5-1
  • Bills as Underdog: 2-2

Game Overview

We are closing the Divisional Round with the most anticipated game of the week for many.

This is our tightest point spread of the weekend paired with the second-highest total.

The top two players in the MVP race are squaring off.

This is a rematch from Week 4 when the Ravens flooded the Bills 35-10 in Baltimore. 

That game was never a contest. It was 21-3 at halftime and 28-10 heading into the fourth quarter. 

In that game, the Bills posted a season-low 236 yards of offense.

There is a lot in favor of this game having the potential to live up to the hype despite the results in the first matchup.

Buffalo averages a league-high 3.40 points per drive at home, coming off a 31-7 runout against Denver last week.

Buffalo is one of two undefeated teams at home this season (9-0).

They will be tasked with slowing down one of the most efficient offenses in NFL history.

Baltimore averaged 6.85 yards per play in the regular season, trailing only the 2000 Rams (6.98) in the Super Bowl era.

They averaged 6.4 yards per play against Pittsburgh to open up the postseason.

No offense in the NFL has had a higher rate of plays gaining 10 or more yards (24.6%) and 20 or more yards (8.2%) than the Ravens.

When these teams played in Week 4, Baltimore averaged 7.9 yards per play.

We are getting two of the best offenses in the areas where things matter the most.

Buffalo has allowed 1.3 sacks plus turnovers per game, the fewest in the NFL.

Baltimore is second, allowing 2.0 per game.

Buffalo has allowed a league-low 27 points off turnovers while Baltimore is second (30).

The Ravens have converted 49.5% of their third downs (2nd), and Buffalo has converted 44.7% (7th).

Baltimore has scored a touchdown on a league-high 74.3% of their red zone possessions, and Buffalo is at 68.1% (3rd).

Defensively, there is more of a gap between these teams.

The Ravens have allowed 5.2 yards per play (6th) while the Bills have allowed 5.5 yards per play (21st).

The Ravens are 10th in points allowed per drive (1.90) while Buffalo is 15th (2.01).

Baltimore's 60.6% success rate on defensive snaps this season (5th) is better than Buffalo's 56.4% (25th).

Baltimore is the more battle-tested team this season.

The Ravens have played 11 games this season against teams in the 2024 playoffs, the most in the league.

They have an 8-3 record in those games.

Buffalo has gone 3-3, but they have wins against the Chiefs and Lions, the favorites for the Super Bowl in each conference. 

The Divisional Round has been a recent thorn for Buffalo.

They have lost in this round in three consecutive seasons, the past two at home.

Their last win in the Divisional Round came in 2020, at home against the Ravens.

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson: Jackson opened up the postseason as sharp as he was in the regular season.

He connected on 16 of 21 (76.2%) passes for 175 yards (8.3 Y/A) and 2 touchdowns, rushing 15 times for 81 yards (23.1 fantasy points) against the Steelers.

Jackson has only two games this season with fewer than 18.9 fantasy points and only three with fewer than 20. 

When these teams hooked up early in the season, Jackson went 13 of 18 (72.2%) for 156 yards (8.7 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns, rushing 6 times for 54 yards and a touchdown (23.6 points).

Jackson has faced a Sean McDermott-led defense four times, never throwing for more than 162 yards in those games, but he was hyper-efficient in the first matchup this season between these teams.

His 0.47 EPA per dropback was the third-highest against Buffalo this season.

The Bills were highly passive in the first matchup.

They blitzed Jackson on 25% of his snaps, his fourth-lowest rate in a game this season.

They only played man coverage on 8.3% of their snaps.

They were in Cover 4 41.7% of the time. 

Jackson saw quarters at a higher rate in just one other game this season. 

We have mentioned it a few times throughout the season. The only times teams have had any limited success against Jackson this season have been by aggressively playing Cover 1 and sending man blitzes.

Even then, the success has been fleeting, but Jackson has slaughtered passive defensive tendencies this season.

No quarterback has a higher rating against zone coverage this season than Jackson (120.8).

He has completed 71.3% of his passes for a league-high 9.7 Y/A against zone coverages and thrown a league-high 17 touchdowns.

When he has not been blitzed, Jackson leads the NFL with 8.7 Y/A, throwing 27 touchdowns to 1 interception.

Against Cover 4 this season, Jackson led the NFL with a 125.8 rating, completing 71.9% of his passes for 9.1 Y/A and a 7.8% touchdown rate.

Against man blitzes, Jackson’s 7.0 Y/A is 18th in the league while his 47.6% success rate dips to 12th.

It goes against the Bills' tendencies to go into heavy man coverage and send a high rate of blitzes.

Still, it is a pick-your-poison situation, and hanging back has not provided many answers for teams to this point when facing Baltimore.

Even after all that, you still have to contend with Jackson’s ability on the ground.

Jackson has run more in the postseason.

The only time he topped the 15 runs he had last week this season came back in Week 1.

He has rushed for at least 54 yards in six of his seven postseason appearances.

Josh Allen: In the Wild Card Round, Allen paced the position with 25.5 points, completing 20 of 26 passes (76.9%) for 272 yards (10.5 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns, rushing 8 times for 46 yards.

Allen had one of his worst games of the season when these teams played in Week 4.

He completed 55.2% of his passes (16 of 29) for 180 yards (6.2 Y/A) without a touchdown, rushing 5 times for 21 yards.

The following week, Allen then completed only 9 of 30 passes against Houston. 

Since then, he has been sixth in the league in yards per pass attempt (8.1 Y/A) and eighth in touchdown rate (5.8%).

In the Week 4 matchup, the Ravens went against their tendency this season.

The majority of teams have been playing Buffalo aggressively. 

Allen has seen the highest rate of man coverage of any quarterback this season on 34.6% of his snaps.

Against man coverage, Allen has thrown 21 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. 

His 12.4% touchdown rate against man coverage is third in the NFL.

Against zone coverage, Allen has thrown 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

His 1.2% touchdown rate against zone coverages is 31st in the league.

He still averages 8.2 Y/A (6th) against zone looks, but teams have had a higher success keeping Allen from lighting them up in the touchdown department.

Baltimore went that route in the first matchup.

They played zone coverage on 75.7% of Allen’s dropbacks in that game.

Allen faced a higher rate of zone coverage in just one other game this season, against Gus Bradley and the Colts.

That and the Baltimore games were the only games in which Allen did not throw a touchdown pass.

That ran against what the Ravens have done. 

It was their highest rate of zone coverage in a game this season.

That game also came when the Baltimore defense was considered lousy and one to target.

Over their past 8 games, the Ravens have allowed a 60.3% completion rate (4th), 6.2 Y/A (2nd), and a league-low 2.7% touchdown rate.

The transition of Kyle Hamilton to safety is often credited with that turnaround.

Still, it should also be acknowledged that the Ravens have faced Pittsburgh (three times), Houston, the Chargers, Philadelphia, the Giants, and Cleveland over that span.

None of those passing games have been stellar throughout the season.

Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Jalen Hurts are not nobodies, but we have also seen all those passers have their hiccups throughout 2024.

Based on 2024 peripherals, Allen is easily rungs ahead of those passers, but of course, the worst version of this defense had success in this matchup.

We saw Wilson still connect on some big plays last week, so something is still on the table here.

Even with their hot finish, the Ravens have still allowed a passing play of 20 or more yards on 9% of passing plays, which is 25th in the league.

This game being in Buffalo, also has weight.

In the first matchup, Baltimore pressured Allen on 44.1% of his dropbacks, his second-highest rate in a game this season.

Baltimore's pressure rate at home this season (7th) is 37.9%, compared to 29.1% on the road (27th).

Like Jackson, even after all of that, Allen can use his legs, which he is doing far more to close the season than when these teams played earlier.

Allen has rushed 7.9 times for 45.8 yards per game over the past 8 games, adding 9 rushing touchdowns.

Before that, he ran 4.8 times for 21.5 yards per game with 1 touchdown.

Running Back

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More Divisional Round Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:

MatchupTime
Texans @ Chiefs -- FREESaturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET
Commanders @ LionsSaturday -- 8 p.m. ET
Rams @ EaglesSunday -- 3 p.m. ET
Ravens @ BillsSunday -- 6:30 p.m. ET
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