Buffalo Bills on Hard Knocks: Everything You Need to Know

The Buffalo Bills have been chosen to star in the HBO docuseries Hard Knocks for the upcoming 2025 NFL season.

The first episode airs Tuesday, August 5 at 9 p.m. ET.

At over 550 pages, Warren Sharp's new book 2025 Football Preview features dedicated chapters for all 32 NFL teams, fantasy football predictions, Vegas odds with forecasted wins, plus hundreds of visuals and infographics breaking down the upcoming 2025 NFL season.

In honor of the first Hard Knocks episode, we're sharing Warren's team chapter for the Buffalo Bills in its entirety, absolutely free, to get you prepared for the upcoming series by delivering the smartest information & analysis in the fastest, most direct way possible.

Get Warren's Book for $34.99

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Buffalo Bills 2025 Season Preview

In the last five seasons, only two teams have exceeded 55 regular season wins: the Chiefs (66) and the Bills (61).

Regular season wins are fine…if they lead to better seeding and playoff success.

Despite the Chiefs and Bills both leading the NFL in total wins over the last five seasons and each making the playoffs all five seasons, the Bills lag behind in playoff success.

In the playoffs, the Chiefs have:

4 Conference Championships
2 Super Bowls

Meanwhile, the Bills have:

0 Conference Championships
0 Super Bowls

It is not so simple to suggest the Bills are great in the regular season and bad in the playoffs.

In fact, in the playoffs over the last five years, the Bills have 12 games played (second most in the NFL) and 7 wins (second most in the NFL).

Beyond that, they actually have a winning record in the playoffs: 12 games, 7 wins, 5 losses.

There are only six other teams with a winning record in the playoffs over the last five years, and ALL of them have at least one Conference Championship victory and Super Bowl appearance to show for it:

Chiefs
Rams
Eagles
Buccaneers
Bengals
49ers

But not the Bills.

You cannot blame Josh Allen’s overall performance as the reason they cannot seem to accomplish their goals of making it to and then winning the Super Bowl.

If you look at the 24 quarterbacks with at least 50 playoff pass attempts since 2020, \Allen is the #1 most efficient quarterback in the playoffs.

#1 in EPA per play (+0.15)
#1 in success rate (50%)

We know how badly turnovers affect games, particularly in the postseason.

That hasn’t been an issue for Allen.

He has the #1 best TD:INT ratio in the postseason over the last five years.

He has thrown 25 playoff touchdowns to only 4 interceptions, a TD/INT rate of 6.3 that ranks #1.

In their five playoff losses, the Bills have averaged 24.6 points per game, which is not only above the scoring average in the playoffs for all teams (24.5) but is substantially above the scoring average for teams that lose playoff games (18.8).

In fact, the Bills average 24.6 points per game in playoff losses over the last five years, the #1 most of any NFL team with at least three playoff losses.

Opponents scored an average of 33.2 points in Buffalo’s five playoff losses over that span.

It’s hard to pin those defeats on Allen.

In his five losses, he’s averaged +0.14 EPA per play and a 51.2% success rate.

Where do those stats rank among quarterbacks in playoff losses over the last five years?

#1 in EPA/play
#1 in success rate

In those losses, he has thrown 9 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions, and his 4.5 TD:INT ratio is #2 in the NFL among playoff losing QBs.

Allen also added 3 rushing TDs (tied for most in the NFL) in his playoff losses.

His 2.4 total touchdowns per game rank #2 best among playoff losing quarterbacks, and his 0.4 interceptions per game rank #3 best.

Avoiding sacks is also critical, and Allen’s 4.3% sack rate ranks #5 best.

As noted earlier, the two teams with the most regular season wins and most playoff wins over the last five years are the Chiefs and Bills.

Let’s compare Allen’s performance in his playoff losses (5) to Patrick Mahomes in his losses (3) over the last five years.

And keep in mind, there have been 18 quarterbacks with at least two playoff losses in our sample.

Allen (of 18 QBs):

#1 EPA/play (+0.17)
#2 EPA/dropback (+0.13)

Mahomes (of 18 QBs):

#15 EPA/play (-0.15)
#18 EPA/dropback (-0.22)

In playoff losses, Allen has been the best and given his team the most efficiency of any quarterback.

Mahomes has been the worst.

In his five playoff losses, Allen has a 9:2 TD:INT ratio.

In his three playoff losses, Mahomes has a 6:6 TD:INT ratio.

Allen (of 18 QBs):

#3 in TD:INT ratio (4.5)
#5 in sack rate (4.3%)
#2 in Sack+INT rate (4.8%)

Patrick Mahomes (of 18 QBs):

#10 in TD:INT ratio (1.0)
#14 in sack rate (9.8%)
#15 in Sack+INT rate (13.2%)

Allen has also recorded 293 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs in those games.

His 59 rushing yards per game is over double Mahomes’ 26 rushing yards per game, and Mahomes does not have a rushing touchdown.

Allen has given the Buffalo Bills tremendous performances in the postseason, even in their losses.

He is the best statistical quarterback in the postseason over the last five years across all games, wins or losses.

And yet, the only statistic that matters for the Bills is 0.

That is the number of Super Bowl wins in the last five years.

Even worse, that is the number of AFC Championships in their five playoff trips.

Allen would be the first to point the finger at himself for things he could have done better in each playoff loss, and he hasn’t been perfect.

But at the end of the day, given these statistics and this analysis, it’s hard to look at the Bills and think they can “get over the hump” in the playoffs if only Allen would play better.

With this team, their playoff futility is not on the quarterback.

So, if it’s not on the quarterback, who then bears the blame for the Bills failing mightily when it matters most and not bringing home any AFC Championships or Super Bowls these last five seasons despite recording the #2 most regular season wins and #2 most playoff wins?

And the even bigger question: What are they changing to get over that hump in 2025?

Unfortunately, the answer might be “not enough,” particularly when you look at this next analysis.

As mentioned earlier, the defense has surrendered an average of 33.2 points per game in their five playoff losses over the last five years.

When the average winning playoff team scores 30.2 points per game and your defense is surrendering a full 3.0 ppg more in these games, it’s probably not a positive sign.

If you were rushing in to defend Buffalo’s defense, you might argue that they played the Chiefs in four of the five losses, so it’s natural to surrender more to such a good offense.

But consider this: In the four years they met in the playoffs, the Chiefs scored more points against the Bills than they did against other defenses.

Here are the Chiefs' playoff scores against the Bills and average score against other teams in the playoffs:

2024: 32 points vs. BUF, 22.5 ppg vs everyone else
2023: 27 points vs. BUF, 22.7 ppg vs everyone else
2021: 42 points vs. BUF, 33.0 ppg vs everyone else
2020: 38 points vs. BUF, 15.5 ppg vs everyone else

In the playoffs over the last five years, the Chiefs averaged 34.8 ppg against the Bills and 24.8 ppg against everyone else.

The Chiefs scored at least 27 points in 100% of games against the Bills and scored at least 27 points in just three of 12 games (25%) against every other defense they faced in the playoffs.

“What more can Josh Allen do?”

The answer is not much. Just gaze upon the prior analysis. He’s been brilliant.

“Who is to blame?”

The answer is Sean McDermott.

He has to fix this. It’s McDermott’s side of the ball that is letting Allen’s offense down.

You must coach and scheme better defense in the playoffs.

If you can’t do that, you must get better players.

It seems like McDermott realizes he’s incapable of the first order priority and has moved to the next logical pursuit of getting better players.

The Bills signed five players in free agency who have an average salary of $3 million or more.

Four of five were defensive players (Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, Larry Ogunjobi, Tre’Davious White).

The Bills drafted five players through pick No. 170 in the NFL draft.

All five were defensive players (Maxwell Hairston, T.J. Sanders, Landon Jackson, Deone Walker, Jordan Hancock).

This is a referendum on McDermott’s defense.

This is the first time in the McDermott era that the Bills used their first five draft picks on his side of the ball.

It’s the first time in 20 years (since 2006) the Bills used their first five picks on the defensive side of the ball.

The Bills have rotated offensive coordinators and have won double-digit games for years now thanks to Allen.

But they haven’t won in the playoffs because their defense is getting outcoached and outexecuted.

If McDermott can’t get it done with this massive influx of defensive talent, it is time for him to go.

On a play to play basis, hopefully the defense improves this year.

Because, from a health perspective, it will be hard for the Bills offense to improve at all.

It’s almost guaranteed to regress.

Each Week 1 starter played 900+ snaps, and only RT Spencer Brown missed one game. The rest of their Week 1 starters played the entire season.

That level of offensive health will not happen again in 2025.

Another thing that won’t improve in 2025 is turnover differential.

The Bills finished +28 in turnover differential.

If that sounds like a lot, it is.

To put it into context, there have been just three teams with larger turnover margins since 2000, and they all were in the 2010-2012 time frame, when opposing offenses were pushing the ball deeper downfield on passes and interceptions were more frequent.

With reduced average passing distance, interceptions have become rarer.

In those seasons (2010-2012), the average air yards per attempt was in the 8.6 to 8.7 range. These last three years, for example, the average has been a full yard shorter, at 7.7 air yards per attempt on average.

As such, the interception rate dropped to a minuscule 2.2% this past year, which is the lowest it has been in modern NFL history.

This is part of the reason why no teams have seen turnover margins near +24 in decades.

There have been nine NFL teams with +21 turnover margins or better since 2000.

These occurred in 2000, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 (x2), 2012…and 2024 (Bills).

For more context, the best turnover margins by year over the last five years:

+24 – 2024 (Bills)
+12 – 2023
+13 – 2022
+14 – 2021
+11 – 2020

None of those seasons were anywhere close to the 2024 Bills.

And for the final piece of context, let’s look at the Bills' own turnover margins since 2020:

+24 – 2024
+2 – 2023
0 – 2022
+8 – 2021
+4 – 2020

Unfortunately for Bills fans, expecting anywhere close to a +24 turnover margin in 2025 would be foolish.

And that’s a very bad thing for the 2025 Bills.

There have been 14 teams to record +20 turnover margins or better since 2000.

Those teams won an average of 12.5 games, recording an average record of 12.5-3.5, because winning the turnover battle is the #1 largest predictor of wins and losses in the NFL (more on that momentarily).

But the season AFTER recording such tremendous turnover margins, they fall back to earth.

Their average turnover margin the following year dropped from +23 to +5, with only one team even exceeding a +10 turnover margin.

And their average W-L margin fell the following season by three full wins, from 12.5-3.5 to 9.6-6.4.

Next, let’s examine the last decade and expand our criteria (since large turnover margins are rarer) to increase the sample size.

Let’s look at any team with double-digit turnover margins (+10 or better) and compare their year over year performance.

In a season of positive turnover margin (+10 or larger):

Average turnover margin: +12.5
Average wins: 11.1
Average record: 11.1-5.2

The following season:

Average turnover margin: +2.3
Average wins: 9.2
Average record: 9.2-7.1

The average positive turnover margin drops by 10, and the W-L record drops to one game above .500 (9-7).

Those stats, plus the historical Bills stats that show their turnover margin in the two prior years was +2 and dead even, mean it is extremely likely the Bills will have to win without the aid of a massively lopsided positive turnover margin in 2025.

Last year’s Bills defense showed major regression but was completely bailed out by turnovers.

After ranking #16 and allowing just 27% of drives to reach their red zone in 2023, the 2024 Bills ranked #30, allowing 36% of drives to reach their red zone.

They also dropped from #10 in yards per drive allowed in 2023 to #24 in 2024.

Here’s a crazy one:

2023 Bills: #9 highest rate of punts forced per drive
2024 Bills: #31 highest rate of punts forced per drive

But what saved them was they ranked #1 with 18% of opponent drives ending in a turnover.

How rare is it for a defense to rank #30 in rate of drives allowed to reach the red zone but #1 in rate of drives to end with a takeaway?

The 2024 Bills were the first defense since at least 2000 to be so bad as to allow at least 35% of opponent drives to reach their red zone while also generating turnovers on at least 16% of opponent drives.

Offensively, there are a few things I think must improve in 2025 to optimize Buffalo’s odds of success: more play action and more success on first down passes.

For several years, I’ve been begging for the Bills to use more play action.

I did so in the 2023 Preview and the 2024 Preview.

Here I am doing the same in the 2025 Preview.

On early downs, the 2024 Bills used three or more wide receivers on 54% of plays and two or fewer on 46% of plays.

Their usage of two or fewer WRs is the #10 highest in the NFL.

Allen is outstanding when using play action with two or fewer WRs on the field and nearly doubles his EPA per attempt when passing with play action (from +0.28 to +0.45).

With play action:

+0.45 EPA (#3)
59% success rate (#6)
10.4 Y/A (#7)

As for first down passing, it was absolutely puzzling last year.

Allen’s first down passes in the first three quarters of games in 2024:

-0.01 EPA (#30)
42% success rate (#35)
6.8 Y/A (#34)
61% completions (#40)

In 2023, Allen completed 73% of these passes (#10), but that dropped down to 61% (#40) in 2024.

If you look at the “down analysis” in the middle of the chapter, you will see it is very easy to illustrate how bad the Bills were when passing the ball in 2024 on first down and how outstanding they were on second and third downs.

I shared where Allen ranked on first down.

Well, on second and third downs in the first three quarters last year, he ranked:

+0.24 EPA (#3)
48% success rate (#5)
8.2 Y/A (#4)
67% completions (#15)

There is no reason a top-five passing offense on second and third downs should rank #30 or worse on first down like Buffalo did last year.

OC Joe Brady must improve their intentions with first down passing and figure out a way to start off each set of downs with a positive pass play when they drop back.

The Bills are in unfamiliar territory in 2025 in that they finished first place in the AFC East but still have the #5 easiest schedule based on win totals.

That said, though it’s a great schedule of opponents, it’s tough as it relates to rest.

Buffalo slips from the #8 easiest rest edge schedule of 2024 to the #4 toughest in 2025.

Since 2020, only the Chiefs have won more games than the Bills.

They have won 74% of their games, and Buffalo has the #6 best rate of covering spreads.

But even a team as great as the Bills isn’t immune to rest disadvantages.

Since 2020, the Bills are 11-7 (61%) with less rest than their opponent including 9-9 (50%) ATS.

In 2025, the Bills were given the NFL’s #4 worst schedule based on net rest.

They are -7 days of net rest, having five games at a rest disadvantage compared to four games at a rest advantage.

This is the first time since 2015 the Bills had a net rest edge worse than -4 days.

In fact, from 2016 through 2024, the Bills had the third-best overall net rest edge, averaging +4 per season.

The Bills play five teams who have over seven days to prepare for them, the #2 most in the NFL this year behind the Raiders.

And they play five games with less rest than their opponent, which is likewise the #2 most in the NFL.

And most of their games with less rest occur later in the year, when rest matters more.

From Week 10 through 18, the Bills play four games at a rest disadvantage and just one game at a rest advantage.

Their net rest of -10 days during this period is the #3 worst in the NFL.

This includes rest disadvantages against the Dolphins (Week 10), Bengals (Week 14), Patriots (Week 15), and Eagles (Week 17).

The positive for the Bills' schedule is less about rest and more about overall ease (#5 easiest) and location of their toughest games.

Their four toughest opponents will all play in Buffalo (Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Cincinnati).

With all those difficult games at home, the Bills' road schedule is #1 easiest in the NFL.

The Bills head into 2025 with an undeniable sense of urgency.

They’ve won more games than almost anyone over the past five years, and their quarterback has played at an elite level, especially in the postseason.

Yet, the same roadblocks remain: no Super Bowl appearances, no AFC titles, and the recurring theme of the defense collapsing when it matters most.

This offseason, the Bills clearly recognized that reality, pouring both draft and free agency resources into rebuilding that side of the ball.

If those additions can help the defense hold up when games matter most, Buffalo might be able to finally clear that last hurdle.

But if they can’t, and if Josh Allen once again has to carry the entire team, the frustration will only deepen.

There are also regression factors that can’t be ignored.

The 2024 Bills rode unsustainable turnover fortune and historic offensive health to 13 wins.

Both are likely to regress in 2025.

Combine that with a rest disadvantage heavy second half of the season, and the path back to a high seed in the AFC could be harder than it looks on paper.

Ultimately, if the defense improves meaningfully and Allen plays as we know he can, the Bills are a strong contender in 2025.

Buffalo Bills 2024 Passing Recap & 2025 Outlook

Josh Allen was excellent again last season, winning his first MVP Award. Allen averaged only 233.2 passing yards per game (his fewest since 2019), but he made up ground in efficiency, ball protection, and avoiding sacks. Allen’s 7.7 yards per pass attempt were his highest since 2020, and his 12.2 yards per completion were his highest since his rookie season. His 1.2% interception rate and 2.8% sack rate were career lows, contributing to his career best 77.2 QBR and career best mark in EPA per play (0.26). Allen also rushed for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns. That earned him a six-year contract worth up to $330 million this offseason. Allen's cap hit is $36 million this season, and it will exceed $50 million per season for the remainder of the contract. Behind Allen, Buffalo has veterans Mitchell Trubisky and Mike White signed for 2025. They hold restricted rights on Shane Buechele after the season.

Buffalo Bills 2024 Receiving Recap & 2025 Outlook

Buffalo threw the ball to wide receivers 59.6% of the time last season, 19th in the league. Their wideouts combined to catch 190 passes (20th) for 2,407 yards (22nd) and 18 touchdowns (11th). Khalil Shakir led the unit, catching 76 of 100 targets for 821 yards and 4 touchdowns. The ancillary wideouts for Buffalo were tough to depend on in 2024. Mack Hollins was on the field for 70.7% of the dropbacks, which led the position. Replacing Hollins and Amari Cooper this offseason, Buffalo brought in Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore. They will also be looking for Keon Coleman to take a step forward. Coleman caught 29 of 57 (50.9%) targets for 556 yards and 4 touchdowns over 13 games as a rookie. Dalton Kincaid has a low bar for improvement in his third season after averaging 3.4 receptions for 34.5 yards over 13 games last season.

Buffalo Bills 2024 Rushing Recap & 2025 Outlook

Buffalo was productive on the ground last season, rushing 491 times (9th) for 2,230 yards (9th) and a league high 32 touchdowns. Josh Allen rushed for 531 of those yards and 12 touchdowns, but James Cook had his best season. Cook ended his third season turning 239 touches into 1,267 yards and 18 touchdowns. Ray Davis handled 130 touches for 631 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie. In the one game that Cook missed last season, Davis handled 23 touches for 152 yards, playing only 58% of the snaps. Ty Johnson was brought back for two more years. Johnson had only 59 touches in 2024, but he averaged 8.4 yards per touch and closed the season as the primary passing down back.

Fantasy Football Impact for the 2025 Buffalo Bills

It is not often that the top fantasy quarterback is attached to a complete unit of cheap pass catchers, but we have that this season with Josh Allen.

That makes sense, given the deployment and rotation of Buffalo pass catchers in 2024, but it also leaves the door open for low cost upside should we see a tighter rotation or defined roles for the 2025 unit.

The easy bet to make here was Khalil Shakir, but a training camp injury has put his availability for Week 1 in doubt.

Shakir closed the season quietly but still put together the best season of his early career, catching 76 of 100 targets for 821 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Although he was held to fewer than 40 yards receiving in four of his final five games, Shakir was the lone constant wide receiver in this offense in terms of target opportunities.

He led the team with 20.2% of the targets and was targeted on 26.3% of his routes, second on the team behind Dalton Kincaid.

Shakir can be limited in route participation due to playing 70% of his snaps from the slot, which keeps his cost depressed. He ran only 25 routes with one or two wide receivers on the field (17.7% of the team total).

He also only had three targets in the end zone (8.8%).

While Shakir is a fine pick at his cost, assuming he is healthy for the start of the season, I want to take a bite on Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer.

Coleman enters his second year having failed to address questions about his potential limitations entering the league, his ability to separate, and his versatility.

However, those concerns are priced in while not accounting for the positives he showed.

He averaged 19.2 yards per catch and was seventh among wide receivers in yards per route (3.46) in one or two WR sets.

Despite missing four games, Coleman had a team-high 8 end zone targets.

Before a wrist injury in Week 9 sidelined Coleman until Week 15, he was coming off weeks as the WR15 (4-125-0) and WR15 (5-70-1).

Palmer did not fill the box score with counting stats over his rookie contract, but he does have underlying metrics that keep the door open for future production.

Palmer ranked 10th among qualifying receivers in route win rate last year. The next closest Buffalo wide receiver last year was Amari Cooper, who was 61st and is no longer on the team.

Palmer also gives Buffalo a potential man coverage beating option, something they lacked in 2024.

Palmer was eighth among wide receivers in separation score against man coverage. The next closest Bill was Coleman (54th).

Also, don’t forget about Kincaid, who let down last year at high capital but is now being drafted as a TE2.

During the season, Kincaid missed four games due to a concussion, a collarbone injury, and a knee injury.

All of those bumps could have contributed to his production dip, but Kincaid still has plenty of runway to participate in this passing game.

He was targeted on a team-high 27.2% of his routes last season, but only ran a route on 62.9% of the dropbacks in his games.

Defensive Projections for the 2025 Buffalo Bills

Opposing teams could run on the Bills in 2024, with Buffalo allowing 4.4 yards per carry on running back runs (22nd).

That production was boom or bust, though. Buffalo finished second in stuff rate (25.3%) but also last in explosive run rate allowed (13.4%).

The main pair from last year are back with DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver returning for another season. Buffalo added to the unit with Larry Ogunjobi in free agency, though he is suspended for the first six games, and T.J. Sanders in the second round.

The Bills did not have a prolific pass rush in 2024, finishing 23rd in pressure rate (32.5%) and 18th with 39 sacks.

Greg Rousseau led the team with 8 sacks on a quality 14.4% pressure rate. Von Miller added 6 sacks on limited snaps last season, but the Bills released him ahead of free agency before adding Joey Bosa on a one-year deal.

Bosa theoretically can offer Buffalo more than a rotational pass rushing role, but we still should see a lot of A.J. Epenesa and potentially third-round pick Landon Jackson.

Buffalo also added Michael Hoecht, but he will also serve a six-game suspension to open the season.

Javon Solomon could be an X-factor for the pass rush group after getting 2 sacks with a 17.1% pressure rate on a very small sample as a rookie.

Matt Milano had another frustrating year, playing in just four games before the playoffs after participating in five games in 2023. He took a pay cut this offseason and will now be a free agent after the 2025 season.

Terrel Bernard was the primary option last season with Milano sidelined, recording 16 run stuffs and a tackle on 20.6% of his run defense snaps.

2023 third-round pick Dorian Williams played the second most snaps at linebacker last season, getting 14 run stuffs of his own with a 24.4% tackle rate on his run defense snaps.

Buffalo allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt (18th) and a 4.8% touchdown rate (18th) in 2024. They did do a good job limiting big plays (7%, 3rd) and finished fifth with 16 interceptions.

Christian Benford earned a new deal this offseason by allowing just 5.4 yards per target in 2024.

Slot corner Taron Johnson is also back after allowing an 80.3 quarterback rating in coverage last season. Behind that duo is interesting.

The Bills reunited with both Tre'Davious White and Dane Jackson this offseason, and they drafted Maxwell Hairston in the first round, who has a path to immediate playing time but suffered an injury in training camp.

Buffalo re-signed Damar Hamlin in free agency after he started 14 games for them in 2024. While a great story, Hamlin was not an above average starter last season and especially struggled in coverage.

Taylor Rapp played the second most snaps at safety last season, similarly struggling in coverage.

The upside outcome at safety is Cole Bishop taking a step forward in year two.

A second-round pick last year, Bishop played 358 snaps on defense as a rookie but did not shine when given the chance, allowing a 127.4 quarterback rating in coverage.

2025 Buffalo Bills Personnel Rankings by Unit

Despite their status among the league’s elite, we don’t view the Bills as having one of the most complete rosters. Buffalo’s roster as a whole only ranks ninth based on an average of each unit.

Josh Allen is the reason the Bills can rise above average play at other areas on the roster. Allen even received one first place vote at quarterback 一 the first time in our five years compiling these unit ranks that Patrick Mahomes was not a unanimous choice at the top.

Votes for Buffalo’s backfield ranged from ninth to 20th. The large gap was likely the result of voters differing on how to weigh the consistent production of James Cook against the severe lack of depth.

Buffalo improved its depth at wide receiver with the additions of Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore, but the lack of a proven go-to weapon is concerning. Maybe Keon Coleman will make the leap this year, but he caught just 64% of his catchable targets at 10 or more yards downfield last year, ranked 66th out of 72 qualifiers.

Buffalo’s offensive line returns intact and cracked the top 10, but Allen would benefit from improved pass protection. The Bills allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 23% of dropbacks last year, ranked 18th.

The Bills contacted opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage at the league’s second-best rate last year (53%), and the front seven may be stronger in 2025. Few teams can match Buffalo’s depth on the defensive line after the additions of Joey Bosa in free agency and draft picks T.J. Sanders, Landon Jackson, and Deone Walker.

Votes for the Bills’ secondary ranged from 13th to 25th, potentially a reflection of the uncertainty around one of the key outside cornerback jobs. First-round pick Maxwell Hairston has the athleticism to set a high ceiling for production, but his inconsistent play at Kentucky last year was an indication that he might not be ready for the spotlight.

Sean McDermott’s consistency was viewed favorably by our voters as he climbed four spots in the rankings to crack the top 10.

Rookie Player Impact for the 2025 Buffalo Bills

The Bills are betting on the upside of cornerback Maxwell Hairston (first round). He is one of the best athletes in the entire draft class, but has limited experience (20 starts) and even less production.

During his two years as a starter at Kentucky, he allowed a catch rate 1.5% above expected based on route adjusted data.

Due to a shoulder injury, Hairston was only active for three SEC games last year, during which he allowed six catches on 11 targets in coverage for 129 yards.

So while the raw talent is there, he might be a liability as a rookie if forced into action, and he already suffered an injury in training camp that could stunt his development.

T.J. Sanders (second round) generated a 7.8% pressure rate on the interior last year and fits best as a three tech interior lineman.

That spot is currently occupied by Ed Oliver, so Sanders will likely be relegated to backup duties this fall. Oliver has two years remaining on his contract, but his cap hit more than doubles to $24.2 million next year.

Sanders will be joined on the interior defensive line by the 328-pound Deone Walker (fourth round), who could be the team’s nose tackle of the future.

DaQuan Jones fills that role for now, but he is in the final year of his contract.

There’s also a chance Walker is more than just a nose tackle.

There were high expectations for him after he posted an impressive 12.4% pressure rate when lined up as a three tech in 2023, but that number plummeted to 5.1% in 2024 while he played through a back injury.

Landon Jackson (third round) will also contribute on the defensive line, though he’s likely to be buried on the depth chart as a rookie.

Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa are locked in as starters, with A.J. Epenesa and Michael Hoecht likely to rotate in as the primary backups. However, Bosa and Epenesa are free agents after the year.

Jackson posted impressive numbers at the Combine but failed to flash that same athleticism on the field. He generated a mediocre 10.4% pressure rate when lined up on the edge at Arkansas last season.

Jordan Hancock (fifth round) played all over Ohio State’s secondary during his career, but he settled into a role as the Buckeyes' nickel corner during their championship run.

The nickel corner spot is occupied by Taron Johnson in Buffalo, and he’s under contract through the 2027 season, though his cap hit climbs above $10 million next year.

Dorian Strong (sixth round) joins Hancock in the secondary, though they are not in direct competition for a job given their different roles. Strong has almost exclusively lined up on the outside.

Strong’s profile is essentially the opposite of Hairston’s. The athletic traits are underwhelming, but the production has been steady. Based on route adjusted numbers, Strong allowed a catch rate 26% below expected over the last two years.

Chase Lundt (sixth round) has the height that Buffalo bizarrely covets. Over the last five years, Buffalo has used three linemen measuring 6-foot-8 or taller and drafted another who never saw the field. Lundt primarily played right tackle at UConn, a spot locked down by Spencer Brown for the foreseeable future in Buffalo.

Kaden Prather (seventh round) is a big outside weapon 一 29% of his targets were at least 15 yards downfield last year at Maryland. Buffalo has a logjam at receiver, but Prather and Keon Coleman are the only ones taller than 6-foot-1.

This is a tough draft class to evaluate.

On one hand, it’s easy to envision a scenario where Buffalo’s first four picks are starters on the 2026 squad.

However, there’s a good chance none of them are significant contributors in 2025, and that’s a tough pill to swallow for a team trying to get over the hump and win a conference title.

We may eventually look back on this class as a critical moment in resetting the Bills’ defense, but Buffalo may also regret the lack of instant impact if the team falls short of its goals this year.

Penalty Analysis for the 2025 Buffalo Bills

The Good

The Bills offense was a top-three beneficiary of roughing the passer and unnecessary roughness penalties in 2024, a continuation of the 2023 season when they ranked as a top-five beneficiary in both categories.
The Bills defense surrendered an average of just seven yards per defensive pass interference infraction, significantly lower than the NFL average of 15.2 yards per penalty in this category.
The defense conceded just 6.6 yards per automatic first down penalty surrendered. The league average is 11.01 yards in this category.
An above average 39.5% of Bills penalties were committed on less impactful first down plays. The league average is 33.4% on first downs.
The special teams unit was excellent, ranking in the bottom five penalized units in 2024.

The Bad

The Bills offense accounted for 57% of the team's overall penalties. Anything in the 50% range is manageable with a quarterback of Josh Allen’s caliber, but there is room for improvement, particularly on the road.
The Bills ended the season ranked as a top-five penalized team for false starts.
The combination of offensive holding and false start accounted for 45% of the team’s overall penalties last season. The Bills ranked third overall for offensive holding penalties per game on the road.
The Bills ranked as a top-three penalized team for unnecessary roughness penalties per game in 2024, the second straight season this has occurred.

Grade: A

The 2024 regular season was another successful campaign for the Buffalo Bills, culminating in Allen's first MVP award.

Along the way, Buffalo recorded a dominant regular season win over the Chiefs, which led to them securing another AFC East title.

Despite those accomplishments, their season ended in typical fashion at the hands of their playoff nemesis, the Kansas City Chiefs.

Buffalo invested heavily on defense in the draft, and those players will be leaned on to pay immediate dividends in 2025.

However, the same question remains with this franchise.

Can Buffalo get over the hump in the playoffs, particularly if they have to face off against the Chiefs once again in January?

The 2025 schedule is favorable for the Bills, and a No.1 seed in the AFC is a realistic possibility.

It's simplistic analysis, but success for this franchise will be measured by Super Bowl appearances. If Buffalo falls short yet again in 2025, the season will be labeled as a failure.

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