They had the best rest schedule in NFL history.
They were the healthiest team in the league.
They had the reigning MVP quarterback and Derrick Henry in the backfield.
And yet, they were done by the Divisional Round.
The 2024 Ravens were supposed to be different.
Instead, they were exactly what they’ve been for years: good enough to dream, flawed enough to fall short.
So what’s holding them back?
Let’s start with the obvious: the close games.
The Ravens were 5-5 in one-score games last year. They were 4-4 the year before.
In fact, since 2020, they’re 23-24 in one-score games — dead middle of the NFL.
Now compare that to the Steelers.
Same division. Similar talent. Far worse point differential.
But the Steelers are 37-15 in one-score games over the same span.
That’s the second-best record in football.
It’s not about being lucky. It’s about being intentional.
The Chiefs? 9-1 in one-score playoff games over the last five years.
And it’s exactly where Baltimore must evolve.
Because every razor-thin loss matters in January.
The 2024 Ravens lost three games they were favored to win — Raiders, Browns, Steelers.
Flip any one of them, and Baltimore would’ve hosted the Bills in the Divisional Round instead of flying to Buffalo.
They crushed Buffalo at home earlier in the year, but that’s not where the playoff game was played.
Every seed matters. Every edge matters. And the Ravens keep wasting theirs with every close loss.
Even when Lamar Jackson plays like the best quarterback in football.
And in 2024? He did.
Compared to his own MVP seasons in 2019 and 2023, Lamar’s 2024 stats were even better — across all seven stable metrics, all eight volatile metrics, and all eight coverage-based splits.
He was #1 in EPA per attempt when:
- Throwing outside the numbers
- Outside the pocket
- On early downs
- In the red zone
- Against two-high, zone, and even pressure-free looks
You name the split, and Lamar dominated it.
So how did the Ravens lose?
Because defenses know exactly what gives Lamar trouble: man blitzes.
Lamar is blitzed at a historic rate in the playoffs.
53% of dropbacks.
The league average? Just 26%.
He sees man coverage on 50% of his playoff dropbacks.
League average? 27%.
Now combine them.
Mahomes sees man blitzes on 12% of his playoff dropbacks.
Lamar? 37%.
That’s three times the rate.
Why? Because it works.
Every metric shows Lamar is the #1 playoff QB against zone coverage and non-blitz looks.
But against man blitzes? His numbers tank.
Last year’s Divisional loss to the Bills was a perfect example.
Buffalo ran man blitzes on 37% of dropbacks, up from 10% earlier in the season.
Lamar shredded them the first time. In the playoffs, they flipped the script.
The Steelers have been doing it for years.
They’re 8-2 against Baltimore since 2020 — and no one blitzes Lamar more than Mike Tomlin.
The Chiefs did it in the 2023 AFC Championship Game.
And the Bills did it last year.
This isn’t a fluke. It’s a formula. And every smart team is using it.
If Baltimore doesn’t solve man blitzes — schematically and mentally — they’ll keep hitting the same wall.
Because here’s the thing: Lamar Jackson is good enough to win a Super Bowl.
But football is about margins. And the Ravens are bleeding in the margins.
In 2024:
They led the NFL in penalty-induced EPA losses
They were #2 in total penalties (132)
They committed the most roughing the passer calls (7)
And they ranked #29 in field goal luck
The Chiefs?
Top five in fewest penalties.
Top five in FG luck.
And they don’t lose to backup quarterbacks at home.
That’s where the difference is.
Now add this:
Baltimore’s rest advantage flips in 2025. They go from +3 games in rest differential to -1.
Their bye week moves from Week 14 to Week 7.
They’ll play six road games in their final 10.
And their season starts with the toughest six-game schedule in the league — Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Lions, Rams, and Texans.
It’s brutal.
So what’s the path forward?
- Solve the man blitz issue. If teams keep getting away with it, they’ll never stop bringing it.
- Win close games. Turn 5-5 into 8-2 and you’re playing January football at home.
- Stop self-sabotaging with penalties. The Ravens can’t lead the NFL in EPA losses and expect to leapfrog the Chiefs or Bills.
- Find special teams consistency. A rookie kicker has big shoes to fill — help him by not leaving games to the final possession.
- Expect injuries. Don’t count on being the healthiest team again. Build depth. Stay aggressive.
There is a version of the 2025 season where Baltimore breaks through — where the defense rebounds, the offense adjusts, and Lamar cements his legacy.
But that version requires cleaning up every inch of sloppiness, because the margin for error is gone.
The Ravens have the talent. They’ve had it for years.
What they need now is urgency, execution, and a real plan for the moments that decide everything.
Because the confetti doesn’t fall for the most talented team.
It falls for the best and most prepared one.
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