Ten years ago, I attempted to develop a computer program which would accurately predict outcomes of NFL games and thus, the ability to spot "value" in the lines released by Vegas. Spurred by my love for the game and my competitive nature, and by years of watching and studying the NFL, I already had an uncanny knack for intuitively looking at two teams and predicting which team would cover the spread. During the time I was creating the program, I was picking games on my own using other non-computer based methods with a high degree of certainty, both ATS and totals. When I finally perfected my computer program, and combined its precision with my own abilities to personally select high probability plays, those who followed my plays reaped the rewards.
The process was a five year journey of testing and retooling my program. After several years of development, in 2005, I finally came to a point where I believed I created a legitimate program which would provide a high degree of success. While putting the final touches on the software through the winter of 2005 and the spring of 2006, I entered an online competition for the NFL playoffs. The rules were simple: Wager up to $500 per play and wager on as many NFL playoff games (sides and totals) as you desire. The contestant with the most money after the Super Bowl wins the competition. There were over 6,000 other contestants in the competition.
I did not use my computer program for the competition, I used my own personal handicapping methods to decide which games had value and with which team (or total) the value was located. I cruised to a 15-1 (94%) record through the Conference Championships and positioned myself in first place heading into the Super Bowl. An opportunity presented itself to "lock" up First Place before the game even started, but in order to do so I would have to play the side I wanted (Pittsburgh) but play the over instead of the under (the under being my preferred play). I took the opportunity for a sure thing and won with the Steelers and lost with the over, finishing the competition with a record of 16-2 (89%) and a bankroll of +$6,630.
To this day, I still hold the distinction of having the highest win percentage in any contest (multiple sports) run by this company from its inception in 1999 thru the present competitions of 2010. There have been hundreds of thousands of contestants who have competed in various competitions run by this company across 9 different professional and college sports since 1999, and no one has ever won a contest with a winning percentage as high as my 89%.
During the offseason in 2006, I polished up my program and put it through its first season in 2006-2007. I began posting some of my plays on various online messageboards. You may view my detailed records on the records tab, but needless to say, the 2006 season was a huge success, with every single type of system play hitting over 60%, and my ATS and Overs plays hitting 77% and higher. In 2007-2008, I expanded my system further to look for more opportunities to spot value, and began posting my full system output (all plays) for free on several messageboards. The 2007 season saw 7 of my 10 "types" of plays hitting over 60%, but everything was overshadowed by "The Year of the Overs". My program was in a zone when it came to predicting overs. It released 22 plays of this type during the season, and lost just one, compiling a record of 21-1 (95%).
In 2008-2009, I was spurred by several associates to share my plays "newsletter style". These gentlemen challenged me to trim down the number of games I played each week and to only release the highest percentage games I could, and share them via email. I took the challenge with a great seriousness and allowed sign-ups for the email newsletter on my blog. I shared what I called my "Personal Plays" and started out the season going 17-4 (81%) thru Week 4 . At this point things got even more serious. My computer program and my website were discussed in multiple episodes of a national sports radio show hosted by Steve Czaban. Steve even discussed my capabilities with the infamous Brandon Lang on air.
Due to increased exposure, I began to receive many requests and signups. I continued to provide my free newsletter for another 2 months for no charge (thru Week 9 of the regular season). At which point, due to demands put on my schedule and the number of people I was assisting, I launched this website to have more control over the content (vs. the blog) and was able to avoid sending out plays via email to all the members. In addition to the "Personal Plays" I shared all my computer system plays and began charging a nominal fee for the plays. And the rest is history. I completed the 2008-2009 season hitting a combined 67% (80-40) when including my Personal Plays, my Overs and my Unders. I increased my postseason record to a stunning 44-16 (73%) over 4 seasons, which included(just two days after the Super Bowl teams were set) sharing my computer's projected score for the game, which was accurately predicting that the Steelers would beat the Cardinals by 4 points, but would fail to cover the 7 point spread. The Steelers won by 4 points exactly, 27-23, and I went 7-3 (70%) in all Super Bowl related plays that day.
In 2009-10, I continued to look for additional ways to "attack the spreads". Sportsbooks raised the total lines issued, due to them predicting higher scoring games. As a result, my Overs system produced just four plays, but it swept going 4-0. Frustrated by the lack of plays being made, I realized that I had an opportunity to use my same extremely accurate Overs system to predict Unders. The theory was simple: Books over adjust the total number higher because they don't want to be beat by games going Over the total. As a result, my Overs system does not produce as many plays. But, because of this over adjustment, there must now be value in certain unders. Thus, I took my Overs system and refined what I called "Unders Subset" plays. These were plays not generated by the Unders system, but generated by the Overs system on games where the books had raised the total too high. Doing some backtesting, I calculated that this "Unders Subset" system I had just created went 23-10 (70%) in 2008. I began sharing the plays with my clients, and overall in 2009 these plays went 20-7 (74%). I had now created the "missing link" and the third component to my totals system. Unders Subsets were introduced, and since 2008 have gone 43-17 (72%).
The complete 2009-10 season was a success, though a rough 4 week stretch during weeks 8-11 brought the overall regular season record down. From weeks 1-7 and 12-17 the computer went 43-23 (65%), with the computer totals posting only one losing week and the computer ATS posting just two losing weeks. However, including the rough 4 weeks, the computer hit 56% for the regular season. All plays combined (personal plays + computer plays) moved down from 61% outside the week 8-11 period to 54% total for the entire season. Still profitable, but not nearly as strong as I would have liked to see. Much like the 2008-09 postseason, the computer did not disappoint in the 2009-10 postseason. Overall for the Playoffs on regular plays (sides/totals) I went 7-4-2 (64%) which includes a perfect 2-0 on the Super Bowl. The computer predicted the New Orleans Saints, a 5 to 6 point underdog, would win outright over the Indianapolis Colts. I completed my analysis and, in a very detailed writeup, shared with my clients a full week before the game why I and my computer believed the Saints were the right side. The Saints won by 14 points and I also took the Under which hit, and I ended my playoffs and my season on a very high note. It marked the second straight season that the computer was "dead on" with its Super Bowl prediction.
In 2010-11, I threw down the gauntlet on the handicapping industry and offered a never seen or heard guarantee - if my personal plays did not beat 58%, I would give a 100% refund. The reasons for doing so were simple: From my perspective, I knew my computer totals were off the charts. These plays are bet and bet in large amounts by me and my clients. But my personal plays were off a 50% season in 2009, completely unacceptable for me. They still were 59% for 3 years (including that 50% year) but I knew I could beat 58% and decided if I didn't, I didn't want to be paid. From my clients perspective, I knew they had never seen such a bold guarantee because other services out there are too scared, too greedy, or too unable to offer such a guarantee. But the fact is, sports handicapping services SHOULD be held to a higher standard. There are far too many scumbags out there, selling plays for a high price that under perform. They want to count their clients money rather than be held accountable for the results.
I beat 58% on personal plays in 2010. But the highlight of the 2010 season, not surprisingly, again came from my overs program. 6 full plays, a perfect 6-0, running the record to 2 years without loss, and a 5 year mark of 83%. But I was not satisfied with 6 plays, so I decided to share the system's "leans". These are games where the computer leans to the over (finds value there) but not strong enough to make it a full play. In an absolute remarkable run, any game where the computer found a value of +4 or more (i.e. total is 37, my computer predicts 41 points, difference of +4) on a posted total went 16-0 (100%). 6 of these were the Overs, and the other 10 were my overs "leans" that I shared w/ clients. The leans overall went 40-22 (65%).
The other major development in the 2010 season was an unprecedented rule change mid season issued by Roger Goodell. The enforcement of historically "legal" hits resulted in far fewer games going under the total. As such, my unders program struggled in 2010. However, I always believe in being "on the ball" and devising a way to win. So I tweaked the program after I realized the extreme impact of these rules changes. To see the impact of the rules changes: Prior to the hit rules changes (wk 7), my unders hit 58% with zero losing weeks. After I "fixed/tweaked" the program to account for Goodell's mid-season rules changes, they hit 64% with zero losing weeks.
In 2011-12, the program got off to a very fast start. My NFL totals delivered 7 out of 8 winning weeks to start the season, and it was not until week 12 which they suffered their 2nd losing week of the season. From weeks 1 thru 11, overall plays were 30 games above .500: 97-67 (59%). From weeks 12-17, all plays issued fell 3 games below .500 at 46-49. The computer totals struggled, while personal plays surged, winning 6 of 7 weeks to close the season and going 30-19 (61%) during that span. The Super Bowl saw yet another very detailed writeup, featuring my longest and most detailed yet: 6 pages of .pdf facts and information delivered to clients 1 week before the Super Bowl. In it, I selected the NY Giants +3, as my computer program believed the game would be close and very much a tossup, and a teaser of NYG and the Under. Both plays won and the computer program continued its success in Super Bowls. In addition, 2011 was the first year I unveiled a college football totals program, and it went 96-64 (60%) during the regular season and including itís full plays during bowls, went 100-68 (60%) overall.
Betting an average of 0.9 units/bet in the NFL and 1.1 units/bet in CFB, I won 49.2 units from late November thru early February, which is an extremely difficult task to accomplish over an extended period of time. My overall record for the 2012-13 season was a profit of +48.7 units, hitting 56% in all plays issued.
The 2012-13 season was a complete 180 from 2011 in terms of the start and close of the season. My college totals were in full swing, coming off of a stellar 60% in their inaugural 2011 campaign. In both the NFL and CFB combined, I started the season winning 5 of the first 6 weeks, but this hot/fast start was almost entirely due to the CFB totals, which started the season 47-28 thru week 6. I hit my cold patch from weeks 7-11, posting 3 losing weeks during that 5 week stretch. But that cold streak basically cooled off my YTD record: as 2012 was the first year I advised specific units for both NFL and CFB and tracked them, I was up exactly 0.5 units thru week 11 and sitting on a 50% YTD record. It was a turning point. I knew that in the prior season, I was up big before cooling off starting at week 12, and heading into week 12 of 2012, I was either going to get hot again and end the season in a big way, or I was going to risk my first losing season in 7 as a handicapper. I determined I would finish the 2012 season as hot as possible, and from the Thanksgiving games in November thru the Super Bowl in February, I had one of those runs every bettor or handicapper dream about. I went 54-30 (64%) in the NFL, winning 7 of 9 weeks thru the Super Bowl, and I went 53-22 (71%) in CFB totals, winning every single week thru the National Championship game. In total, that's a 107-52 (67%) close to the season in all plays, and when it mattered the most, in the NFL playoffs and CFB Bowls, I went a combined 40-21 (66%).
The 2013-14 season was very similar to prior seasons: a blazing hot start (11-2 in the NFL), zero sub-.500 weeks thru early October, followed by a 3 week cold period. I then closed the season from week 9 thru 17 posting 7 winning weeks and only 2 losing weeks. And recording yet another epic run from Thanksgiving onward: