Cincinnati Bengals 2025 NFL Season Preview From Warren Sharp

Joe Burrow has been sacked 164 times in the last four seasons.

He’s been hit within 2.5 seconds of the snap more than any other quarterback in the league.

And yet, the Bengals still rank top 10 in wins over that stretch.

If that doesn’t blow your mind, it should, because no other elite quarterback in the NFL is asked to do more with less than Joe Burrow.

Let’s break it down.

Since 2021, Burrow ranks top 10 in expected points added, success rate, yards per attempt, accuracy, and completion percentage.

He’s the only QB in the league who can say that.

Not Patrick Mahomes. Not Josh Allen. Not Lamar Jackson.

He’s been this efficient while working with the least help imaginable.

Among all 38 quarterbacks with 750+ dropbacks since 2021, Burrow ranks:

  • #3 in shotgun rate
  • #35 in play action rate
  • #30 in motion rate

That means he’s running the most stripped-down offense of any top-tier QB in the NFL.

No disguise. No deception. No help.

And that’s just the passing game.

The Bengals' run game ranks bottom three in both success rate and yards per carry since 2021.

If you isolate just running back carries, it’s even worse: #26 in success rate and #20 in EPA.

That’s a far cry from the Ravens, Bills, or Chiefs, all of whom rank top 10 in almost every rushing metric.

And while those teams are getting stops, Cincinnati’s defense? They’re doing the opposite.

Since 2021, the Bengals have ranked #30 in yards per play and #28 in defensive success rate.

Only one team in the league has allowed more quick pressures to their quarterback — and no one has allowed more hits within 2.5 seconds than the Bengals.

Let me repeat that: no quarterback has been hit quicker or more violently than Joe Burrow.

And yet he keeps winning.

This is where things go from bad to worse.

Since 2021, the offensive line has ranked:

#30 in pass block win rate in 2021

#30 in 2022

#27 in 2023

Dead last, #32, in 2024

That’s four straight years ranking 27th or worse.

No other team comes close to that level of sustained failure.

And how did the Bengals respond this offseason?

They let Alex Cappa walk, replacing him with a $2 million free agent and two mid-round draft picks.

Their returning starters all graded among the bottom third in pressure allowed or penalties.

There’s no reason to expect this line to improve and every reason to expect it to break Burrow again.

As for the run game?

The Bengals were one of the worst early-down rushing teams in football last season.

#29 in success rate, #28 in yards per carry, and bottom 10 in EPA despite facing light boxes.

They brought back an aging Samaje Perine and drafted Tahj Brooks in the sixth round. That’s it.

And they’ll be facing the NFL’s toughest schedule of run defenses this year including four top-six units in their first five games.

Let’s talk defense. Specifically, Trey Hendrickson.

He’s recorded back-to-back 17.5 sack seasons — something only Reggie White and J.J. Watt have done in NFL history.

And yet, he’s scheduled to be the 20th-highest paid edge rusher in 2025. He wants a new deal, and he deserves it.

Without him on the field, the Bengals defense ranks dead last in pressure rate, completion rate allowed, success rate allowed, and passer rating allowed.

With him? They’re top 12 in all four.

He makes that big of a difference.

But even with him, the Bengals defense last season ranked:

  • #31 in overall efficiency
  • #29 on early downs
  • #24 vs. the pass
  • #23 vs. the run
  • #31 in red zone efficiency

And that was while playing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses and quarterbacks in the entire NFL.

In 2025, that changes.

The Bengals go from the #1 easiest offensive schedule to the #10 hardest. That’s the largest increase in difficulty for any defense in the league.

There is some good news. The Bengals finally have a rest edge.

They’re scheduled to be the more rested team in four of five rest-variance games from Week 8 onward.

That includes a +7 day edge against Pittsburgh in Week 11 and +3 days against Buffalo in Week 14.

But here we are again.

An elite quarterback playing behind a porous offensive line, without a real run game, and backed by a bottom-tier defense that’s only competitive when one player is on the field.

The difference between the Bengals’ ceiling and their floor is massive. And it’s almost entirely dependent on whether Burrow can carry them once again.

If Hendrickson holds out into the season, the defense might implode. If the line doesn’t hold, Burrow might not last. If the run game stalls, every drive will feel like pulling teeth.

This isn’t a team that needs a miracle. This is a team that needs to finally start supporting its franchise quarterback.

Because the rest of the league still doesn’t understand what Joe Burrow is doing, not just to win games, but to keep this roster relevant in spite of everything working against him.

And if Cincinnati doesn’t fix it soon, they’re going to waste one of the most talented quarterbacks of this generation.

Get a full breakdown of the Cincinnati Bengals and every other NFL team in Warren Sharp's 2025 Football Preview!

Warren Sharp’s 550+ page full-color PDF, the 2025 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have previously read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought process abounds in every team chapter and article.


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