What if I told you the most controversial draft pick of 2024 might end up saving the Falcons franchise?
Welcome to Atlanta, where the offseason started with a $180 million splash for Kirk Cousins…and then somehow got even louder with the Falcons drafting Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall just weeks later.
Everyone said it was a mistake. A waste. A front office with no plan.
But then Week 1 happened.
Cousins looked slow. Immobile. Rusty.
Coming off Achilles surgery, he was glued to the shotgun and pistol — 100% of snaps, no under center, no play action. Everything that once made him successful… gone.
It wasn’t just a weird game plan. It was a red flag.
And suddenly, drafting Penix didn’t look crazy. It looked smart.
But let’s rewind. Because if the Falcons knew Cousins wasn’t healthy when they signed him, giving him $100 million guaranteed would’ve been malpractice.
And maybe they didn’t know. But they got lucky. Luckily, they had the conviction to take Penix. Luckily, they had a backup plan.
Let’s talk about the plan.
GM Terry Fontenot said it best: “If you believe in a quarterback, you take him. If he sits for 4-5 years, that's a great problem to have.”
They wanted a succession plan. Arthur Blank remembered what happened after Matt Ryan. He wasn’t about to repeat it.
So they built this thing intentionally: Cousins to stabilize now, Penix to develop for the future.
Only the future came a lot faster than anyone expected.
But here’s where it gets complicated.
Cousins actually played well — early. In the first half of games, he ranked top five in EPA per attempt, success rate, and yards per attempt. The Falcons were surgical on their opening drives under new OC Zac Robinson.
But as the games wore on? Cousins crumbled.
In the second half:
- #31 in EPA/attempt
- Third-worst interception rate in the NFL
- 11 of his 16 picks came after halftime
Whether it was fatigue, predictability, or that Achilles tightening up, the drop off was brutal.
It’s impressive that the Falcons even went 7-7 with him starting.
Their kicker ranked 31st in FG%. Their defense went from top 10 to bottom 10. They played a tough slate of pass defenses.
And yet, Robinson found ways to keep the offense afloat.
That brings us to Penix.
When he finally started in December, he brought a totally different energy. Big arm. Aggressive downfield mindset.
He averaged 10.2 air yards per attempt — #2 in the NFL. But his completion rate? Just 48%. His CPOE? Bottom five.
Penix was more accurate than most QBs on deep balls… but far less accurate on short and intermediate throws.
That’s a problem.
NFL offenses live on those easy throws. If Penix can’t hit them consistently, the entire rhythm of the offense breaks down.
But here’s the hope: The Falcons know this
Robinson adjusted the entire scheme in 2024 already, switching from 12 personnel (41%) to 11 personnel (86%) in one year.
They’ve built an offense around spacing, speed, and lighter boxes for Bijan Robinson to abuse.
In 2024, Bijan scored 10 goal-line TDs compared to just 2 in 2023.
He faced eight-man boxes 13% of the time in '24 vs. 52% in '23.
Everything is built to make things easier for the QB. Now Penix just has to hit the throws.
And then there’s the defense.
Raheem Morris is a defensive guy. The front office spent 8 of its last 10 early picks on defense. They brought in Leonard Floyd, Divine Deablo, and Morgan Fox, and spent both first-rounders this year on defenders.
The goal is clear: get back to 2023 form, when the D was top 10 in nearly every category.
Because in 2024, despite playing one of the easiest offensive schedules, the Falcons defense ranked:
- #26 in early down efficiency
- #30 on third down
- #26 in red zone D
That can’t happen again.
So what now?
The Falcons face the fourth-easiest schedule by win totals. They avoid most powerhouse QBs. Their offense faces the #3 easiest slate of defenses.
The bad news? Travel. From Week 9-16, they play six of eight games away from home, including Germany and cross-country road games.
But if they stay healthy and Penix develops?
There’s real upside.
Here’s the bottom line:
The Falcons took a huge risk. Signing Cousins and drafting Penix could’ve been a disaster. But it might just work.
They’ve modernized their offense. They’ve rebuilt the defense. They’ve surrounded Penix with an elite run game, a sharp play caller, and they get a favorable schedule of opponents.
He doesn’t need to be perfect. He just needs to grow.
And if he does? Atlanta’s bet on quarterback succession might be the smartest move of the decade.
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