The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Lions and Steelers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Spread | -7.0 | ||
| 21.25 | Implied Total | 28.25 | ||
| 24.0 | 13 | Points/Gm | 30.6 | 1 |
| 23.3 | 18 | Points All./Gm | 24.6 | 23 |
| 55.7 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 61.3 | 17 |
| 67.5 | 32 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.6 | 22 |
| 5.2 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.2 | 2 |
| 5.4 | 18 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 19 |
| 42.56% | 21 | Rush% | 43.47% | 17 |
| 57.44% | 12 | Pass% | 56.53% | 16 |
| 40.95% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 42.53% | 14 |
| 59.05% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 57.47% | 19 |
- Detroit has 29 plays of 30 or more yards on offense, 2nd in the NFL.
- Detroit has allowed a league-high 30 plays of 30-plus yards defensively.
- The Steelers have a play of 20 or more yards on 12.5% of their passing plays the past two weeks (7th) after a 6.8% rate prior (26th).
- The Lions are 29th in EPA as a pass defense over the past six weeks (-44.0).
- Detroit has allowed 110.4 fantasy points per game over that span, 31st in the league.
- The Steelers have a run of 10 or more yards on 9% of their attempts, 28th in the league.
- Detroit has a 37.8% success rate on rushing plays this season (28th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jared Goff: It was a tale of two halves for Goff on Sunday against the Rams.
He was on fire in the first half, connecting on 14 of 20 (70%) passes for 221 yards (11.1 Y/A) and 3 touchdowns.
Then things flipped as he completed 11 of 21 (52.4%) passes for 117 yards (5.6 Y/A) with no touchdowns after the break.
Fantasy gamers gladly cashed in a QB5 (25.5 points) week, but the playoff chances for Detroit took a blow.
Detroit is going to have to win out and need some help from Green Bay or Chicago (who they still play).
Goff heads back home, where he has once again played his best football.
In Detroit, Goff has completed 70.4% of his passes (5th) for 8.4 Y/A (5th) and a 6.7% touchdown rate (4th).
That has not always led to fantast points, however.
Goff is averaging 18.6 points per game at home (QB13).
He has been a QB1 scorer in three of his seven games at home this season.
The Steelers have been an up-and-down pass defense this season, but they have found their footing in the back half.
Over their past seven games, Pittsburgh has allowed a 61.1% completion rate (12th), 6.5 Y/A (11th), and a 4.1% touchdown rate (12th).
The status of T.J. Watt is still impactful, especially here.
With Watt off the field over that span, the Steelers have allowed a 70.9% completion rate (31st), a league-high 8.7 Y/A, and a 5.5% touchdown rate (20th).
On top of Watt’s status being up in the air, Nick Herbig left Monday night with a hamstring injury.
Herbig has 7 sacks and the most quarterback hits (13) on the team.
Watt leads the team with 8 sacks and is second in quarterback hits (12).
If both Watt and Herbig are out, it would be a significant loss for this pass rush.
With Herbig off the field this season, the Steelers have allowed a 7.1% touchdown rate (31st).
When Goff has operated without pressure, he has completed 78.8% of his passes (2nd), for 8.7 Y/A (4th), and an 8.7% touchdown rate (2nd).
If both Watt and Herbig are out for Sunday, Goff goes from being a floor-based QB1 to a high upside option.
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has played some of his best football this season over the past two weeks.
On Monday night, Rodgers completed 85.2% (23 of 27) of his passes for 224 yards (8.3 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.
That was the second-highest completion percentage for Rodgers in a game for his career and the highest since 2014.
Rodgers has thrown for over 8.0 yards per pass attempt in each of the past two weeks, the first time he has done that in back-to-back games this season.
Over the past two weeks, Rodgers is 9 of 15 (60%) for 246 yards (16.4 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns on throws 10 or more yards downfield.
He had completed only 38.7% (29 of 75) of those throws from Week 1 to Week 13, which was ahead of only Cam Ward (38%) and Caleb Williams (37.6%).
Gamers are unlikely to push Rodgers as a streamer in 1QB formats, but he does have appeal in 2QB formats.
This game should push Pittsburgh to score, and the Detroit secondary remains a significant concern.
Over the past six games, the Lions have allowed the most passing yardage in the NFL (272.3 yards per game).
Over that span, they have allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt (30th) and a 5.9% touchdown rate (28th).
They have played man coverage on 34.1% of their snaps over that span, fourth in the league.
Even against the Rams on Sunday, they were at 27.5%, 11th in the league.
That will be the matchup this week.
Do the Steelers have the playmakers to take advantage of an aggressive defense?
So far this season, Rodgers has completed 55.2% of his passes (17th) for 6.4 Y/A (17th) against man coverage compared to a 71.1% completion rate (9th) and 7.4 Y/A (17th) against zone coverages.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content, click below to learn more about our Fantasy Package.
Learn MoreMore Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ Seahawks | Thursday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Saturday -- 5 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Bears | Saturday -- 8:20 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Texans | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| 49ers @ Colts | Monday Night Football |