Bryce Young completed only 51% of his passes for 4.4 YPA in Week 1.
The only QBs who were worse were a rookie starting vs one of the best defenses in the NFL (Cam Ward) and Russell Wilson behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.
Even if you remove the interceptions, Young ranked #28 in success (32%) and #25 in EPA per attempt (-0.24).
If we just want to look at the simplest of passes, those thrown five air yards or less, Young completed just 56% of attempts (#29) with a 13% success rate (#29), -0.54 EPA per attempt, and a mere 2.8 yards per attempt (#27).
This was despite playing most of the game in garbage time on account of his terrible early game performance putting his team in a 20-3 deficit at halftime.
The Jaguars defense kept things very vanilla for Young.
They didn’t blitz on nearly 80% of dropbacks and played no blitz zone on 72%, the #4 highest rate any quarterback faced.
Young wasn’t even pressured often, taking pressure on just 28% of dropbacks thanks to how soft the Jaguars played him.
Keep in mind, this Jaguars pass defense ranked #29 in the NFL last year.
If we try to throw out garbage time entirely, I looked at QB performance in the first half when not pressured.
Out of 30 qualifying QBs in Week 1, Young ranked:
- Dead last in EPA (-0.60)
- Dead last in success rate (20%)
- Dead last in Y/A at 3.6
- Dead last in passer rating at 27.5
How are you averaging just 3.6 Y/A on unpressured dropbacks in the first half of a game?
Thinking back to that halftime deficit, I’m reminded of this stat: The Panthers led at halftime in three of Young’s 12 starts last year.
They are now 0 for 1 this year.
In his 29 career starts, the Panthers have led at halftime in 5 of 29 (17%).
Since 2000, there have been 37 QBs to start at least 25 games in their first two years in the NFL.
Young is the ONLY QB to lead at halftime in fewer than six of his starts.
Young is the ONLY QB to lead at halftime in fewer than 20% of his starts.
So many people were backing Young based on the super small sample at the end of the year when they thought he played better, and he did play moderately better.
But even in those games, he delivered average stats against the NFL’s easiest schedule of pass defenses to close the year, with every opponent ranking 20th or worse.
There’s never been a QB who rebounded from performance like Young delivered in his first couple of years to go on to become a franchise quarterback.
Some stay around as a journeyman, but they don’t lead teams.
The Panthers put all their eggs in the Young basket this offseason.
The Panthers were the darlings to win the NFC South by many.
Yes, it’s only one game, and there certainly are opportunities to improve.
But Dave Canales has now had two full offseasons to work with Young.
He should know Young’s strengths and weaknesses and figure out how to optimize Young’s performance.
What pivot do we have after that Week 1 performance?
Surely Canales tried to use his best stuff in Week 1, and it failed miserably.
The schedule is soft, but the clock is ticking, on both Young and this coaching staff if they don’t figure out a solution quickly.