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Super Bowl 60 Odds and Preview

Super Bowl 60 is expected to be a good one between the Seattle Seahawks (16-3) and the New England Patriots (17-3). It's a historic matchup in ways that may surprise you: it's the first time since the 1970 merger that both Super Bowl teams rank in the top four in scoring offense and scoring defense, making them very balanced teams. It's also the first time two teams who lost in Week 1 are meeting in the Super Bowl, but that's a game the Patriots would prefer people forget after accusations of using their “soft schedule” (it is statistically the easiest one in the 32-team era) to get to this game, including an AFC Championship Game win at Denver against a backup quarterback (Jarrett Stidham) throwing his first passes in two seasons.

But with one grand performance, the 2025 Patriots can put all of that behind them with a win here. The Seahawks can also get some revenge for Super Bowl XLIX by beating the Patriots to another ring here behind second-year coach Mike Macdonald, who is from Boston. He'll also try to rewrite the legacy of Sam Darnold, who was at his lowest point in the NFL in 2019, when he threw four interceptions and was caught on camera saying he was “seeing ghosts” in a game against the Patriots. Darnold has already overcome his demons against the Rams, but now he is the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP this Sunday night.

He's also been the No. 1 reason people are picking the Patriots and that defense to win, so it creates a very compelling matchup between two franchises who aren't unfamiliar with the big stage, but many of their players and coaches who will take the field Sunday night are new to this pressure.

Some Super Bowls are not that hard to break down, and this really feels like one of those, despite the levels of uncertainty with these new contenders who both missed the playoffs last year. Which offense and which quarterback minimizes mistakes? That's going to be the team that wins this game.

If you're the Seahawks, you feel good that you haven't turned the ball over in three straight games, but people who know about turnover regression know that's not necessarily a great place to be going into this one. The Seahawks have also been playing rematches against the Rams and 49ers, who both had injuries and weren't playing as well defensively down the stretch. The Patriots are playing very well on defense, allowing their most yards and passing yards way back in Week 1, and they have eight takeaways in the playoffs alone. Not a great sign for a Seattle team that was minus-3 in turnover margin in the regular season, which isn't what you'd expect from a 14-3 top seed.

So, that's why Darnold needs to feel as comfortable as possible with a defense he hasn't seen in years. He also probably can't expect a big game on the ground from Kenneth Walker, as both running games are facing elite run defenses, putting more pressure on the quarterbacks. Darnold also isn't the scrambler that Drake Maye is, so that leaves the Seahawks at another disadvantage. The Seahawks have the newly minted Offensive Player of the Year in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but the Patriots will try their best to take him away with corner Christian Gonzalez and effective double teams. Still, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak did a great job all year of finding ways to get JSN open, so good luck with that strategy. That might still clear the way for Cooper Kupp to have a big night, the Super Bowl 56 MVP for the Rams.

Kupp is one of the few players in this game with Super Bowl experience. One of the others was Milton Williams, who led the way with 2.0 sacks for the Eagles in last year's domination of the Chiefs. He'll have to play a big role here against Darnold and the running game as the Patriots likely can't afford to win a shootout. Not with an offense that's averaging 18.0 points per game in the playoffs, the fewest of any Super Bowl team in 60 years. They even had a 12-yard touchdown drive in Denver, so that number can be misleading, as it also includes a pick-six against Houston in the AFC Divisional Round.

Drake Maye is going to have to play better after taking 15 sacks and fumbling six times in the postseason alone. He's the only quarterback in NFL history to win multiple playoff games in the same season when he took 5.0 sacks, and he's done it three weeks in a row. That's not sustainable. But if he can avoid turning the ball over, he stands a chance as long as he can hit some deep balls in clear weather, use his legs for key scrambles against the No. 1 defense on third down, and convert in the red zone. But scoring will likely be in short supply.

At the end of the day, which quarterback makes those sacks and turnovers hurt his team the least? That's who will find a way to win this game, and don't be surprised if the MVP goes to a defensive player or any non-quarterback position.

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