The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Divisional Round matchup between the Chiefs and Texans.
Find a breakdown of every Divisional Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Houston | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
8.0 | Spread | -8.0 | ||
16.75 | Implied Total | 24.75 | ||
22.4 | 16 | Points/Gm | 22.6 | 15 |
21.3 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 19.2 | 4 |
62.7 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 64.2 | 6 |
61.3 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 6 |
5.2 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 23 |
5.1 | 4 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 12 |
41.49% | 21 | Rush% | 41.25% | 24 |
58.51% | 12 | Pass% | 58.75% | 9 |
42.12% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 40.74% | 7 |
57.88% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 59.26% | 26 |
Against the Spread:
- Chiefs: 7-9-1
- Texans: 8-9-1
- Chiefs at Home: 3-5
- Texans Away: 4-4-1
- Chiefs: as Favorite: 6-7-1
- Texans as Underdog: 4-3
Game Overview
The Divisional Round kicks off with a rematch from Week 16 when Kansas City defeated Houston 27-19 at home.
Houston led that game 10-7 early in the second quarter but never led again the rest of the way.
We are in familiar territory here for the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 6-0 in the Divisional Round under Patrick Mahomes, going 5-0 at home.
The Chiefs won a league-high 11 games this year after trailing, winning seven times after trailing in the second half and five times after trailing in the fourth quarter.
For as many close calls as this Kansas City team had, they picked things up to close the year, winning (and covering) in their final three games playing their starters.
The Chiefs are 10th in points per drive (2.24) while Houston is 24th (1.81 points per drive), including the postseason.
Kansas City was excellent again on third downs this season, converting 48.5%. That is third in the league.
Avoiding third downs has been an issue for Houston.
Houston has faced third down on 49.6% of their sets of downs (25th) and third and long on 26.9% (30th).
Last week, they faced third and long on 35.5% of their set of downs, the highest rate for any team in the Wild Card Round.
When these teams played in Week 16, Houston faced third down on 48.1% of the sets of downs and only went 2-of-8 in converting third and long situations in that game.
They also lost the turnover battle 0-2.
You will not be surprised to hear that winning the turnover battle is arguably the most crucial standalone statistic in playoff football.
Teams that won the turnover battle last week went 4-0.
Since expansion, teams that have won the turnover battle in the Divisional Round are 56-15.
Teams without a turnover in this round with at least one takeaway on defense have a 30-6 record.
The Chiefs are seventh in the NFL in points allowed off turnovers (41) while Houston is 10th (53).
Defensively, Houston is eighth in the NFL in points allowed per drive (1.85) while the Chiefs are 13th (1.95).
The market has been right on the Chiefs this season.
Not necessarily from a perspective of covering the spread, but the Chiefs went 14-0 this season when favored and 1-2 as an underdog.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes had another “down” season this year based on the illustrious bar he set early in his career.
He set career lows in passing yards per game (245.5) and yards per pass attempt (6.8 Y/A).
He threw 26 passing touchdowns over 16 games, matching a career-low in 2019 when he played 14 games.
Mahomes took a career-high 36 sacks.
He was hit on 108 dropbacks this season, the most of his career.
Mahomes threw 30.8% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (only ahead of Tua Tagovailoa), his highest rate ever in a season.
Only 26.3% of his throws were 10 or more yards further downfield (ahead of only Gardner Minshew), his lowest career rate.
For fantasy purposes, he closed the year QB11 in points per game (17.7).
For as lackluster as his top-down stats look compared to his early-career production, Mahomes closed the year strongly.
He threw 18 touchdowns to 2 interceptions over his final 9 games.
From Week 9 on, he averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game, scoring 23.7 points and 26.0 points in the two games after Marquise Brown returned to the lineup.
With Brown available, you can strongly argue that this pass-catching unit is more talented than the unit we saw Kansas City push out in the postseason a year ago.
That includes the Week 16 game against Houston.
In that game, Mahomes only threw for 6.3 yards per pass attempt while Houston limited him to 260 yards passing, but he added 33 yards and a rushing touchdown to bolster his outing.
Houston threw several looks at Mahomes in that matchup.
They played Cover 1 on 40.4% of the snaps, the second-highest rate anyone has against Mahomes this season.
They played Cover 3 on 25.5% of the snaps and Cover 2 on 21.3%.
Mahomes had the most success when Houston went to those man coverage looks.
He threw for 8.2 Y/A against man coverage in that matchup compared to 5.6 Y/A against their Cover 3 looks and 4.4 Y/A against Cover 2.
Getting pressure has been massive for Houston’s pass defense this season.
Out of 209 defensive linemen with 100 or more snaps as a pass rusher, Will Anderson is eighth in the NFL in pressure rate (14.7%) while Danielle Hunter is 18th (13.9%).
When they have pressured the opposing passer, Houston has allowed a league-low 37.2% completion rate and 5.9 Y/A (12th).
They pressured Justin Herbert on 52.8% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate last weekend.
When they generated pressure, Herbert was 4-of-15 passing with 2 interceptions.
Houston pressured Mahomes on 37.8% of his dropbacks in that game, holding him to 5.9 Y/A on those plays with a sack.
If Houston has one bugaboo it is that they will allow big plays.
They have allowed a league-high 17 passing touchdowns outside the red zone (another last week).
As a byproduct, they have allowed a 5.5% touchdown rate (28th) and 11.8 yards per completion (28th) despite surrendering the lowest completion rate in the NFL (58%).
C.J. Stroud: After struggling in his second season, Stroud gave a positive performance to open the postseason.
He threw for 282 yards, his most in a game since Week 8.
His 8.5 yards per pass attempt were the highest since Week 5.
His 17.5 fantasy points were his most since Week 6.
His pass catchers helped out.
Houston had 120 yards after the catch, the most in a game for Stroud since Week 11.
The Texans put the ball in Stroud’s hands early, something we have not seen often this season.
In the first half, Stroud dropped back 73.1% of the time on early downs, his second-highest season rate.
His only game higher was when these teams played in Week 16.
Stroud ended that game against the Chiefs with a 71.1% dropback rate on early downs.
While Stroud’s performance in the Wild Card Round was favorably compared to the larger sample from this season, he still has only one 20-point game for fantasy.
Stroud ended his Week 16 games against the Chiefs completing 23 of 39 passes (59%) for 244 yards (6.3 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, adding 23 rushing yards (16.1 fantasy points).
The Chiefs are 11th in points allowed per pass attempt (0.402) and held Stroud below that (0.353) in that matchup.
Kansas City pressured Stroud on 48.8% of his dropbacks in that game.
Under pressure, Stroud was 7-of-19 (36.8%) for 112 yards (5.9 Y/A) with an interception and 2 sacks.
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Running Back
Joe Mixon: Mixon rushed 25 times for 106 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers on Saturday, catching 1-of-2 targets for 13 yards.
It was a mild day for Mixon until he closed the game down, rushing 10 times for 60 yards on the final full possession for the Texans, capped by a 17-yard touchdown run.
We highlighted this last week, but the opponent and game script have driven Mixon’s success and this running game's success to close the season.
Mixon has cleared 100 yards against the Cowboys, Jaguars, and Chargers over his final 8 games.
In the other five games, Mixon rushed 74 times for 174 yards (2.4 YPC) with only an 18.9% success rate and a run of 10 or more yards on 2.7% of those rushes. 27% failed to gain yardage.
That includes the Week 16 matchup between these teams in which Mixon rushed 14 times for 57 yards and caught 1-of-2 targets for 14 yards.
Mixon averaged only 0.29 yards before contact per rush in that matchup.
Kansas City has allowed only 3.8 YPC to running backs (2nd in the league) with a 65.2% success rate against those runs.
They smothered Mixon in that game before contact, and they only allowed 2.57 yards after contact per run this season, second in the league.
Chiefs RBs: The Kansas City backfield ended the season with a timeshare between Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt in the running game and Samaje Perine holding his role as the receiving back.
Pacheco fractured his leg in Week 2.
When he returned in Week 10, he rushed 49 times for 175 yards (3.6 YPC).
He posted a 34.7% success rate over that span with a gain of 10 or more yards on 2% of his runs.
He had 0 touchdowns and caught 5 passes for 25 yards on 46.2% of the backfield touches.
Pacheco picked up a rib injury that forced him to leave Week 17.
He has had over two weeks off and is expected to play on Saturday, but his usage and upside remain a question mark.
Hunt rushed 45 times for 151 yards (3.4 YPC) over the five games he shared with Pacheco.
Hunt posted a 33.3% success rate with an explosive run on 6.7% of his rushes.
While also lacking in the efficiency department, Hunt had 2 rushing touchdowns from this backfield during that stretch. Pacheco did not have a carry inside of the five-yard line.
Perine only rushed 4 times over that period but caught 9 passes for 146 yards in those five games.
Houston has played the run well.
They have allowed 3.9 YPC to running backs (3rd).
They are 10th in yards allowed before contact on running back runs (1.13) with a 64.1% success rate (10th).
When these teams played in Week 16, Hunt had the better results, rushing 11 times for 55 yards and a touchdown while Pacheco rushed 9 times for 26 yards.
Hunt tacked on 2 receptions for 24 yards while Pacheco caught 1 pass for -1 yards.
Perine caught 3 passes for 50 yards in that game.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins: Collins had a big game on Saturday, catching 7-of-8 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown.
That was only the second game in which Collins reached 100 yards since returning to the lineup in Week 11, but that was his fifth trip to the end zone over those 8 games.
Collins has been targeted on 32.4% of his routes without Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs on the field, averaging 2.76 yards per route run.
Houston will need a big game from Collins on Saturday, and the Chiefs are well aware of that.
Kansas City has done a good job limiting the top option in their opponent’s passing game.
They are fourth in points allowed to opposing WR1 targets (13.3 per game) and second in allowing 7.1 yards per target to those pass catchers.
When these teams played in Week 16, Collins caught 7-of-10 targets for 60 yards.
At least Collins should get a handful of chances to make plays against man coverage.
Kansas City played man coverage on 30.8% of passing plays this season, 11th in the league.
They were on par with that rate in the Week 16 matchup, playing man coverage on 29.3% of the passes.
Collins has been targeted on 35.1% of his routes against man coverage this season compared to 25.9% against zone coverage.
In that Week 16 matchup, Collins was targeted on 40% of his routes against man coverage, posting 59 of his 60 yards.
He had only 1 yard against zone, drawing a target on 24% of his routes.
Xavier Worthy: Worthy ended his rookie season catching 59 of 98 targets (60.2%) for 638 yards (10.8 yards per catch) and 6 touchdowns.
He rushed 20 times for 104 yards and another 3 scores.
Worthy’s 1.25 yards per route run ranked 11th among all first-year wide receivers to run 100 or more routes.
Even though Worthy did not stuff the stat sheet overall, he closed the season positively.
It was not at the same level as Rashee Rice a year ago, but Worthy played a more significant role in the passing game and progressed down the stretch.
Over the final 7 games of the season, Worthy led the team in receptions (39), receiving yards (392), and touchdowns (3).
He had 55 targets in those games (20.8%), just two fewer than Travis Kelce.
He was targeted on 23.2% of his routes with 1.65 yards per route run after receiving a target on 15.8% beforehand with 0.90 yards per route prior.
Worthy caught at least 4 passes in all seven of those games after catching 4 passes in a game just one time before Week 11.
That includes catching 7-of-11 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown when these teams played in Week 16.
Worthy also rushed 3 times for 10 yards.
He ended the season playing 35% of his snaps from the slot over that period.
That is where Houston has had issues allowing production to receivers, which spilled into the postseason.
Houston has allowed 8.5 yards per target (22nd) and a league-high 11.5% touchdown rate to slot receivers.
They allowed 99 yards and a touchdown via the slot on Saturday.
When these teams played in Week 16, Worthy played a season-high 56.4% of his snaps from the slot.
In that game, he only had 35 yards from the slot but was targeted 8 times with 5 receptions and a touchdown.
DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins averaged 4.1 receptions for 43.7 yards per game with 4 touchdowns over his 10 games with the Chiefs.
He was targeted on 23.7% of his routes over that stretch but was only on the field for 56.5% of the team dropbacks in his games.
The Chiefs could have been slow-playing Hopkins to prepare him for a more significant role in the postseason, but that will require some guesswork if they aggressively play him this weekend.
This also is a tougher matchup since he played 74.6% of his snaps with Kansas City on the outside.
Houston has allowed a 59.1% catch rate (7th), 7.9 yards per target (7th), and a 3.6% touchdown rate (6th) to outside receivers where Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter have patrolled.
Hopkins was on the field for 64% of the dropbacks when these teams played in Week 16, playing 75% of his snaps out wide.
He caught 4-of-4 targets in the game for 37 yards.
The one thing Hopkins has going for him is potential touchdown equity.
Since joining the team, he has a team-high 26.7% of the targets in the end zone.
The next closest player over that stretch is at 16.7%.
Marquise Brown: Brown was only active for two games to close the season.
He only ran a route on 33.3% and 48.7% of the dropbacks in those games, but he was targeted on 44.1% of his routes with 2.68 yards per route run.
He had games of 5-45-0 (8 targets) against the Texans and 4-46-0 (7 targets) against the Steelers.
Brown will indeed have an increased role in the postseason, but his fantasy value depends on how much of an increase he receives.
In the last game that Brown played in Week 17, when he spiked to just under 49% of the dropbacks, Justin Watson fell to 25.6% of the dropbacks (his lowest rate of the season), but JuJu Smith-Schuster was on the field for 53.8%.
In the games after Brown’s return, Kansas City played 11 personnel on 55.7% and 62.8% of their snaps after having a 45.4% rate before Brown’s return.
Before Brown's return, they had only run 11 personnel on more than 55.7% of their plays twice all season, the last time with a higher rate coming in Week 4.
Houston WRs: This was still a flat rotation after Nico Collins on Saturday.
John Metchie matched Collins with 8 targets, but he only ran 25 routes (64% of the dropbacks) and posted only 28 yards on those targets.
Robert Woods ran 16 routes (41%), catching 2-of-4 targets for 22 yards.
Xavier Hutchinson ran 16 routes (41%), catching his lone target for 34 yards.
Diontae Johnson ran 14 routes (36%), catching his lone target for 12 yards, but he was waived on Tuesday.
The Chiefs were sticky against wideouts this season, allowing 7.4 yards per target (3rd) and 11.4 yards per catch (3rd).
We also will follow the status of Jaylen Watson, who has not played since Week 7 due to a broken ankle.
Watson was designated to return from IR to end the season but was never officially activated.
With Watson on the field to open this season, the Chiefs allowed a 54.8% completion rate and 6.3 yards per target to wide receivers.
If there is any matchup signal here for a pass catcher to step up outside Collins, it would be for Metchie.
Metchie did not play in the first game between these teams, but he played 50% of his snaps from the slot last week.
53.4% of the receptions allowed by Kansas City to receivers were from the slot, the highest rate in the league.
They allowed a 7.3% touchdown rate (23rd) and 8.1 yards per target to slot receivers (17th).
Tight End
Travis Kelce: At age 35, Kelce ended this season with 823 yards, his fewest in a season.
After averaging 65.6 yards per game in what was considered a down season in 2023, he averaged 51.4 yards per game this season.
His 8.5 yards per catch and 3 touchdowns were career lows.
But he did close the season on a high note, catching 8-of-11 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown when he last played on Christmas Day.
Pairing that with how Kelce finished the year last postseason after a down regular season (for his standards), we won’t write off the potential that he can close his career with another good stretch of games.
Last postseason, Kelce rattled off games of 7-71-0, 5-75-2, 11-116-1, and 9-93-0.
This season, the Chiefs have a deeper pool of pass catchers than last postseason, when it was essentially only Kelce and Rashee Rice.
Kelce and Rice combined for 52.6% of the team targets last postseason.
Kansas City should be expected to be more diverse this postseason, with DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown at wide receiver and Noah Gray still available to chip in.
This is not a glowing matchup, either.
Houston has allowed a league-low 63.9% catch rate to tight ends, allowing 6.2 yards per target (4th) and 9.7 yards per catch (11th) to the position.
However, they have allowed a 6.7% touchdown rate to the position (27th), keeping the lights on for scoring upside.
Kelce caught 5-of-7 targets for 30 yards when these teams played in Week 16.
Dalton Schultz: Schultz was on the field for 79.5% of the dropbacks on Saturday, catching 2-of-4 targets for 23 yards.
While that is an extension of his regular-season results, we know Schultz will be on the field, and he has some matchup signals here to draw opportunities.
Teams targeted their tight ends 25.1% of the time against the Chiefs (7th highest).
In those targets, Kansas City allowed a league-high 8.8 yards per target to the position.
When these teams met in Week 16, Schultz received 21.6% of the team's targets, catching 5 of 8 targets for 45 yards and a touchdown.
He had just one other touchdown all season.
Noah Gray: Gray had a minor breakout this season, setting career-highs in targets (49), receptions (40), receiving yards (437) and touchdowns (5).
A grain of salt for only a two-game sample size, but Marquise Brown‘s return did impact Gray.
Gray only caught 2 passes for 16 yards in those games, running a route on 40% and 38.5% of the team dropbacks.
The Chiefs ran 12 personnel on 28.6% and 32.8% of their snaps in those games after utilizing it on 40.8% of their offensive snaps over the 9 games before Brown returned.
If taking a flyer on Gray, you are hunting for a touchdown.
Gray has 15.4% of the team targets in the end zone this season, which is third (and higher than Travis Kelce) on the team.
More Divisional Round Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
Matchup | Time |
---|---|
Texans @ Chiefs -- FREE | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
Commanders @ Lions | Saturday -- 8 p.m. ET |
Rams @ Eagles | Sunday -- 3 p.m. ET |
Ravens @ Bills | Sunday -- 6:30 p.m. ET |