I have some alarming Fernando Mendoza final preseason stats … and they are why he's unlikely to start anytime soon:
51 dropbacks with only 25 completions
14 hits taken, #1 most in NFL
29% hit rate, #2 highest in NFL
Before we dive into the biggest concern, let's just discuss standard passing metrics.
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Mendoza, out of 63 qualifying QBs right now:
#55 in EPA per attempt (-0.36)
#45 in yards per attempt (5.3)
#55 in net yards per attempt (4.5)
#52 in completion rate (55.6%)
#51 in passer rating (59.5)
Bear in mind, we're ranking him primarily against third- and fourth-string quarterbacks who will never see time in the NFL, as the threshold is 20 preseason dropbacks.
The rankings would look worse if more NFL starting QBs were included.
-0.36 EPA per attempt would have ranked #44 among 45 qualifying NFL QBs last year, behind J.J. McCarthy, Shedeur Sanders, and Dillon Gabriel.
5.3 yards per attempt would have ranked #44 as well.
55.6% completion rate would have ranked dead last.
These numbers are problematic, yes.
But he is a rookie, and there's no reason to panic about his future upside.
The biggest defense of these numbers is that they come with a second-string offense, though they also come while playing second-string (and third-string, at times) defenses.
But beyond the standard passing metrics being problematic, there are actually other numbers that Mendoza himself controls and that are even more concerning:
- 3.0 seconds to throw (#58)
- Only 18% of attempts went beyond the sticks (#60)
- 70% of blitzes recorded pressure (#59)
- 37% pressure rate (#51)
Mendoza is not yet adept at audibling to plays that win, adjusting his line properly to what the defense is showing, and getting through his progressions quickly enough.
A 3.0 second time-to-throw average is well above the NFL average (2.76), and while some QBs last year (such as Lamar Jackson and even Brock Purdy) had longer time-to-throw averages, it's less than ideal for a rookie who is being thrown into the fire.
That long time to throw invites pressure.
The QBs with longer time-to-throw averages, like Jackson and Purdy, were also pushing 38% to 39% of their attempts beyond the sticks, not 18% like Mendoza.
That 18% tells me he's not comfortable yet in seeing the full field and dealing with what is coming from the defense.
The NFL average last year was 34% of attempts thrown to targets beyond the sticks.
The lowest QB was 24%.
The most alarming was the blitz-to-pressure rate.
Kirk Cousins was blitzed 4 times and had 0 pressures because he got it out quickly.
Aidan O'Connell was blitzed 9 times, had 4 pressures (44%), and only 1 hit (11%) behind an even worse offensive line than Mendoza's.
Mendoza was blitzed 10 times, had 7 pressures (70%), and took 5 hits (50%).
You can't live with that.
This preseason, the NFL average of all QBs was a 16% hit rate and a 36% pressure rate on blitzes.
Last year, the NFL average of all QBs was a 20% hit rate and a 43% pressure rate on blitzes.
Mendoza was at a 50% hit rate and a 70% pressure rate this preseason.
Those are untenable numbers.
Forget trying to operate an offense.
Those are numbers that will get a No. 1 overall pick injured in the NFL.
And here's another layer of context for these numbers: Mendoza had the #1 highest throwaway rate of any QB in the preseason.
13.3% throwaways
So it's not as if Klint Kubiak can just tell him to throw the ball away more.
He's already doing it at the highest rate of any QB.
Last year, the NFL average was 4.6%, and no QB was over 11.8% (Russell Wilson).
So coaching more throwaways under pressure isn't the solution, because the offense simply wouldn't function.
He needs to predict pressure better, adjust the play or the blocking scheme, and then get the ball out faster to the best option(s) on those dropbacks.
As a result of the pressure he allowed, he lost 39 sack yards (#62) and took 4 sacks (#55).
It all leads back to where we started:
51 dropbacks with only 25 completions
14 hits taken, #1 most in NFL
29% hit rate, #2 highest in NFL
I have detailed preseason play-by-play data for the last decade.
Out of 662 qualifying QBs through three preseason games (min 20 dropbacks), only six had as many hits with as poor a hit rate as Mendoza: 2017 Alex Tanney, 2018 Cody Kessler, 2018 Colt McCoy, 2019 David Fales, 2025 Kedon Slovis, and 2025 Cam Miller.
And this is exactly why, after his third preseason game, Kubiak said of Mendoza:
“He needs another three preseason games … And now that the season's starting, the practice reps get smaller, and that's just life.”
There's always the question of how soon you start a No. 1 overall QB.
Since 2019, six QBs besides Mendoza were drafted No. 1 overall: Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray.
All six started Week 1 of their rookie season.
That certainly wasn't always the case.
From 2000 through 2018, 13 QBs were drafted No. 1 overall, and only six started in Week 1 (46%).
There's no way Mendoza starts Week 1. Or Week 2.
He's simply not ready.
And that's fine.
When your biggest weakness in the preseason is understanding pressure, dealing with it, and protecting yourself, how do you practice that during the season as a backup QB?
How does a coach know when you're ready to start?
It's not as if Mendoza was great with certain packages.
It's not as if he struggled in a minor area that they can easily work on with the scout team and get a good understanding of when it's resolved enough to start.
This is a difficult situation that could massively impact Mendoza's future if he's hit too much and either affected mentally or injured physically.
Here's the other factor: the Raiders play the NFL's #2 toughest schedule of pass rushes this year.
SEVEN games against top-eight pass rushes from 2025.
These defensive coordinators will tee off on Mendoza, knowing how poorly he handled pressure this preseason.
So when is Mendoza ready to start?
I fully expect Kubiak to say we're “going with Cousins in Week 1 and Mendoza will learn.”
But when you say that, you can't insert Mendoza until you know he's actually ready to go, or you'll get slammed by everyone.
If the point is “he's not ready,” when you put him in, he had better look ready.
He can't look like he did in the preseason.
Given what we saw in the preseason, if Cousins were to get injured in Week 1, I'm not sure Kubiak would want Mendoza to start in Week 2.
He might want O'Connell to give Mendoza more time.
Would he actually make that call?
I doubt it since Mendoza is the No. 1 pick, but it would have to go through his mind given what we saw this preseason.
I don't think the Raiders rush Mendoza, and that's just fine.
It's not a knock on him or the Raiders for selecting him or their coaches for developing him.
In fact, it's a positive to let him sit and develop longer, given what we saw this preseason.
It also removes a ton of pressure from Mendoza and the staff early in the season.
We still don't know what Mendoza will be in the NFL, but I don't expect us to find out anytime soon.
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