The Chiefs offense is converting just 39% of third downs this year.
That ranks #16 in the NFL.
And that’s despite averaging just 6.6 yards to go to first down, the #6 shortest distance to go.
Last year, the Chiefs averaged 6.5 yards to go but converted 49% of their third downs, the #2 best rate in the NFL.
It’s been costing them, particularly in the red zone.
They are converting just 30% of third downs in the red zone.
That ranks #10 worst in the NFL.
They are averaging -0.03 EPA per play on third downs in FG range, which ranks #20.
Last year, they averaged +0.49 EPA per play on these very plays, which ranked #3 in the NFL.
These are 4-point plays, from attempting a field goal to keeping a drive alive to score a touchdown.
We predicted their rates from 2025 would not be replicated.
But we still look at this offense, this quarterback, and this coach, and know that they should be better than ranking #10 worst in third down conversion rates in the red zone.
When that swings back positively in their favor, this team will score more points.