Here it is – the FINAL 2021 mock draft! Last chance to get your bets in so I will include a pertinent line for each pick (all odds are as of 4/28). If you want to see what I think a team needs or more description of a particular player you can find those aspects addressed in the previous iterations.
Pick #1 Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Previous Mock – Lawrence
Still listed at -10000
Pick #2 New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Previous Mock – Wilson
Now tied for biggest lock on the board at -10000
Pick #3 San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Previous Mock – Jones
As of this writing, which is 24 hours before the draft, Jones is still the solid favorite at -305. It’s not something I would bet with some of the reporting out there but I do think he is still the most likely pick here.
Pick #4 Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Previous Mock – Pitts
Still probably taking calls, still probably staying put. Pitts is now firmly the favorite to be the first non-QB selected at -305.
Pick #5 Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Previous Mock – Chase
I am keeping Chase here not only in back-to-back weeks for the first time but also more importantly, for the final time. He is now -200 under 5.5 draft position.
Pick #6 Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Previous Mock – Waddle
A team to keep an eye on during the draft as they could potentially move back. But if not, they add another weapon and former teammate for Tua Tagovailoa. Wide Receiver is favored to be the first position selected by Miami at -150.
Trade Pick #7 New England Patriots – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio St
Previous Mock – Fields
I’ve had this for the past two versions and am going to continue to speak it into existence. It makes too much sense for both teams. Patriots reporters who don’t give out too much information have confirmed that the Patriots have made calls into the top 10 to gauge the asking price. Patriots are the favorites to draft Fields at +200.
Pick #8 Carolina Panthers – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Previous Mock – Sewell
Sewell is -500 to be the first offensive lineman selected and fills their biggest need.
Pick #9 Denver Broncos – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Previous Mock – Trey Lance, QB
Denver is a team to watch for a trade and could still be open to taking a quarterback, even after the Teddy Bridgewater acquisition. If they stand pat and Slater is still on the board, he’s the pick. Slater under 9.5 is -112.
Pick #10 Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Previous Mock – Surtain
Still a perfect match of talent, need, and fit. Surtain under 10.5 is -159.
Pick #11 New York Giants – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn St.
Previous Mock – Rashawn Slater, OT
Giants rely on defensive line coach Sean Spencer who recruited Parsons to Penn St. to clear up some of the off-field concerns and take arguably the most talented defensive player in the draft. Parsons is still the heavy favorite to be the first linebacker taken in the draft at -400 but there is value in the Giants selecting a linebacker first at +500.
Pick #12 Philadelphia Eagles – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Previous Mock – Horn
One of the hottest names going into draft night and this is most likely his floor. Horn under 12.5 is -148.
Pick #13 Los Angeles Chargers – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
Previous Mock – Christian Darrisaw, OT
Chargers still address the offensive line but with the news of Darrisaw having core surgery in the offseason, they go with the safer and maybe one of the safest picks in all the draft in Vera-Tucker. Chargers to select an offensive lineman with their first pick is -182.
Pick #14 Minnesota Vikings – Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami
Previous Mock – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL
A team that could be looking to trade out especially if they can’t get a top offensive lineman, instead take arguably the best pass rusher in the draft in Phillips to help improve a pass rush that ranked 28th in the league in sacks last year. Vikings to select a defensive lineman with their first pick is +175.
Trade Pick #15 Detroit Lions – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Previous Mock – Micah Parsons, LB
New Lions GM Brad Holmes said he wanted to put an impetus on high-intangible culture guys more than their measurables which is a good thing for Smith who checks off all the intangible boxes but only weighed in at 166lbs. Lions to select a wide receiver with their first pick is favored at +140.
Trade Pick #16 Chicago Bears – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota St.
Previous Mock – DeVonta Smith, WR
Lance could certainly go earlier than this but if he starts to slide into this range the Bears make the move to go up and get him at a more reasonable price than where many project him to go. If he makes it past Denver, this is certainly a plausible scenario so I think there is value at Lance to be drafted by Chicago at +800.
Pick #17 Las Vegas Raiders – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
Previous Mock – Owusu-Koramoah
Raiders inject some speed and playing making into their defense that has been missing during the Gruden/Mayock era. I like the Raiders to select a linebacker with their first pick at +225 as this could also be a landing spot for Parsons if he were to fall.
Pick #18 Miami Dolphins – Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
Previous Mock – Paye
A versatile player that fits into what Brian Flores is looking for on defense. The over/under on Paye is 17.5 -112.
Pick #19 Washington Football Team – Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
Previous Mock – Zaven Collins, LB
Another team that will be lurking if a QB slips into the teens but they go with one of the hottest names in the draft process in Jamin Davis. Linebacker is now the favorite position to be selected first by Washington at +175.
Pick #20 Arizona Cardinals – Zaven Collins
Previous Mock – Chicago Bears – Tevin Jenkins, OT
Arizona is able to move back a few spots, pick up additional draft capital, and still get a guy they have been rumored for weeks to be targeting. Collins under 25.5 -112.
Pick #21 Indianapolis Colts – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Previous Mock – Jaelan Phillips, Edge
The Colts are the beneficiaries of Darrisaw dropping out of the top 20 on the injury news and will happily take a chance on what could be their new starting left tackle. Colts to select an offensive lineman with their first pick is favored at +130.
Pick #22 Tennessee Titans – Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
Previous Mock – Caleb Farley, CB
There are just too many medical red flags for Farley, so the Titans turn to a position and school where they had great success just two years ago with A.J. Brown in Elijah Moore. Moore has been one of the biggest risers during the draft process and is now -335 to be drafted in the first round.
Pick #23 New York Jets – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Previous Mock – Azeez Ojulari, Edge
I have long said that I don’t think a running back should be selected in the first round and that I would continue to fight as long as I could. Well, the time has come where I have to finally wave the white flag. This is due to a combination of talent, fit, but also position scarcity. Etienne is -125 to be selected in the first round.
Pick #24 Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Previous Mock – Alex Leatherwood, OL
Yes, not one but two running backs in the first round. This is one of those cases where you have to put your personal feelings aside because at the end of the day we just want to have the most accurate mock draft as possible. One way to do that is to decipher what’s going on when there is this much smoke about a certain player and team. Is it a smokescreen or is there actual fire there? This seems like actual fire. Steelers to select a running back with their first pick is favored at -125.
Pick #25 Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehrig-Woodard, S, TCU
Previous Mock – Moehrig-Woodard
I did say last week that I thought Jacksonville might be able to wait until the top of the second round to take him. But with the Ravens now having two picks behind them before they pick again, that may no longer be possible so they play it safe and take him here. Moehrig-Woodard is -335 to be selected in the first round but I like safety to be the second position selected by Jacksonville at +400.
Pick #26 Cleveland Browns – Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
Previous Mock – Newsome
Cleveland doesn’t have too many question marks on their starting roster, but the outside starting corner opposite Denzel Ward is one of them. The odds for cornerback to be the first position selected by Cleveland has dropped from +400 to +275
Pick #27 Baltimore Ravens – Tevin Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma St.
Previous Mock – Rashod Bateman, WR
After officially trading Orlando Brown, the Ravens look to solidify their right tackle position for the long term with Jenkins. Offensive lineman to be drafted first by Baltimore is +450.
Pick #28 New Orleans Saints – Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
Previous Mock – Elijah Moore, WR
This has been rumored to be the landing spot for Caleb Farley but there are just too many medical red flags now so Saints go with another player at the same position that has been moving in the opposite direction of Farley on draft boards. Cornerback to be selected first by New Orleans is favored at +200.
Pick #29 Green Bay Packers – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Previous Mock – Kadarius Toney, WR
The Packers never drafting a wide receiver in the first round for Aaron Rodgers finally ends. Wide receiver is favored to be the first position selected by Green Bay at +150.
Pick #30 Buffalo Bills – Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida St.
Previous Mock – Gregory Rousseau, Edge
A playmaking corner, much like his father who Bills head coach Sean McDermott coached when he was the defensive coordinator with the Eagles. Cornerback to be the first position selected by Buffalo is +325.
Pick #31 Baltimore Ravens – Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn St.
Previous Mock – Kansas City Chiefs – Sam Cosmi, OT, Texas
Now with two first-round picks, the Ravens can take a chance on a physical talent like Oweh. Oweh to be selected in the first round is -110.
Pick #32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Joe Tryon, Edge, Washington
Previous Mock – Christian Barmore, DL
A name that you keep hearing that will be a “surprise” pick in the first round. In fact, it’s been said so often it may almost be a surprise at this point if he’s not. Tryon is currently +110 to be selected in the first round.