The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Dolphins and Saints.
Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Spread | -6.0 | ||
| 17.75 | Implied Total | 23.75 | ||
| 15.0 | 31 | Points/Gm | 20.5 | 24 |
| 24.9 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 24.5 | 21 |
| 63.0 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 55.7 | 32 |
| 61.2 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.5 | 8 |
| 4.7 | 29 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 16 |
| 5.2 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 27 |
| 39.97% | 26 | Rush% | 42.41% | 19 |
| 60.03% | 7 | Pass% | 57.59% | 14 |
| 50.82% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 48.40% | 28 |
| 49.18% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 51.60% | 5 |
- The Dolphins are averaging 6.0 yards per play at home (6th) compared to 4.6 yards per play on the road (29th).
- The Dolphins are 0-4 when their opponent scores first.
- The Saints have scored first in one game this season, the fewest in the league.
- The Saints have led in four games this season, the fewest in the league.
- New Orleans has been outscored by a league-high 66 points in the first quarter this season (85-19).
- The Dolphins have allowed 1.89 points per drive over their past six games (11th) after allowing 3.01 points per drive in Weeks 1 through 5 (31st).
- Miami averages 2.27 passes per game of 20 or more yards, 28th in the league.
- The Saints average 1.82 passes of 20-plus yards per game, 31st.
- New Orleans has converted a league-low 34.5% (10 of 29) red zone trips into touchdowns.
- Over their past six games, Miami has converted 36.8% (7 of 19) of their red zone trips into touchdowns, 31st in the league.
- Miami has converted 29.9% of their third downs since Week 6, ahead of only the Browns (28.4%) and Falcons (26.7%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua comes out of his bye as the QB35 in points per game (11.9).
He has two weeks in the front half of weekly scoring this season.
In a full week of games, Tagovailoa is only a matchup-based option for 2QB gamers.
His two best weeks came against the NFC South this season, if you want something to chase.
He was the QB6 (24.2 points) against Atlanta and the QB9 (22.7 points) against Carolina.
The hard part of being aggressive with Tua is that Miami has been conservative on offense.
Miami has dropback rates of 48.2%, 43.1%, 39.6%, and 42.6% in their four wins this season.
They are 28th in neutral dropback rate (56.2%) and are facing an opponent that has led for the lowest rate of snaps in the league, which has pushed opponents to run at the second-highest rate in the league.
While Miami is throwing, this is not a matchup to be scared of.
The Saints are 26th in pressure rate (31.4%) and 29th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.518).
Tyler Shough: Shough has scored single-digit fantasy points in two of his three starts.
He averaged 5.7 yards per pass attempt on Sunday, failing to throw a touchdown with an interception.
He ran a season-high 7 times for 22 yards.
Shough is a back-end QB2 this week.
Shough’s most significant issue so far, outside of offensive attachment, is holding up under pressure.
He is 13 of 33 (39.4%) for 5.0 yards per attempt with 10 sacks when pressured.
Kept clean, Shough has completed 74.7% of his passes for 7.3 Y/A.
Miami is 10th in pressure rate over its past five games (37.3%), which has increased since the trade of Jaelan Phillips (39.2%).
At home, they are ninth in pressure rate (38.9%).
When Miami does not get home, Shough can find success.
Without pressure, Miami has allowed a 79% completion rate (31st), 7.6 Y/A (21st), and a 5.4% touchdown rate (18th).
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content, click below to learn more about our Fantasy Package.
Learn MoreMore Week 13 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Packers @ Lions | Thanksgiving |
| Chiefs @ Cowboys | Thanksgiving |
| Bengals @ Ravens | Thanksgiving |
| Bears @ Eagles | Black Friday |
| 49ers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Steelers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Giants @ Patriots | Monday Night Football |