Sports Info Solutions (SIS) brings you the second annual edition of The SIS Football Rookie Handbook, with scouting reports and statistical breakdowns on over 280 college football players who are likely to be drafted or signed as rookie free agents in 2020 (a glossary for the below stats can be found here). New features for this year include unique and informative NFL team pages, research deep-dives by the SIS R&D team, and—for the first time ever—the NCAA version of their flagship football statistic, Total Points. Below is an excerpt from our 2020 Football Rookie Handbook which provides a look ahead to potential prospects in next year’s class.
I am not a proud man. The ink has yet to dry on rookie contracts, yet here I am, ready to turn the page on the 2020 NFL Draft in order to look ahead to next year’s event. Normally, this would be depraved, socially unacceptable behavior, but this is a strange time in the world of sports. Everything is at a standstill with the pandemic and there’s not a lot to look forward to, which has provided us with the perfect excuse to preview the 2021 NFL Draft with a focus on statistically impressive prospects.
Total Points, our proprietary player value metric, is a statistic that is highly descriptive of performance and can help us identify worthwhile prospects. Of course, we at SIS believe in combining film and data, so the numbers are not the end-all-be-all. By the same token, data ‘sees’ all the games and can attune us to observations that might otherwise go unnoticed, so we would be remiss to underutilize it.
For the purpose of this piece, we are simply attempting to identify players who 1) performed well in 2019, and 2) will be draft-eligible in 2021. Which is to say, the players included will be draft-eligible next year, but their positional rankings in statistical categories represent how they stacked up to all players in 2019 regardless of draft status. This, of course, is not intended to serve as a comprehensive ranking, and a player’s appearance (or lack thereof) here should not necessarily be interpreted to be a reflection of their draft stock. There will certainly be emergent talents who materialize from nowhere, just as there will be players who experience regression.
Because we have a good sense for who will be the top quarterbacks in 2021 — Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields — we’ll focus on other skill positions.
Running Backs
The running backs are headlined by two other Clemson players: Travis Etienne and his lesser-known backup Lyn-J Dixon. The latter surely would have enjoyed an increased workload in 2020, but Etienne’s surprise return to school means that he’ll have to continue biding his time as a spell back. As if his decision to exhaust his remaining eligibility wasn’t curious enough, Etienne was an “SIS Triple Crown” winner this season, ranking first in Total Points Per Carry, Broken/Missed Tackles Per 100, and Yards Per Carry among running backs with 100+ carries. Needless to say, he’s the prohibitive RB1 for next year’s draft class.
Oklahoma’s Kennedy Brooks has been a high-efficiency, low-volume darling the past two years for Lincoln Riley, but he has an opportunity to assume a much bigger workload in 2020. He ranked 3rd in Total Points Per Carry (0.26) and averaged 8.9 Yards Per Carry on just 119 attempts in 2018, and yet he only saw a slight increase in touches in 2019. However, Jalen Hurts’s graduation vacates 171 designed carries, Trey Sermon (54-385-4) transferred to Ohio State, and Rhamondre Stevenson (64-515-6) will be serving a suspension early in the season.
2019 Total Points Per Carry Leaders, 2021 Eligible RBs (min. 100 attempts)
| Player | College | Eligibility | Rushing Total Points / Carry (Rank) | Broken + Missed Tackles / 100 (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | Clemson | 4SR | 0.34 (1st) | 42 (1st) |
| Kennedy Brooks | Oklahoma | 4JR | 0.33 (2nd) | 33 (8th) |
| Lyn-J Dixon | Clemson | 3JR | 0.28 (3rd) | 33 (9th) |
| Najee Harris | Alabama | 4SR | 0.23 (6th) | 27 (22nd) |
| Master Teague | Ohio State | 4SR | 0.20 (9th) | 24 (39th) |
Wide Receivers
Most of the players on this leaderboard are household names who should see increased roles in 2020 considering the departures of highly productive teammates. Ja’Marr Chase won the Biletnikoff this past season and Justin Jefferson is graduating; Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III are two likely first-round receivers who leave Devonta Smith with big shoes to fill in Tuscaloosa; Chris Olave figures to be the top dog for the Buckeyes after K.J. Hill’s departure; and Rashod Bateman recorded 60 receptions, 1,219 yards, and 11 TDs as a true sophomore despite senior Tyler Johnson setting program single-season records in those very categories.
But, one of these things is not like the others! Colorado State’s Warren Jackson sits atop the Total Points Per Route Run leaderboard. Listed at 6’6”, 219 lbs., he posted 77 receptions for 1,119 yards and eight TDs as a true junior in 2019. Given the Rams’ recent success in producing NFL receivers, it seems inadvisable to discount Jackson because of his G5 pedigree. Dallas’s Michael Gallup (66-1,107-6), Minnesota’s Olabisi Johnson (31-294-3), Miami’s Preston Williams (32-428-3), and Cleveland’s Rashard Higgins (4-55-1) have a combined eight years of pro experience and Jackson almost certainly hopes to join them in the NFL next year.
2019 Total Points Per Route Run Leaders, 2021 Eligible WRs (min. 200 routes)
| Player | College | Eligibility | Receiving Total Points / Route Run (Rank) | Yards / Route Run (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Jackson | Colorado St. | 4SR | 0.12 (1st) | 3.3 (8th) |
| Ja’Marr Chase | LSU | 3JR | 0.11 (2nd) | 3.3 (10th) |
| Devonta Smith | Alabama | 4SR | 0.11 (3rd) | 3.5 (4th) |
| Chris Olave | Ohio State | 3JR | 0.10 (6th) | 3.3 (7th) |
| Rashod Bateman | Minnesota | 3JR | 0.10 (7th) | 2.6 (36th) |
Tight ends
The tight end leaderboard is headlined by third-team All-American Charlie Kolar (Iowa State) and second-team All-Big Ten selection Pat Freiermuth (Penn State), who was actually draft-eligible as a true sophomore this season due to being three years removed from high school. Both players were used in the slot at roughly the same rates—37% for Kolar and 34% for Freiermuth—and should be viewed as valuable move pieces come April 2021.
2019 Total Points Per Route Run Leaders, 2021 Eligible TEs (min. 200 routes)
| Player | College | Eligibility | Total Points / Route Run (Rank) | Yards / Route Run (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Kolar | Iowa State | 4JR | 0.09 (2nd) | 2.4 (5th) |
| Trey McBride | Colorado St. | 3JR | 0.08 (6th) | 2.3 (6th) |
| Pat Freiermuth | Penn State | 3JR | 0.07 (7th) | 1.7 (23rd) |
| Matt Bushman | BYU | 4SR | 0.06 (9th) | 2.0 (15th) |
| Ryan Luehrman | Ohio | 5SR | 0.06 (10th) | 1.6 (27th) |
Edge
This leaderboard is headlined by Kentucky’s Jamar Watson, whose 6.5 sacks in 2019 don’t jump off the stat sheet. However, his pressure rate of 25% and 0.13 Pass Rush Points/Snap were both top three in those respective categories. Interestingly, Watson did not play football until his junior year of high school.
Chris Rumph II is the son of Tennessee’s co-defensive coordinator/outside linebackers coach Chris Rumph. With program measurements of 6’3”, 225 lbs., Rumph II is undersized and will need to translate his pressure rate to more production in an expanded role in 2020.
The list is rounded out by two players who are very much not undersized. UAB’s Jordan Smith is a JUCO product who is listed at 6’7”, 250 lbs., as is Miami’s Greg Rousseau, whose 15.5 sacks as a redshirt freshman in 2019 were second only to Chase Young.
2019 Total Points Per Pass Rush Leaders, 2021 Eligible Edges (min. 100 pass rushes)
| Player | College | Eligibility | Total Points / Pass Rush (Rank) | Pressure Rate (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamar Watson | Kentucky | 4JR | 0.13 (3rd) | 25% (3rd) |
| Chris Rumph II | Duke | 4JR | 0.11 (6th) | 23% (5th) |
| Jordan Smith | UAB | 4JR | 0.11 (7th) | 19% (19th) |
| Greg Rousseau | Miami | 3SO | 0.10 (11th) | 18% (26th) |
Off-Ball Linebackers
Gone are the days of yesteryear when linebackers could get away with being a liability in coverage. Passing game impact is far more important now than it ever has been, and the term ‘two-down’ linebacker is quickly becoming antiquated. Nevertheless, we’ve attempted to identify linebackers who fared well in both pass and run defense and came up with these three names.
2019 Coverage and Run Defense Standouts, 2021 Eligible LBs (min. 200 snaps)
| Player | College | Eligibility | Coverage Total Points / Snap (Rank) | Run Def Total Points / Snap (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | Missouri | 3JR | 0.08 (4th) | 0.10 (14th) |
| Akileis Leroy | FAU | 4SR | 0.08 (7th) | 0.09 (16th) |
| Garret Wallow | TCU | 4SR | 0.07 (15th) | 0.10 (9th) |
Cornerbacks
Many of the metrics in this leaderboard are at odds with each other, but we can explain. Yards Per Cover Snap is a useful metric, but does not account for the value of takeaways like the Total Points system does. DB stats are notoriously unstable, but because the latter leverages takeaways, we tend to trust it more than raw Yards Per Cover Snap. For example, Marcus Peters ranked 53rd in Yards Per Cover Snap in 2019, but ranked 15th in Coverage Points Saved Per Snap due to his ability to generate turnovers. Many of the corners below have a similar statistical profile:
2019 Coverage Total Points Per Snap Leaders, 2021 Eligible CBs (min. 200 snaps)
| Player | College | Eligibility | Coverage Points / Snap (Rank) | Yards / Cover Snap (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Molden | Washington | 4SR | 0.11 (5th) | 0.83 (109th) |
| Thomas Graham, Jr. | Oregon | 4SR | 0.10 (11th) | 0.71 (58th) |
| Jack Jones | Arizona St. | 5SR | 0.10 (13th) | 1.39 (266th) |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | Syracuse | 4JR | 0.09 (16th) | 1.15 (213th) |
| Brandin Echols | Kentucky | 4SR | 0.09 (17th) | 0.69 (48th) |
| Bryce Thompson | Tennessee | 3JR | 0.09 (19th) | 0.80 (100th) |
Of course, it seems unlikely that all these players will become NFL starters. Size, physical ability, and quality of competition are just a few of the many factors which may preclude a successful college player from making it at the next level. While we certainly wouldn’t recommend these prospects based on statistics alone, they’re players we would recommend doing due diligence on. We’ll continue to monitor them through next season and, with any luck, you’ll be seeing a few of them in the 2021 SIS Football Rookie Handbook.