The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Chicago Bears as Road favorites for this TNF Showdown slate. For a breakdown of this matchup, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.
At QB, I’m interested in Tom Brady but not very excited about Nick Foles, who is a bit overpriced given his production so far and this tough matchup.
Ronald Jones is looking like a top play if Leonard Fournette does miss as expected. (Update: Fournette is active for tonight's game, which could cut into Jones's value.)
I think Ke'Shawn Vaughn offers great leverage off of Jones, who will certainly be one of the most popular plays. If Jones ends up in the doghouse again, or Vaughn gets a larger share of the workload, he could smash at his low salary. Both Tampa Bay RBs could appear in the optimal lineup together, just as the Packers' backfield did on Monday night. David Montgomery is the only Bears RB I’m interested in. He has a tough matchup but his workload is secure and his targets have been on the rise.
Chris Godwin and Justin Watson are doubtful, while Mike Evans is listed as questionable but expected to start. He projects an awesome play but I wouldn’t go all in because he could certainly reaggravate his injury and miss some of the game. This happened to him last week and we just saw it happen with Julio Jones on the Monday night showdown slate.
It’s worth building a group of lineups with no Evans and the depth WRs boosted. Scotty Miller is the high for option and Tyler Johnson is expected to be the WR3, though he has yet to receive a target despite playing at least 30% of the offensive snaps in each of the past two games. For Chicago, I really like Allen Robinson and think he will be rostered less overall than Evans. I have very little interest in Anthony Miller due to his dwindling snaps, and much prefer Darnell Mooney who is trending upward.
Jimmy Graham is getting valuable opportunities in the red zone and has been converting some of them, but he is dependent on TDs to pay off. I really don’t like Rob Gronkowski at this point in his career and would much prefer Cameron Brate who should see an increase rule now that O.J. Howard is out for the season.
Both defenses are near the top of the league and I will be using each. It makes sense to be overweight on Chicago to continue with the strategy of going over the field on the lower owned underdog, due to the unpredictable nature of DST scoring.
(Updated) Ownership:
- Evans, Robinson, RoJo, and Brady are projected to be the most popular but also have the highest ceilings and solid floors. If using any of these at CPT/MVP find a way to differentiate elsewhere.
- Mooney, Brate, and Scotty Miller could be leverage, especially if they get a TD. I’ll be overweight on each.
DK Values:
- Tyler Johnson ($200)
DK Leverage:
- KeShawn Vaughn ($1,000)
DK Build Guide:
- Max 1 DST/K
- Max 1 of Gronk/Brate
- Max 1 MME dart throw per team
- If CPT DST, negative boost opposing QB/K/DST
- If CPT QB, pair 2+ of their receivers (WR/TE)
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE, boost or pair QB
FD Values:
- Tyler Johnson ($5,000)
- Ronald Jones ($10,500)
FD Leverage:
- Darrell Mooney ($7,000)
FD Build Guide:
- No K MVP
- No TE at MVP
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Max 1 QB (Single QB wins far more)
- If WR CPT, boost QB
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.